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Border tp MN VBM / EV update alert

Fool! I am the Fates' lieutenant; I act under orders. ...
Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid
  10/16/20
Doesn't all of this analysis assume static voter pool number...
racy crystalline giraffe stain
  10/16/20
So when trump underperformes, he’s got voters still to...
Territorial dun idiot boistinker
  10/16/20
I think the answer is to compare the current pace (colored c...
racy crystalline giraffe stain
  10/16/20
...
Greedy theatre milk
  10/16/20
Hey friend - remember those 9 iron city mayors (can't rememb...
Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid
  10/16/20
Gop voter registration numbers have certainly been a bright ...
Greedy theatre milk
  10/16/20
Exactly - eg the D/R split in FL is the lowest it's ever bee...
Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid
  10/16/20
How do you know what percent of vote is trump v Biden Is ...
Indecent Gay Wizard University
  10/16/20
See my edit - targetsmart and these sites have detailed vote...
Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid
  10/16/20
Wow wtf
Indecent Gay Wizard University
  10/16/20
What if one were to subscribe to Field & Stream and buy ...
Histrionic gunner
  10/16/20
sick
Mind-boggling doobsian trump supporter
  10/16/20
...
Mustard Aphrodisiac Volcanic Crater
  10/16/20
...
Effete hairraiser native
  10/16/20
correct - but please throw the doobsian heatmappers off my s...
Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid
  10/16/20
...
Effete hairraiser native
  10/16/20
...
Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid
  10/16/20
...
Effete hairraiser native
  10/16/20
...
Greedy theatre milk
  10/16/20
!!!!
Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid
  10/16/20
ty friend
Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid
  10/16/20
Cliffs like I’m 5 please
smoky boyish laser beams selfie
  10/16/20
Voting numbers from early voting that oversample highly enth...
flatulent gas station multi-billionaire
  10/16/20
No, explain like I am a five-year-old little boy who is real...
Flickering Bistre Queen Of The Night Indian Lodge
  10/16/20
I second that
underhanded new version
  10/16/20
180 borders ty
purple startling newt ticket booth
  10/16/20
...
fragrant mother alpha
  10/16/20
poaster of the year
fragrant mother alpha
  10/16/20
Dakota County trumpmo checking in here, yny flip this fuckin...
passionate kitchen
  10/16/20
...
purple startling newt ticket booth
  10/16/20
180 brother
Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid
  10/16/20
180 borders tp is our last ray of hope
supple sable double fault
  10/16/20
Borders and dat trafalgar
Indecent Gay Wizard University
  10/16/20
Please respond: http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_...
orchid insanely creepy yarmulke
  10/16/20
Okay I'll respond there
Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid
  10/16/20
You said "you fools! you do not realize that people who...
Histrionic gunner
  10/16/20
yes that's what he means
Effete hairraiser native
  10/16/20
...
racy crystalline giraffe stain
  10/16/20
Yes sorry - the latter ie - there's a reason net registr...
Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid
  10/16/20
This is retardedly shallow analysis. TL;DR - every losing si...
razzle aquamarine knife dragon
  10/16/20
Nice rebuttal you got there
Mustard Aphrodisiac Volcanic Crater
  10/16/20
...
purple startling newt ticket booth
  10/16/20
wanna bring it to the white house?
Greedy theatre milk
  10/16/20
this ignores the ratios he's using the chart to illustrate -...
racy crystalline giraffe stain
  10/16/20
good poast
racy crystalline giraffe stain
  10/16/20
Why does Biden >100% mean he's running out his pool while...
rambunctious odious community account
  10/16/20
It does, but it's relative to how much of the vote is alread...
Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid
  10/16/20
I really don’t get this can u explain like I’m a...
Indecent Gay Wizard University
  10/16/20
He is saying that Trump's 33% is proportionally higher than ...
racy crystalline giraffe stain
  10/16/20
...
Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid
  10/16/20
Currently duck hunting in CD6; can confirm easy Trump landsl...
Territorial dun idiot boistinker
  10/16/20
fuck i'm jealous - bird dogs?
Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid
  10/16/20
https://ibb.co/2gxcRhV
Territorial dun idiot boistinker
  10/16/20
https://ibb.co/HHMBpj7
Territorial dun idiot boistinker
  10/16/20
180!
racy crystalline giraffe stain
  10/16/20
this all seems kind of meaningless without new registrations...
Lascivious Offensive State
  10/16/20
I think we can make a safe assumption that there is at least...
Greedy theatre milk
  10/16/20
that's my point, whether biden "running hot" with ...
Lascivious Offensive State
  10/16/20
he had a poast on voter registration increases historically ...
Greedy theatre milk
  10/16/20
so where is that data
Lascivious Offensive State
  10/16/20
hence why I would like this answered: http://www.autoadmit.c...
racy crystalline giraffe stain
  10/16/20
Why would exhausting your available pool of votes be a bad t...
Flickering Bistre Queen Of The Night Indian Lodge
  10/16/20
I think the idea would be that based on projections it would...
Greedy theatre milk
  10/16/20
correct
racy crystalline giraffe stain
  10/16/20
That sounds like comparing a blur to a shadow.
Flickering Bistre Queen Of The Night Indian Lodge
  10/16/20
It's useful to think in the extremes here
Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid
  10/16/20
Bookmarked. Note to future self: OP was Borderstp and this...
Beady-eyed primrose sanctuary
  10/16/20
Lol fag
Greedy theatre milk
  10/16/20
Lol, you freak
glittery home
  10/16/20
gibberish = animeboi = Drake Mallard = lawman8 = Voodoo Chil...
Flirting vermilion area black woman
  10/17/20
...
Mint Property
  10/17/20
...
passionate kitchen
  10/17/20
Voter fraud potential is a fatal flaw with borders' analysis...
ultramarine pit
  10/17/20
(lib trying to cope with Trump landslide)
Flirting vermilion area black woman
  10/17/20


