In late February, Exeunt knew there was going to be a problem: the virus had spread outside of China, and Western countries were not up to the task of containing it. Hence we would have a massive stock market crash. This was a very non-trivial prediction. This was despite the world's stock market having not moved an inch since the virus's emergence. Despite already 2 months of the world viewing the hellish landscape in China. Despite the Chinese having contained it, begun getting back to work, and the Chinese stock market shrugging it off and returning back to normal. Despite the deceleration in South Korea and successful containment in Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, etc. which did not employ China's draconian policies. Despite uncertainties about the virus's infectiousness and fatality parameters. Despite its tendency to kill mainly the old and ill. Despite the many examples in recent years of hyped viruses which had zero impact on the economy, from Ebola and SARS to Zika and swine flu. Exeunt knew that this virus was going to be very bad, and that the market had not priced in this information because sometimes the market can be very irrational.

Exeunt was right and, in the next 3 weeks, the market plummeted 30%+, the biggest and quickest stock market decline in history.

In late March, Exeunt suspected the market had priced in everything and would rebound quickly. He looked at the daily new infections in NYC and noticed they had leveled off. From the fact that NYC is the financial capital of the world where many of the money-heads reside, it was reasonable to surmise that the worst was over: If things can be contained in NYC, then it can also be contained elsewhere. This was despite the virus spreading to new hot spots in America and around the world. Despite the imprecision of data, the dearth of testing, and the heterogeneous nature of vast parts of the country. Despite the record high unemployment numbers. Despite the unprecedented nature of a simultaneous global shutdown. Despite months and perhaps years of social distancing. Despite repressed consumer demand, structural deficiencies being exposed, and an already overvalued market on top of a 10-year bull run. Despite the media blaring doomsday scenarios and the surgeon general warning of "the worst 2 weeks of our lives ahead" and the president blabbering about "death". Exeunt ignored all of this noise; after all the market only focuses on the essential. It is highly efficient, forward-looking, and quickly prices in. Exeunt calmly and coolly surveyed the publicly available data. He graphed the case count in NYC, cross-referenced with the situation in Seattle, and confirmed that the virus had become a big ol' nothingburger. The market was on its way to bouncing back, to 2018 levels, within 2 weeks.

(Note: I lost money on the way down AND on the way up.)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502785&forum_id=2#39972315)

yes broke

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502785&forum_id=2#39972490)

for example:

http://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=4487051&mc=14&forum_id=2#39860080

Date: March 25th, 2020 1:24 PM

Author: exeunt (0x6c542c3a976e324ccb84d594cbc084bd57597849)

feels like a bull trap to me.

my guess is if NYC doesn't see a yuuge surge in ICU patients and italy 2.0 in the next week or two, the bottom is in and you should buy stocks like crazy.

if NYC is italy 2.0, then we go down another 25% from here.

will NYC become italy 2.0? im leaning toward yes, but i could be wrong.

--

in this case, my guess was wrong (nyc was NOT italy 2.0), but once the trajectory for NYC became clearer, i started buying stock, but didn't go hogwild. i brought my portfolio closer to neutral risk, not overweight.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502785&forum_id=2#39972496)

a 30% stock market crash that mirrored precisely one city's disease trajectory. sure NYC is important, maybe even the most important, but there are hundreds of important cities out there.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502785&forum_id=2#39972609)

also it's not hard to reason that NYC is critical to what the market does as it's literally the the center of the financial universe.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502785&forum_id=2#39972618)

so even if the bat flu kills a lot of people in new orleans or some other "unimportant" area like that, it probably won't move the markets much

not saying that it should be this way but you can kind of tell by the way that people zone out a bit as soon as they hear that poor black communities are getting hit hard by the virus

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502785&forum_id=2#39972712)

market is fairly priced at this point for a long-term investor given that catastrophic runaway virus risk is off the table. if you compare the news from 3/13 versus today, the news is MUCH better.

i think you can make 6% real long term buying stocks right now. you can do better if you buy smaller cap value stocks that have been murdered in the downturn, and even better with certain high yield bonds.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502785&forum_id=2#39972568)

note that this kind of recommendation is often useless as i have no idea what your overall portfolio looks like and what your benchmark is.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502785&forum_id=2#39972600)

k buying 500 eth tomorrow morning then

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502785&forum_id=2#39972799)

i'm beginning to think the inexplicable outcome of exeunt always winning has something to do with clique

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502785&forum_id=2#39976598)

Having said that, he probably has some type of Shaman DNA that gives him transcendental powers. Like what psychics or schizo bums have except he's an azn male so he's not scatterbrained and uses the insight to make money. Whatever it is, it's something way beyond the scope of Clique which is just a de facto system for assigning caste/hierarchy. He still doesn't get invited to Parties and has to work for himself or else he'd be permanently Entry-Level at some Office with boomers and Women and would be the "smart one" that gets paid the least. He's basically a high Loser but with some Nerd cred.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4502785&forum_id=2#39982031)