There is a very good reuters article about German's earliest infection in cluster in Jan in Munich due to a Chinese visitor

1) Its extremely infectious: One infected chinese employee infected 16 germans in just the 3~4 days she was there in germany and before even she developed a fever. so we know most of the population will get infected until we develop herd immunity

2) additional important data point - 15/16 developed symptoms. so completely asymptotic infections are extremely rare < 10%

3) now germany has extremely widespread testing pretty much on demand and is testing roughly 500K a week and has already tested 1.5M. So we can very safely say that most ppl with even moderate/mild symptoms are getting tested. Based on (2) we know that completely asymptotic in the best case is ~10%

So Germany is catching at least 1/3 to 2/3rd of all infections and mostly likely at least half of the infections

4) german hospitals are not overrun so everybody is getting the best care possible

Current death rate in Germany is 1.9% so lower bound floor is at least 0.6% (germany is catching only 1/3 of infections) and more likely to be closer to 1.2%

so we have a virus that if left unchecked will infect at least 60% of population and kill at least 0.6%~1.5% of infected ppl and this is assuming health systems are not overrun

For US with no shut down and social distancing that means deaths would have been 1.5M~3.5M (0.6%~1.5% of 250M) assuming everybody got the best care possible with no hospital capacity issues

I guess XO fraudvirusmos would argue that most of those 2.5M (midpoint of 1.5M~3.5M) would be old or very fat ppl so we shouldnt give a fuck but i think we can at least safely conclude that virus is not a fraud from a health perspective

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-germany-defences-i/pass-the-salt-the-minute-details-that-helped-germany-build-virus-defences-idUSKCN21R1DB

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39977771)

https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1248237484355567617

EDIT: link to study here:

https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_0.pdf

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39978552)

https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt.pdf

The page may have been deleted or moved. If you have entered the URL manually in the browser, please check the spelling. If you followed a link, please send us an email using our contact form and tell us the address where the link was called.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39978777)

https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt_0.pdf

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39978821)

"An existing immunity of approx. 14% (antiSARS-CoV2 IgG positive, specificity of the method>, 99%) was found. About 2% of the individuals had a current SARS-CoV-2 determined using the PCR method infection on. The infection rate (current infection or already gone through) was a total of approx. 15%. The lethality (case fatality rate) based on the total number of infected in the community of Gangelt is based on the preliminary data from this study about 0.37%. Currently in Germany from Johns-Hopkins University calculated lethality is 1.98% and is 5 times higher. The mortality based on the total population in Gangelt is currently 0.06%."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39978839)

What does this part mean?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39981711)

when the denominator is 'entire population of Gangelt, infected or not' = lethality is 0.06%.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39981798)

so OK instead of my lower bound of 0.6% its 0.4% based on this one specific german town. 14% were infected in just a few weeks so without shutdown you can safely assume 70% would have been infected before virus ran out of steam through herd immunity

so what is 0.4% of 70% of US population? 1M deaths then

Based on munich cluster and German testing data I was guessing 0.6% IFR. This study is showing 0.37%

Still 12x worse than the worst flu since 0.4% would imply roughly 1M deaths if nothing is done while the worst flu season is roughly 80K deaths

and this is assuming hospitals are not overrun and ppl get focused medical care. if we hadn't done anything we would have 3M cases already and every single hospital system except in deep SD or NEB or WY would be overrun by now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39983624)

OP misses the mark because he is comparing total shutdown with doing nothing, whereas most fraudvirus believers think olds & those with preexisting conditions should be quarantined but not others

Now let's see OP link to a single study done of the economic damage caused by total shutdown, the increases in suicides, the increases in depression, and the loss of overall health due to increased poverty

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39978441)

And they cheat by pretending that we would have done absolutly "nothing: We would have done culturally imposed masks and culturally imposed WFH for people who could WFH. Concerts and movies would have been largely empty anyway.

We shoould have just protected olds and fats while having thye virus spread as fast as possible to everyone else.

