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Anyone who thinks Trump won that debate has at best a 97 IQ.
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:15 AM Author: Trip nofapping step-uncle's house turdskin Certainly Biden wasn't amazing, but it isn't hard to be the best scuffling retard when one of the scuffling retards literally tells a white supremacist Nazi group to STAND BACK AND STAND BY while refusing to disavow white supremacists.
I know XO is fucking racist as fuck, but moderate voters aren't white supremacists and they don't want to be considered them either. |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 12:26 PM Author: Coral swashbuckling space Trump's supporters are around 90 IQ so there you go. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41018341) |
Date: September 30th, 2020 9:16 AM Author: Ebony cracking deer antler Knew this would be Rudy or MDH before I clicked. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017062) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:19 AM Author: Trip nofapping step-uncle's house turdskin OK. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017081) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:17 AM Author: Thirsty kink-friendly native Its not about "winning" the debate. Its about getting elected. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017065) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:18 AM Author: Trip nofapping step-uncle's house turdskin Sure. That's true. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017072) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:32 AM Author: translucent library if by "winning the debate" you mean talking heads and people on the internet thinking he did a good job, then he lost.
if by "winning the debate" you mean "increasing his chances of being elected", then he won by a lot.
he was a big dumb fucking bully but it played to 97iq people. |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:36 AM Author: Mind-boggling domesticated stock car it's amazing libs still dont get this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017182) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:44 AM Author: translucent library they made the same mistake in 2016. from then until now i kept talking about how "they wouldn't be stupid enough to make the same mistake twice"
boy, i was wrong. |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:56 AM Author: buck-toothed racy people who are hurt The debates didn't help trump in 2016 though and there's no evidence that he gained anything from last night (three scientific polls and the betting markets show an L). I agree that the CNN histrionics are dumb (they are missing the broader point that political traditions like tv debates are fast becoming incongruent with modern politics and pointless theatre). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017313) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 10:00 AM Author: Mind-boggling domesticated stock car The trouble is that according to libs there's no evidence that anything ever helps Trump and everything he does is a "collapse." And yet he wins. Are you seeing the problem here? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017336) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 10:06 AM Author: buck-toothed racy people who are hurt I never said his support would collapse. Not everything Trump does is brilliant. Trump is supported by a system and state of affairs in which each party will always get about 45% of the vote at the presidential level. Last night won't improve his chances at winning, but he can definitely win anyway. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017374) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 10:14 AM Author: Mind-boggling domesticated stock car You're missing the point. What things helped Trump win in 2016? List things where there is "evidence" he "gained" from it. If you cant, what is the utility of your metric? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017437) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 10:30 AM Author: buck-toothed racy people who are hurt What's your metric other than "Trump 8D chess"? The "how did trump win" statistical analysis has been done to death. Nate Cohn and Nate Silver provide comprehensive analysis of what happened. The debates don't figure in to the win. And they rarely do for candidates. Things like the late Comey email controversy, Clinton's unlikeability, Trump's populist anti-trade pitch in the midwest, clinton's failure to campaign in key states were key factors.
The reality is that each candidate is going to get about 45% of the vote. No one is going to fall below that threshold unless you have perot third party candidate. That you guys find brilliance in trump getting 46% of the vote is just indicative of how retardedly partisan our system is. |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 10:35 AM Author: Mind-boggling domesticated stock car If you think Trump won simply because of Hillary being unlikeable and her emails then I doubt I can help you. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017548) |
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Date: October 1st, 2020 4:11 AM Author: lilac titillating rehab ‘ List things where there is "evidence" he "gained" from it.’
LTM hens and haws like a retard for 500 words. Has zero in the way of actual response. |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 10:45 AM Author: grizzly hyperventilating sweet tailpipe generalized bond LTM? You are response?? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017631) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 12:03 PM Author: translucent library i don't trust statistics gathered and analyzed over night. especially when it comes to trump. there are just so many people that will lie to register support for biden but change their mind in the voting both. it also doesn't account for enthusiasm and the odds that supporters will actually vote. the polling takes people at their word (i support biden (often a lie) and i plan to vote (often a lie)).
i'm not a trumpmo and i really hate how many retarded poasters who bash data analystics here. but i'm very skeptical. i'm just going with my gut as a guy with a very prole background. |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 12:24 PM Author: buck-toothed racy people who are hurt I think the scientific debate polls have been good. They correctly captured Romney’s win in the first debate against Obama and that win did give Romney a small boost. I don’t think I’ve every seen a debate poll show a result that was directly contrary to polling movements immediately afterwards (which is your argument here). I don’t think trump’s debate performance did him any good in 2016 and there were many more undecideds that year. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41018321) |
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Date: October 1st, 2020 3:43 PM Author: translucent library if the debate polling is flawed for the reasons i've said then the general polling is flawed too. many trump voters won't publicly say they vote for trump and will instead say they're voting for biden or are undecided.
what's really telling and supports my argument is trump and gop polling versus actual results. they both consistently outperform. something isn't being captured or analyzed accurately. the polls necessarily must assume that people will vote for who they say they will and vote if they say they will. |
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Date: October 1st, 2020 4:02 PM Author: buck-toothed racy people who are hurt "they both consistently outperform."
