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Bernie down 8% today to 49%, Biden up 10% to 41% haha wow holy shit
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 1:57 PM Author: concupiscible ultramarine mood https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3633/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-presidential-nomination (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39682511) |
Date: March 2nd, 2020 1:58 PM Author: Underhanded Athletic Conference Roast Beef YES YES YES! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39682513) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 1:58 PM Author: charcoal sanctuary genital piercing Bloomberg: 8 Warren: 3 |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 1:58 PM Author: mind-boggling amber cuckold stain Warren behind Hillary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39682517) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 1:59 PM Author: concupiscible ultramarine mood is trump vs sloppy joe good for trump or bad for trump? seemed like he wanted to go up against commie sanders (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39682519) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 2:00 PM Author: mind-boggling amber cuckold stain This is a point of disagreement among both Dems and Reps. I think Biden is better for Trump because Biden is senile, gaffe-prone, and offends big chunks of the Dem base. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39682522) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 2:02 PM Author: charcoal sanctuary genital piercing Who does Biden offend? He's probably the least objectionable, big-tent candidate. Obama will be out campaigning for him.
There are definitely big chunks of voters who would never vote for Bernie and would silently accept another four years of Trump instead. |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 2:03 PM Author: concupiscible ultramarine mood lib voters arent enthusiastic about biden though (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39682542) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 2:04 PM Author: mind-boggling amber cuckold stain I don't agree. I think a lot of Bernie bros will stay home rather than vote for Biden. It would be Hilary 2016 all over again.
I think most Dems would fall in line behind Bernie, AND Bernie would bring a lot of new voters to the polls that Biden wouldn't. |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:16 PM Author: light contagious business firm very few 'bernie bros' didn't vote for hillary in 2016, though. the reason hillary came so close is because they DID vote for her; trump simply managed to activate a lot of white voters in the upper midwest who usually don't vote at all. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683160) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:26 PM Author: Self-centered ticket booth giraffe Trump won due to Comey sandbagging Hillary at the last minute with an Emailgate related investigation. Barr will do the same thing to Biden r.e. Burisma, it will just be a lame Hillary 2.0 carbon copy campaign with the same ending. At least Hillary made people fear her during the campaign and never really looked weak, Trump dumping on Biden is just going to be as sad as Reagan dumping on Mondale. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683208) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:34 PM Author: light contagious business firm nobody cared about 'emails' or any of that shit. trump motivated the under-motivated to vote for him, and hillary didn't. that was the difference. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683265) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Self-centered ticket booth giraffe Comey announcement brought back enough suburban women to Trump to seal the deal, same thing would happen again with Barr.
And by the way, this also would've happened in the midterms had the GOP thrown Kavanaugh under the bus, they would've kept the house. Polling for the GCB was at its tightest and under the necessary threshold for Dems to take the House the exact day prior to Kavanaugh's confirmation. |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:45 PM Author: light contagious business firm this is completely wrong. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683325) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:47 PM Author: Self-centered ticket booth giraffe She was up +6 in the polls, then Comey knocked down to +2, giving Trump the boost he needed. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683336) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 6:42 PM Author: heady dog poop (Poll believer) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683868) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:50 PM Author: purple trailer park internal respiration holy shit lol no (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683351) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:49 PM Author: Talented beta address Nobody cared about Comey (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683345) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:51 PM Author: Self-centered ticket booth giraffe Suburban Women absolutely did post-AH tape, Comey brought them back to Trump and more. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683360) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 2:01 PM Author: Beady-eyed territorial temple I have to think it's good. Nobody is getting excited for Biden. Bernie had a punchers chance at some big turn out. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39682528) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 2:02 PM Author: Underhanded Athletic Conference Roast Beef Bad for Trump. Biden wipes the floor with that orange man. Ukraine quid pro quo and impeachment investigations are reopened (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39682536) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 2:03 PM Author: concupiscible ultramarine mood lol ty
Date: March 2nd, 2020 2:02 PM Author: .;:..;:.;.:.;.,,,..,.:,.;....;,;;;..;,..,
Bad for Trump. Biden wipes the floor with that orange man. Ukraine quid pro quo and impeachment investigations are reopened |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 2:04 PM Author: Underhanded Athletic Conference Roast Beef Not sure why you're saving this. Doubling down on your embarrassment come November? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39682553) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:17 PM Author: jade wrinkle public bath Lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683167) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:26 PM Author: fragrant sandwich personal credit line Lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683201) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:28 PM Author: Self-centered ticket booth giraffe It's the opposite, Trump/Barr will sandbag Biden with same Burisma-related BS investigation in an October Surprise the way Hillary was sandbagged by Comey in Emailgate, it's a very predictable Hillary 2.0-esque campaign.