We heavily overreacted.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39978445)

For US with no shut down and social distancing that means deaths would have been 1.5M~3.5M (0.6%~1.5% of 250M) assuming everybody got the best care possible with no hospital capacity issues

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39978496)

Are we just ignoring the cruise ship info now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39978725)

i am talking about completely asymptotic persons. what did the cruise ship stats show?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39978785)

At the time of testing, 46.5% (331) of the 712 infected individuals were asymptomatic, and “statistical models of the Diamond Princess outbreak suggest that 17.9% of infected persons never developed symptoms,” wrote Ms. Moriarty of the CDC COVID-19 response team, and associates.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39981717)

See Vò, Italy & Iceland & Gangelt

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39981795)

Iceland 50% no symptoms

https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-mass-testing-experiment-italian-town-covid-19-outbreak-1493183

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html

https://tg24.sky.it/cronaca/2020/03/25/coronavirus-virologo-andrea-crisanti.html

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39983707)

even if we take this german study as conclusive then do the math on US fatalities with no shelter in place or shut downs. assume 0.5% IFR instead of 0.4% IFR since we are more obese than germans

unless the virus disappears due to seasonal effects (and zero evidence of that so far) we would have at least 200M infections by end of fall if we just lived normally. 0.5% IFR implies 1M deaths. and this is assuming that health systems are not overrun and we are able to save everybody who could have been saved

also lot of ppl fall terribly terribly sick even if they dont require hospitalization. they pretty much take a month to recover back to normal condition. lets say thats 10% of IFR.

so we will have a million deaths and 20M terribly sick people in7 months or so if we did nothing. this is based on the german study that fruadvirus poasters love

the problem here is not the IFR. it could even be 1% but the problem is R0. if this was like the flu in terms of infectiousness but 5x more deadly (0.5% IFR vs 0.1% for flu) nobody would give a shit and we would have no shut downs

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39986387)

there's been several studies showing seasonal effects. the virus generally appears where you'd expect it accordingly to weather.

> 200M infections

Every large scale sample shows that herd immunity occurs around 20%. Princess cruise had ~700 of ~3700, for ~20% infection. This German study shows 15%.

The very sick people are first to die. So even if more are infected, it's likely that there's diminishing returns for the virus infections. Smaller proportions of people should die if the virus infects 60% of the population.

So what if 100k-200k very old and very sick people die from the coronavirus? We'll just end up with much milder flu seasons the next couple years.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39986743)

not sure why you think that means they got herd immunity at 20%?. the virus couldnt infect as many ppl bcos of the lockdown. without any restrictions and ppl just doing normal cruise activities and hanging out lot more than 20% of ppl would have been infected. probably 60-70% in both cruise ship and the german town

200K deaths @ 0.5% IFR would imply only 40M infections total if we didnt do anything and just lived life normally. after seeing infections ramp up from less than 100 cases in early march to 200K by end of march and 500K now u really think we would have only 40M infections in 2020 in US if nothing was done at all? ridiculous

problem with this virus is not that its roughly 4x~5x fatal. the problem with this virus is that its 10x more infectious

if you told me there will be only 40M infections and 200k deaths then nobody would support a shutdown or even social distancing or wearing a face mask. we would just old ppl to stfu. flu season routinely infects 20M ppl and kills 60K. this will be just a bad flu season

but its clear that infections would be not 40M but almost 220M by winter if nothing was done. and while 200K would be tolerable 1.5M or so (additional deaths due to collapse of hospitals) wont be at least not for our leaders or normies

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39986792)

Any evidence to support this?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39986806)

based on cruise ship R0 was estimated to be roughly 2.3

an infectious virus with R0 > 2 and no immunity means population is going to be infected till herd immunity

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32097725

Estimation of the reproductive number of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the probable outbreak size on the Diamond Princess cruise ship: A data-driven analysis.

Zhang S1, Diao M2, Yu W3, Pei L3, Lin Z4, Chen D5.

Author information

Abstract

BACKGROUNDS:

Up to February 16, 2020, 355 cases have been confirmed as having COVID-19 infection on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. It is of crucial importance to estimate the reproductive number (R0) of the novel virus in the early stage of outbreak and make a prediction of daily new cases on the ship.

METHOD:

We fitted the reported serial interval (mean and standard deviation) with a gamma distribution and applied "earlyR" package in R to estimate the R0 in the early stage of COVID-19 outbreak. We applied "projections" package in R to simulate the plausible cumulative epidemic trajectories and future daily incidence by fitting the data of existing daily incidence, a serial interval distribution, and the estimated R0 into a model based on the assumption that daily incidence obeys approximately Poisson distribution determined by daily infectiousness.

RESULTS:

The Maximum-Likelihood (ML) value of R0 was 2.28 for COVID-19 outbreak at the early stage on the ship. The median with 95% confidence interval (CI) of R0 values was 2.28 (2.06-2.52) estimated by the bootstrap resampling method. The probable number of new cases for the next ten days would gradually increase, and the estimated cumulative cases would reach 1514 (1384-1656) at the tenth day in the future. However, if R0 value was reduced by 25% and 50%, the estimated total number of cumulative cases would be reduced to 1081 (981-1177) and 758 (697-817), respectively.