That's really not the case. At least not to any degree that would bail trump out if these numbers hold. I think people mistake the punditry predictions heading into nov 2016 for actual polling data in 2016. Clinton did not have a lead like Biden's. Her numbers in key swing states were noticeably weaker than Obama's in 2012. The RCP average correctly predicted 46 of 50 states. Of the four states that were missed one overstated trump's support (nevada was in trump's column but hillary won it). Of the other 3, two had RCP averages that were within 3 points of the final result. And there was a dearth of polling in the upper midwest. On election day, the RCP average showed hillary winning a mere 272 EC votes (basically it correctly predicted a toss-up election). And of course, the RCP national average was right on the mark.
The polling error in 2016 was not nearly as huge as it is often made out to be and it would not be nearly enough to bail trump out here. It's possible that biden's lead will collapse but it would have to be a much bigger drop than anything Clinton experienced in 2016. Biden's numbers in RCP are much better than Clinton's ever were and have been consistently better for months. I think Silver does a decent job handicapping the odds and putting trump's chances at about 20% is fair given the history of polling. |
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Date: October 1st, 2020 4:34 PM Author: translucent library "I think people mistake the punditry predictions heading into nov 2016 for actual polling data in 2016. Clinton did not have a lead like Biden's"
i'm speaking about election outcome prediction models based on polling date
"At least not to any degree that would bail trump out if these numbers hold."
i'm not arguing trump is going to win the election, or that this will sway things in either direction. only that polls about trumps debate performance may not be accurate for the reasons i mentioned. another reason is that "winning" can be defined in different ways. i think any thinking and objective person will recognize that trumps entire performance was based on interrupting, mocking, and behaving like a 3rd grader. if this was a formal debate, he certainly "lost" in that regard. however, if you definite winning the debate "who increased their chances of being elected more", that's different. trumps strategy is effective in swaying some people.
"The polling error in 2016 was not nearly as huge as it is often made out to be and it would not be nearly enough to bail trump out here"
sure, but i'm only speaking about his debate performance and how polling data analyzing it may be inaccurate. |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 12:04 PM Author: Fragrant incel Link? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41018213) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:18 AM Author: Exhilarant new version a rare credited political poast from you (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017071) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Trip nofapping step-uncle's house turdskin TY. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017094) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:19 AM Author: splenetic station party of the first part That's not terrible. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017075) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:19 AM Author: ultramarine irradiated whorehouse headpube Biden got destroyed. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017078) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:22 AM Author: Trip nofapping step-uncle's house turdskin Dude, he certainly didn't. It's your own party's fault for telling America on Fox News that Biden was so senile he wouldn't be able to debate and that he might not show up.
He was fine. I think I saw him confused twice during the entire 1.5 hours. Trump was just as confused.
Biden looked older, for sure, but Trump gained nothing from that and then he did one of the dumbest things a standing POTUS has ever done. |
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Date: October 1st, 2020 4:47 AM Author: Hairraiser school cafeteria shitlib Overperforming a low bar for Biden wasn't the point, you're thinking like a pundit, people like us who are obsessed with politics severely overestimate how much people "think" and analyze rather than just watching and coming away with some impression
Stop thinking / analyzing, what did we see?
Trump bullying / fighting being crass and rude, a shitty moderator, and Biden who looked surprisingly old and weak (he's been better at some of his events than last night's debate).
Do you have any progressive friends? Ask what they thought about Biden last night....
This discrepancy is seen in the Telemundo poll where the split was 66 / 34, or CNN's focus group - https://twitter.com/i/status/1311186972132683776
We already knew Trump was crass, an asshole / bully - but guarantee you tons of voters who don't pay that close attention got their first real unfiltered glimpse of Biden tonight
Not sure how much debates can swing things, especially in this election - but Trump not playing by the rules that were rigged against him isn't as bad of move as everyone seems to think
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:21 AM Author: passionate friendly grandma gaming laptop Sure. But we have a lot of 97 iq mos at present. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017084) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:21 AM Author: Contagious school I was on the fence on who won until I saw that (Rudolph) thinks Biden did. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017085) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:22 AM Author: Trip nofapping step-uncle's house turdskin I won my MNF bet too bro.