Basically, the lamer sequel. |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:17 PM Author: cracking walnut hissy fit https://twitter.com/bubbaprog/status/1234573252221120513
Lol @ picking this man to be leader of the free world. |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:23 PM Author: wild parlor electric furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683186) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:21 PM Author: 180 casino all that matters for Trump now is # of coronavirus deaths. if it stays in control he wins. if it runs rampant he loses. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683179) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:27 PM Author: Godawful Affirmative Action Blood Rage bad.
trump would crush sanders, whose views only represent maybe 15% of the us population. |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:30 PM Author: cracking walnut hissy fit Most Democratic primary voters support M4A. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683232) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:33 PM Author: Godawful Affirmative Action Blood Rage that may be. i have no idea what the poll #s are for M4A, but i'm certain that sanders' portfolio of policies represent the views of the far left wing of the country. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683253) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:38 PM Author: cracking walnut hissy fit What positions in particular do you think are unpopular, specifically in regard to Trump's position on the same issue? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683280) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:51 PM Author: Slimy halford preventive strike When you actually tell people that medicare for all means being thrown off their insurance and put on medicare they hate it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683355) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:55 PM Author: Underhanded Athletic Conference Roast Beef It's sort of like people saying they totally welcome diversity...just not in my neighborhood... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683383) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 5:11 PM Author: Godawful Affirmative Action Blood Rage m4a sounds good as a soundbite, but people would be scared to learn it's a government takeover of healthcare and all the radical changes that entails. obamacare had an extremely hard time passing on an incrementalist approach that had popular provisions such as coverage for preexisting conditions and premium subsidies.
free college for all is another ridiculous policy that excites a small fraction of the population and rightly alienates the rest.
green new deal--most americans don't give a shit. |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 6:20 PM Author: jet-lagged nighttime dragon I’ll add national rent control and the retarded fracking ban to what others said. Also open borders combined with government healthcare takeover (not M4A because it’ll never achieve competent care for all people)
I’m amused that you asked for policies people disagree with like Bernie’s entire platform isn’t retarded |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 7:44 PM Author: cracking walnut hissy fit https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/capitol-ideas/mc-nws-pa-muhlenberg-poll-fracking-natural-gas-drilling-20200227-aaozyjircnaydggpyqij2xygze-story.html
PA is almost evenly divided on a fracking ban. |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:30 PM Author: concupiscible ultramarine mood sloppy joe supporters are very tepid supporters though (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683235) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:43 PM Author: Godawful Affirmative Action Blood Rage yeah but dems as a whole hate, hate trump. biden is the least objectionable dem, middle-of-the-road. as long as dems play it conservatively and don't lurch to the far left, they have a good chance of beating trump.
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:47 PM Author: Self-centered ticket booth giraffe Just like Hillary did?
The same style of October Surprise that Comey detonated on Hillary's Campaign will be detonated on Biden's Campaign by Barr.
Biden nom = Lame Sequel to 2016, literally, a lamer villain with the plot otherwise being identical. |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:48 PM Author: Underhanded Athletic Conference Roast Beef Lmao at you forcememeing that Comey story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683339) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 6:35 PM Author: Slimy halford preventive strike Biden is 100x more personally likable than Clinton (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683842) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 6:38 PM Author: Self-centered ticket booth giraffe What you said would've held true in 2016 had Biden got the nomination back then, but Biden had no chance at the nom with Bernie's presence, it would've either been Bernie, or Obama would've dragged Biden out of the race mid-way to have him endorse Hillary and sending his voters over to her.
The differential between Trump-Biden favs in 2020 and Trump-Hillary favs in 2016 is basically the same on the net.
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 2:04 PM Author: concupiscible ultramarine mood 51% to 44% now (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39682549) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 3:47 PM Author: concupiscible ultramarine mood commie sanders done here (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683021) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:23 PM Author: marvelous nursing home trumpmos losing hoap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683189) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:50 PM Author: ruby senate Biden makes the election a referendum on trump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683350) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 4:54 PM Author: jet-lagged nighttime dragon the worst case scenario imo is biden winning the primary by a slim margin before losing to trump. the communists will try to clean house
america needs for trump to curb stomp bernie before the dnc does the same. communism in america needs to die a humiliating, painful death
so i’m a bernie bro for now |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 5:10 PM Author: Bateful Therapy Depends if you buy the theory that Biden will now let actual professionals run his campaign and not make the same mistake Hillary did of setting herself up as her own lead strategist. Biden is 10X worse as a candidate than Hillary was bc he’s gone through further cognitive decline and started from a lower peak and can’t raise money. But if he still wins the nom and then steps back and lets smarter people do everything he will crush Trump. People hated that Hillary seemed to be so calculated but with Biden there’s true upside to looking like he’s keeping his shit together, regardless of whether he’s just a vessel for his consultants. Most people want a chance to give Trump an up or down vote v Trump getting re-elected bc the Dems went nuts in their primary and made the nom the reward for passing every purity test. PA, MN and Mich are solidly lean Dem and Wisconsin, NC, AZ and FL are all coin flips for Biden starting out. And he can still cause problems in places like Georgia, Texas and Utah depending on who he picks for VP. Biden can get to 270 just with adding PA and Mich as long as he flips NE-02 and holds all the Maine EVs.