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:06 PM
Author: Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid

Fool! I am the Fates' lieutenant; I act under orders.

Here's an analysis from my sources in MN - keep in mind friends - that if Trump wins MN, MI and WI are to the right of MN, so he probably wins those as well

Edit: Anyone doubting the accuracy of eg Targetsmart / these other sites doesn't get it - you have to know how voter files work. They're basically a massive data collection effort on all of us that not only contain our previous voting habits, but whether we subscribe to field and stream, complete consumer files on us, etc - which are then classified into corresponding partyid / vote predictions

(2) I'm going to get uber-geeky today, but it's the data scientist/mathematician in me. Let's take a deep dive into yesterday's numbers. I wanted to answer two questions:

- Where does the net vote margin banked stand today?

- What is ahead in terms of available votes to bank?

3) So, here's a graphic we can dig into. It breaks down the vote totals and vote margins banked by each of the 8 Congressional Districts in MN. I'll go from left to right, column by column and then from top to bottom, District by District.

https://imgur.com/a/CccqeRW

(4) First column shows the percentage of total vote in as of yesterday compared to 2016's total, then you can see the pct of Trump's vote today compared to '16 and Biden's % of Hillary's total. Then we have an average of Trump's share and Hillary's share.

(5) The next two columns with colors are meant to show whether one of the two candidates is running low (reddish) or high (purplish) in the pace of where they're getting votes.

(6) Think of it as

Red means you're not getting votes at the expected pace, so you have more votes you can get from here on in

Purple means you're getting votes faster than the usual pace & could exhaust your available pool of votes.

90%-110% is the usual/normal range.

(7) The next columns are net vote margins banked by each candidate and the percentages of the 2016 vote margins banked by either Trump or Hillary.

(8) So, now let's get down to the analysis of each district.

CD 1 - Trump and Biden are neck and neck here and Biden is at 134% of the pace with 23% of the vote in. I think there will be net Trump vote margin here, but question is how much. Worth watching on ED

(9) CD2 - The home district of Jason Lewis. Dakota County is the key. Blue in '16 if Trump flips it, it's probably the whole ballgame. The pacing of votes coming in is good for both, but Trump already has 154% of his votes banked from '16! Could get 20K vote margin banked here.