It would make sense that 2020 is my year since it is not the world's. |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:24 AM Author: Haunting copper ladyboy nursing home it wasn't a 'debate.' it was an elaborate jewish psyops. no-win phraseology questions ("Tell us, Why are you a NAZI, sir?"), preposterous premises, etc. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017097) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:24 AM Author: wild rusted national (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017099) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:28 AM Author: yellow legend ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017120) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:30 AM Author: purple slimy therapy And TRUMP SMASHED it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017131) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 10:04 AM Author: motley indian lodge pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017364) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:26 AM Author: provocative digit ratio [guy jealous of the proud boys] (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017105) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:26 AM Author: Trip nofapping step-uncle's house turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017111) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:34 AM Author: zippy milk He wasn’t trying to “win.” He’s laying groundwork for calling the entire process chaotic and corrupt. That’s how he will stay in office. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017171) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:38 AM Author: supple high-end laser beams field You know who else has a 97 IQ? The average voter. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017200) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:49 AM Author: orchid talking circlehead persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017282) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:48 AM Author: Jade vibrant house mood 97 is at or above the IQ of the majority of lean democratic voters that Trump can potentially steal. He’s aiming his rhetoric at exactly the right group.
https://www.slayerment.com/files/slayerment/images/Race_IQ_Sketch_OrderFlipped.PNG |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:54 AM Author: awkward offensive nibblets point (87 IQ) A dork like ben shapiro would gape Biden in a debate but it wouldn't have been nearly as effective of what trump did to Biden's corpse. Speaking of corpses, it's no wonder the op supports Biden (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017302) |
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Date: October 1st, 2020 4:13 AM Author: lilac titillating rehab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41023508) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:56 AM Author: rose angry piazza I still don't know what to think of it. I think Biden saying "shut up" was probably the single worst moment from either of them, but Trump had more bad moments overall. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017309) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:58 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle Bistre Lay Chad They were both horrible. I don't think it helps either of them. I reckon Trump was going for the impression that he was more virulent than Biden, and he certainly did come off that way, but the constant cross-talk just led to an incoherent debate that didn't resonate at all (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017327) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 10:00 AM Author: adventurous snowy spot keepsake machete Blame Chris Wallace. Dude would never stfu (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017339) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 10:02 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle Bistre Lay Chad he did terribly in my view (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017352) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 10:09 AM Author: wonderful maroon chapel I don't understand why they can't actually DEBATE, as in argue back and forth. The 2-minute chunks are fine, but why can't they have a free for all after that? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017390) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 10:11 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle Bistre Lay Chad i agree. wallace's format basically made it impossible to effectively push back on the other candidate, which might be ok if wallace was doing it himself, but he was so distracted with trying to control trump, he never really followed up with biden on a number of statements other than once or twice. if the moderator isn't going to be effective, then let the candidates do the pressing themselves. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017407) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 10:14 AM Author: adventurous snowy spot keepsake machete Exactly. If Wallace wasn't constantly trying to talk over everyone and strictly enforce a 2 minute "rule" it would've been fine to let them go back and forth. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017436) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Charismatic sick cruise ship police squad Trump could have won had he managed to just condemn white supremacy but that Proud Boys thing was a legit disaster. That basically cost him the presidency right there. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017418) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 10:14 AM Author: Trip nofapping step-uncle's house turdskin I don't know. This guy is teflon Don, but someone legit must have told him he needs racist votes and he can't condemn white supremacists, so he won't. I'm sure it's Miller. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017431) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 10:15 AM Author: adventurous snowy spot keepsake machete Are people more concerned about proud boys than antifa? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017444) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 10:17 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle Bistre Lay Chad are the proud boys even racists? every time i see them its full of brown dudes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017452) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 10:34 AM Author: Charismatic sick cruise ship police squad It not about the Proud Boys. He just had to say "I condemn White Supremacy." He did not need to go more micro than that. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017543) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:26 PM Author: rebellious scourge upon the earth public bath its lol that trump will blatantly lie/fabricate/deny on almost anything else that benefits him but he cannot bring himself to say something bad about white supremacy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41021707) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 9:30 PM Author: Trip nofapping step-uncle's house turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41021727) |
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Date: October 1st, 2020 4:58 AM Author: bespoke stirring rigor What's the point of him condemning it (again)? We all know the journalists who ask it have already linked him to it just by asking the question and will demand another condemnation later on so they can keep linking him to it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41023535) |
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Date: October 1st, 2020 6:07 PM Author: rebellious scourge upon the earth public bath because its a simple fucking thing to do that easily shifts blame
"sigh. chris, I will tell you like I have said many times before. I'm sure I will have to again at the next debate. I condemn organizations that advocate white supremacy. unlike lefty joe here who won't even admit antifa exists."
trump sees everything in terms of cost/benefit and not taking this simple step suggests he is worried more about pissing off white supremacists |
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Date: October 1st, 2020 8:10 PM Author: bespoke stirring rigor They'll just ask him again later on to disavow them. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41028453) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 10:17 AM Author: carmine razzle principal's office So you concede they have a higher IQ than you then. I suppose that's a start. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41017450) |
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Date: September 30th, 2020 12:25 PM Author: comical antidepressant drug trump supporter If only that group could win you an election (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41018328) |
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Date: October 1st, 2020 8:21 PM Author: Puce plaza yarmulke BUT HE SHOUTED LOUD (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4637816&forum_id=2#41028488) |