But on the other hand, Biden could remain as incompetent and shitty as he’s been for the last nine months, in which case Trump will win with 300+ EVs. |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 5:12 PM Author: Self-centered ticket booth giraffe People who assume that Biden should win because he's more favorable than Hillary forget that Trump himself is more popular than he was in 2016. Instead of being at 35% approval, Trump is now at 45% approval, making the differentials between Hillary & Biden approvals vis-a-vis Trump identical. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683482) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 6:04 PM Author: Bateful Therapy LOL uh this is a low IQ take, though somewhere in there you may have a larger point that Trump has upside to being a "winner" v. a lot of people in 2016 thinking he would lose and registering a protest vote.
But 1) the near 40% favorability as of 11/8/16 (see: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president/clintontrumpfavorability.html) was also based on the same dumb/bad electorate demographics that also said he was a 2-1 underdog in all the polling. Once you adjust those demographics he's right at his current level of 43% (see: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.) Part of the takehome here is that he has to win more than his base and must get like 5% of the electorate as independents and Reagan Dems (most of whom have already switched parties), perfectly distributed across all the swing states to eek out a win at 48%.
Second, same math applied to Hillary means she was really at more like 38-39% v the 42% she was at on 11/8/16. Meanwhile, Biden was in the 50s a year ago and went down to the low 40s/30s during impeachment/losing front runner status, and has already climbed back up above 45%. See: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/joe_biden_favorableunfavorable-6677.html#polls
So you're talking about a 2016 election where nearly 25% of the voters disliked both candidates v. a 2020 election where that group will be less than 10% of voters unless Trump can take a big bite out of Biden's current favorability trend and get him down closer to his trough in October/November 2019. Trump is going from a slight advantage in favorability after demographic adjustment to a likely disadvantage outside the margin of error, and he's already thrown his best oppo at Biden and it backfired pretty spectacularly. Trump now has cemented a narrative that he's afraid to face Biden and Biden has been through an onslaught from Trump, Congress and the rest of the Dem field, so future attacks will be neutralized with the argument that Trump is scared and getting desperate. Contrast with all the funny shit he would say about her that always got played for laughs in the fake news media, let alone on Breitbart etc.
Now could Biden still fuck this up? Anyone who paid two minutes of attention to the Dem nom race during the last nine months would be foolish to say no. But Biden with the full force of the Dem establishment behind him is a much, much stronger candidate than Hillary, assuming he doesn't embarrass himself too much with his stupidity and inability to speak clearly. But even his cognitive decline is built into his price now--the last debate he was the same garbled mess he always is, but because he didn't puke on his shoes it was a great victory for him supposedly. Biden has set himself up with the lowest expectations for his own performance of any candidate in the TV era, which is the exact opposite of what the "most qualified candidate ever" did for herself. |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 6:13 PM Author: Self-centered ticket booth giraffe "demographic adjustment"
The GE polls were absolutely correct in terms of the National PV, you're trying to cherrypick data to fit a narrative. Had you cherrypicked the data in that fashion, guess what, it would've had Trump as either the GE winner or Hillary and Trump tied in PV, which is clearly not what happened.
The dynamic of people thinking that Trump couldn't win mainly helped the GOP downballot, i.e. House races and State/Legislative races, which is why they ran ahead of him there. They were voting for a check on President Hillary. |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 6:58 PM Author: Bateful Therapy "absolutely correct" is wrong. Within normal 3% variance is correct, and therefore not out of line with historical national polling performance. But the nature of that variance was *bias* in the sampling, basically undersampling non-college white voters and oversampling blacks. And this was exaggerated in the state polls that were at more like a 5% variance and specifically in PA, Wisc and Mich which were all more like 7%. But see also the fact that the non-college aged white population will shrink 2.5% from its 2016 size by 2020. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683947) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 7:07 PM Author: Self-centered ticket booth giraffe You're talking about specific swing states here.
As for those swing state polls - remember, while WI/PA/MI had a marginal bias for Hillary - TX had a marginal bias for Trump, in general swing state performance is harder to estimate.
So my overall point about the Biden/Clinton vs. Trump Differential still stands. If you want to massage the data in those polls, you'll get polls showing Trump winning or tying Hillary in the PV instead of losing, which tells you that the polls in 2016 as a rough estimate were correct.
Which means it's not unfair to use the Hillary of 2016 as a stand-in for the Biden of 2020.