(10) CD3 - This one is north and east of St. Paul, including a lot of TC suburbs. Biden is over 120% of the pace, so he might be exhausting his voter pool before ED. Trump has plenty of room to get his base to the polls, and chip into Biden's margin here.

(11) CD4 - The urban St. Paul area -- Trump is below the 90% line. 85% of the pace -- shows he has MORE votes to bring in from here on in. Biden is at 124% and has banked 81% of '16 margins. He may run out of available voters to bring on ED. Look for the margin to shrink here.

(12) CD5 - Urban Minneapolis - This is where Biden has to bank votes, or it's over. But, Trump only has 7.2% of the vote he got here in '16! That is 33% of the pace. He's got a LOT of upside to bring voters on ED. Biden is def going to exhaust his voter pool at 220% of the pace.

(13) CD6 - Western Twin Cities burbs into western MN - This one has Trump with 107% of the pace and Biden at 85% of the pace -- Biden has upside but Trump already has 28% of his vote bank from '16. This one may be interesting watch for rural vote adding to Trump's margins on ED.

(14) CD7 - Colin Peterson's district in Northwestern MN - Both candidates running good on pace -- Trump with 20% of '16 vote margin banked. Turnout here of Repubs will be the story as to whether Trump gets bigger margins.

(15) CD 8 - The Iron Range and Duluth - This is the one getting all the airtime. Biden is running hot on his pace here at 143%, so could run out of voters for ED. No net vote banking happening so far. Will need to see if a vote banking trend develops for Trump before ED.

(16) CD8 continued -- if a vote banking trend does show up for Trump and Biden gets hotter on his pace, you can expect a good Republican net vote margin to show up on ED and Trump will carry this CD.

(17) So, in conclusion, Trump has a lot more upside right now and in Ilhan Omar's CD5 in Minneapolis, of all places, but Trump is looking good in CD2 also. If he can make sure he gets some vote margins banked in CD6 CD7, he still looks likely to win MN. Stay tuned here!

For all the libs thinking they're gonna own us by bookmarking these threads - you just don't get it, you weren't 'owned' in 2016 for being hopeful / making a wrong prediction, you got so many embarrassing threads bumped b/c of how obnoxious you were, eg proclaiming "lol you retards ACTUALLY think Trump can win, it" - none of us doubt that Biden could win, so it's not an own no matter what you may think (oh the Dodgers lost! owned! no retards - it's only if you say the braves CAN'T win)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125434)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 4:51 PM
Author: racy crystalline giraffe stain

Doesn't all of this analysis assume static voter pool numbers?

Additionally, what exactly is column 5?? You say avg of Trump's and Hillary's share, but I'm not quite understanding. You can't possibly mean that if in, say, CD1, Trump got 45% and Hillary got 50%, avg would be 47.5%, because the numbers on the sheet would be impossibly low. So what do you mean by their shares? Is this the average between their early vote totals before election day voting? (That would explain why you're using it to measure pace.)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41126872)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 5:34 PM
Author: Territorial dun idiot boistinker

So when trump underperformes, he’s got voters still to come? And when Biden overperforms, he’s running out of voters?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127090)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 5:41 PM
Author: racy crystalline giraffe stain

I think the answer is to compare the current pace (colored columns) to the vote lead as percentage of last vote lead (far right columns).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127123)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:06 PM
Author: Greedy theatre milk



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125439)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:15 PM
Author: Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid

Hey friend - remember those 9 iron city mayors (can't remember if that's correct term), all Democrat - who released that letter endorsing Trump? They read the tea leaves - something else we have to remember is that much of the manufacturing and types of jobs Trump's most enthusiastic base usually works at - these industries were actually hit the least hard by covid

This could also be a bellwether in terms of how people are reacting to rioting.... I'll do a FL update later today - my sources tell me they just got some numbers in from FL dem voter registration, and only 68% of blacks who registered registered in the last few weeks registered as Dem....

