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Pa.'s election bellwether is getting redder: GOP narrowing voter gap in Northamp
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Date: September 26th, 2020 3:33 AM Author: anal plaza weed whacker
Pa.'s election bellwether is getting redder: GOP narrowing voter gap in Northampton County Updated Sep 25, 1:27 PM; Posted Sep 24, 7:30 AM 2020 Election, Route 248 in Northampton County (Swing County Swing State) One sign on Route 248 in Palmer Township declares the area to be "Biden country," but a neighbor's sign outside the gated property next door shows support for Trump. Northampton County Republicans have somewhat narrowed the voter registration gap with Democrats over the last several years, and their push for Trump is ongoing, though Democrats still have the majority in the bellwether county.Steve Novak | For lehighvalleylive.com
Facebook Share Twitter Share By Steve Novak | For lehighvalleylive.com This is one in a series of stories that are part of Swing County, Swing State, a collaborative project between lehighvalleylive.com and nj.com that explores Northampton County’s critical role in the upcoming presidential election.
Northampton County, a critical area for the 2020 presidential campaigns in Pennsylvania, is getting redder.
There are still more Democrats registered to vote here, but Republicans have been narrowing the gap for years, including a push this summer.
The trend is the same on the state level. In fact, Pennsylvania as a whole – and Northampton County specifically – have more voters currently registered than in either of the last two presidential elections, with Republicans making gains in most counties over the last four years, according to a lehighvalleylive.com analysis of state registration data.
“I know we’re a Democrat (majority) county,” said Lee Snover, chair of the Northampton County Republican Committee. “Here’s the thing with Northampton County: A Republican has a chance to win.”
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(Can’t see the chart? Click here.)
Northampton County has earned a reputation as a national bellwether. All but three times since 1920, the candidate Northampton County voters selected assumed the presidency.
As of this week, Northampton County has about 220,000 registered voters. That’s almost 8,000 more than were registered in the 2016 general election when the county backed Donald Trump, and almost 10,000 more than in 2012 when it supported Barack Obama’s re-election.
Registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 31,000 in the 2012 election. That gap shrank to 25,600 in 2016 and so far in 2020 it has been reduced further – there are now about 21,600 more Democrats than Republicans.
Snover said the GOP has made a strong push for registration this year. Particularly over the summer months, she said organizers have found new events to reach potential voters.
The county’s rural northern tier, including Lehigh and Moore townships, has been a particular boon and Snover said the party is gleaning new voters out of residents who have never previously registered. Many, she said, are signing up not out of any particular allegiance to the party but in support of Trump.
(Can’t see the chart? Click here.)
On the other side, Matthew Munsey, the chair of the Northampton County Democrats, said his party has been hampered in registration drives since COVID-19 has cancelled many of their usual events and activities. Instead, he said, local Democrats are focusing on driving voter turnout rather than registration.
The bulk of Democratic voters are still expected in the cities and suburbs, but Munsey told lehighvalleylive.com that the party may yet see gains in the farther-flung areas. Phone banks, mailing and social media target voters who may be on the fence, including independents and some Republicans, encouraging them to vote for Joe Biden. He noted some Republicans have pledged to support Biden over Trump.
“We’re finding Democrats very enthusiastic,” Munsey said. “They’re very anxious, they’re seeing a lot of Trump signs going up ... They’re reaching out because they want to see more Biden signs in their area.”
(Can’t see the map? Click here.)
Broadening the scope, similar situations appear to be playing out across Pennsylvania. The state has 8.8 million registered voters so far this year, up from 8.7 million in 2016 and 8.5 million in 2012.
In the last four years, Republicans have gained about 183,000 registered voters on Democrats, including in most counties in and around the Lehigh Valley. A monthly analysis by the Pennsylvania Capital-Star shows the trend continuing in the short term in some majority-Democrat Philadelphia suburbs like Bucks County.
However, Democrats still hold the advantage with 4.1 million registered voters to Republicans' 3.4 million.
But, as Munsey noted, registration is not necessarily indicative of how an election will go.
“Honestly, I’m not that concerned because we still have a huge registration advantage,” Munsey told lehighvalleylive.com. “The registration numbers are not relevant to predicting an election. ... It’s about turnout and how people vote.”
The voter registration deadline in Pennsylvania is Oct. 19 and can be completed online at register.votesPA.com; by printing and mailing a downloadable form; or by going to certain government agencies, like a PennDOT driver’s license center.
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