CONCLUSION:

The median with 95% CI of R0 of COVID-19 was about 2.28 (2.06-2.52) during the early stage experienced on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. The future daily incidence and probable outbreak size is largely dependent on the change of R0. Unless strict infection management and control are taken, our findings indicate the potential of COVID-19 to cause greater outbreak on the ship.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39986887)

Real world outbreaks, on the other hand, show that up to 20% of a population will contract a respiratory virus in any given season.

It's been true of the cruise ship, it's true of Gangelt.

edit: should add that the "60%" infection number that's thrown around is for MULTIPLE seasons

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39986993)

if there were do you think its reasonable to take a penetration rate of 20% as the final number absent such restrictions?

what evidence do you have for this coronavirus that once it hits 20% it will die down due to herd immunity? the examples you showed (cruise ship and gangelt) slowed down transmission by human intervention. not by acquired immunity

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39987024)

vast majority (if not all) flu seasons infection up to 20% of the population.

even outbreaks like the 1968 hong kong flu that we should have decent data for, there was a 15% infection of Hong Kong (the epicenter).

here's Birx stating the data does not match the doomsday scenario -- "Models are models," she said. "When people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it's very scary, but we don't have data that matches that based on our experience."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39987082)

the reason that we havent yet seen more than 20% is simply because no country has let the virus run its course after flare up for at least 3 months. india shut it down when they had 300 cases, US when in mid march when we had only 75 cases on march 1 and so on. so lack of data doesn't mean it can't happen. there is simply no control group here bcos everybody starting from China to India have imposed lock downs, stay at home orders, contact tracing and quarantines to suppress and break the transmission chain

at this point we are just guessing - your guess is based on past flu like viruses and i am guessing based on estimated R0. but the fact that every government in the world including level headed, well run technocratic societies like singapore, germany think they need to shutdown entire country for this virus lends weight to the fact that they think this is highly infectious with high R0 and would infect most of the country absent shutdown

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39987161)

assume cases double every week (very conservative) since in reality it doubled every 4~5 days before shutdown. so rate of growth is 10%

Xo=75, r=10%, t=155 days

we would be at > 200M cases in 156 days and at that point rate of growth would slow down drastically due to herd immunity

so do nothing = 200M infections, roughly a million deaths (maybe more due to ICU overload) by end of august

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39986860)

Fraud virus or bad virus?

Looks like fraud from what i read above...

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39981812)

so even with fraudvirusmo statistics if we treat this as just the flu and didn't do anything we would have hit ~1M deaths and that is assuming everybody gets the best possible healthcare which would be impossible when just NYC has 1M active cases and 100K requiring ventilators. and we also have to adjust for the fact that americans are lot more obese than germans so our IFR will be more than 0.4%

do nothing ~ at least 1.2M deaths (1M due to disease, assume 200K due to collapse of hospitals leading to ppl who could have been normally saved dying)

i think this is still bad virus based on these numbers

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39983666)

The mortality based on the total population in Gangelt is currently 0.06%.

The mortality based on the total population in Gangelt is currently 0.06%.

The mortality based on the total population in Gangelt is currently 0.06%.

The mortality based on the total population in Gangelt is currently 0.06%.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39983678)

imagine the shelter island where isolated tribes live and the missionary was killed. their fatality rate is 0.0%. does it mean anything? can we say fraudvirus bcos it didnt kill anybody in shelter island even though none were even infected?

only 15% totally infected so far. but you use the entire population for denominator to do death rate? wtf

if nothing was done to this german town and after a year only 15% were ever infected then you could make this argument but that would imply that the disease is not that much infectious but even fraudmos accept that its very infectious. infact their argument is that most ppl get it and dont even know it and very few die. but this study shows that only 14% got it before things were shutdown which is bad for fraudvirusmos because it blows up your argument that most ppl have already been infected with asymptotic/mild symptoms

in fact you could make the argument that since 15% have already been infected (a sizable % of the population) and absent some unrepresentative data due to some unique transmission chain you could expect the 0.37% to hold if you just let things be normal and 80% of the town gets infected before virus die down due to immunity

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39983741)

NYC ventilator use peaked at 5,000 and is declining...

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4503611&forum_id=2...id#39987015)