Had Biden somehow received the nomination in 2016 (which would've been unlikely due to Sanders' presence & Biden likely splitting the centrist vote with Hillary), then yes, the differential between Biden & Trump for the argument you're making would've held true in 2016, but it's not 2016. |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 6:27 PM Author: Self-centered ticket booth giraffe Also, lol @ this line
" so future attacks will be neutralized with the argument that Trump is scared and getting desperate"
Nope, the letter Comey sent to Chaffetz reduced Hillary's favs in a way that was fairly effective in that they absolutely tanked. Also, remember the email investigation started with the GOP referring Hillary's Private Email Server to the FBI, and Mccarthy even bragged about the electoral purpose of the investigation.
Now think very clearly, what was Trump impeached for? For ordering an investigation into Biden - just as nonsensical as the one into Hillary, with the GOP attacking Biden just as they did against Hillary and with William Barr in charge of coordinating the Biden Ukraine investigation instead of Comey.
What do you think is going to happen? It's going to be the same exact playbook with Barr instead of Comey hitting Biden over the Ukraine in the form of an October Surprise.
It's literally going to be one of those straight-to-video sequels where the plotline is virtually the same, but the villain is more lame. |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 6:51 PM Author: Bateful Therapy Agree this is what will happen, I just disagree that it's going to work to convince any independents to vote for Trump in a Trump referendum election. Also it's a 100% false equivalence to equate Hillary being called out again for her decades of shady behavior v. Joe Biden being accused of helping his fuck-up kid when he was quite blatantly in line with all of the (neolib/neocon) establishment view on Ukraine and there were a parade of witnesses in the impeachment hearings that essentially defended him. Marie Yovanovitch and Fiona Hill basically cut Biden campaign ads in their impeachment hearings, and I wouldn't be surprised to literally see Vindman on stage at the DNC. The guy who installed Her home server wasn't available to provide the same kind of defense of Hillary's objectively shady and secretive behavior, let alone the fact that the Clintons somehow became billionaires by running a "charity" after leaving office.
Bottom line is that Hillary was a uniquely disliked figure in a way that Biden is not at all. He's clearly not the sharpest tool in the shed, but that hasn't stopped especially low information independents from voting for an otherwise mainstream POTUS candidate plenty of times in the past. |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 6:58 PM Author: Self-centered ticket booth giraffe You could say the same for all of Hillary's witnesses r.e. emailgate - none of whom were ever charged, or the time Hillary was grilled by the House for 10 hours straight and they got nothing from her.
People perceived Bill as untrustworthy and corrupt and he still got reelected in a landslide.
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 7:16 PM Author: Bateful Therapy LOL Hillary is not Bill. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39684043) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 7:33 PM Author: Self-centered ticket booth giraffe Bill is the one who encouraged Trump to run in the first place.
Any Republican nominee would've had similar favs as Hillary by the time Trump was finished damaging them with his national enquirer/gatewaypundit-tier conspiracy theories/slanders, Trump basically did to Cruz in 4 months with his attacks, what took 20 years to happen to Hillary.
Which means any other GOP nominee would've essentially had similar favs going into the GE, the only difference is that Comey would've released his letter in late Sept before the debates instead of late Oct. Remember, Rudy was wondering throughout the entire month of Oct. why his special surprise for Hillary hadn't happened yet, and that was because the Trump-Russia investigation occupied resources that would've otherwise gone to the Weiner investigation sooner. Any other GOP nominee would've been just as damaged as Trump without the same October Surprise Comey boost.. |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 7:04 PM Author: Zombie-like parlour LOL, do you work for Biden or something? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683981) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 7:17 PM Author: Bateful Therapy No but I'm also not some kind of faggot male nurse either, so we don't have much to discuss career-wise. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39684046) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 8:23 PM Author: Zombie-like parlour LOL pencil dick, how the FUCK do you ever collect so many monikers? Do you realize how insane you are? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39684450) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 5:13 PM Author: Carmine hairy legs all the pollsters, media and important bloggers/tweeters are being paid to create a blitz on the voters and stampede them into voting biden...this was all set up days ago (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683485) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 6:36 PM Author: razzle-dazzle jew death wish insane. biden has no chance. unfortunately i am already maxed out on NO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683847) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 6:39 PM Author: Copper offensive property liquid oxygen He needs to drop out and make room for the BERG (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39683858) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 7:12 PM Author: aromatic lodge cuckoldry the election comes down to 100 iq essentially apolitical boomers in states like Wisconsin. which is why you should be very careful listening to hot takes from very online millennial politics nuts.
i dont know if trump beats biden. anyone who tells you they know--either way--is full of shit imo |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 7:44 PM Author: exhilarant outnumbered hell circlehead 100iq? Ljl try 75 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39684161) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2020 8:09 PM Author: alcoholic shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4458340&forum_id=2#39684326) |