And for all the shit talkers about how much weight I've placed on voter registration net changes (similar to that zerohedge JMP analyst's article that was very good analyzing this data) - you fools! you do not realize that people who register to vote have an insanely high likelihood of turning out to vote...

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125491)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:28 PM
Author: Greedy theatre milk

Gop voter registration numbers have certainly been a bright spot across multiple states. Dems with thier covid focus had to abandon any plans for a ground game. I recall an article out of Florida where local Dem party was begging to get out and pins the pavement.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125558)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:43 PM
Author: Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid

Exactly - eg the D/R split in FL is the lowest it's ever been historically, GOP netted like 100k in PA if i'm not mistaken, all these registrations have an abnormally high likelihood of turnout

Here's a liberal account that creates voter maps of this stuff: https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1316886047951900673?s=20

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125656)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:12 PM
Author: Indecent Gay Wizard University

How do you know what percent of vote is trump v Biden

Is it just based on party registration

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125479)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:17 PM
Author: Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid

See my edit - targetsmart and these sites have detailed voter files - it would probably freak people out if they knew how much detailed info they have on our voter files

It contains not just our voter history, but they match it up to these consumer files these marketing companies sell - so they can tell whether we subscribe to field and stream, bought guns, vs bought a bunch of dildos and NPR subscriptions

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125505)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 2:10 PM
Author: Indecent Gay Wizard University

Wow wtf

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125830)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 2:24 PM
Author: Histrionic gunner

What if one were to subscribe to Field & Stream and buy a bunch of dildos in preparation for Hillary's fishing trip with Bill

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125909)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 2:37 PM
Author: Mind-boggling doobsian trump supporter

sick

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125979)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:15 PM
Author: Mustard Aphrodisiac Volcanic Crater



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125495)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:16 PM
Author: Effete hairraiser native



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125502)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:19 PM
Author: Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid

correct - but please throw the doobsian heatmappers off my scent

BUT.... these are not my analyses - just sources - my megathreading has contained within it like 25% on avg being my analysis - but overwhelmingly I'm just validating / gathering from places / researching - eg the voter registration claims check out like you wouldn't believe... The R-squared on those models I've ran are like 0.98

I also don't want to link every source - lest our deranged bort libs ruin some poor dude's life / some friend of mine's life, but just note this isn't all original research - i usually just check the math / logic

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125517)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:20 PM
Author: Effete hairraiser native



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125527)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:23 PM
Author: Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125543)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:24 PM
Author: Effete hairraiser native



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125545)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:29 PM
Author: Greedy theatre milk



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125566)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:43 PM
Author: Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid

!!!!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125657)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:24 PM
Author: Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid

ty friend

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125544)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:28 PM
Author: smoky boyish laser beams selfie

Cliffs like I’m 5 please

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125559)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:45 PM
Author: flatulent gas station multi-billionaire

Voting numbers from early voting that oversample highly enthusiastic support point to massive Trump win bc highly enthusiastic support is a predictor of less enthusiastic support historically, even though this is a weird year that may be introducing weird noise into early voting numbers. And guessing based on registration of voters/assuming away possibility of significant numbers of party switchers.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125670)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 6:43 PM
Author: Flickering Bistre Queen Of The Night Indian Lodge

No, explain like I am a five-year-old little boy who is really into Paw Patrol using the Mayor of Paw Patrol as an example.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127448)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 10:39 PM
Author: underhanded new version

I second that

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41128674)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:34 PM
Author: purple startling newt ticket booth

180 borders ty

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125599)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:35 PM
Author: fragrant mother alpha



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125603)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:35 PM
Author: fragrant mother alpha

poaster of the year

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125602)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:41 PM
Author: passionate kitchen

Dakota County trumpmo checking in here, yny flip this fucking state

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125639)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:43 PM
Author: purple startling newt ticket booth



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125654)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:44 PM
Author: Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid

180 brother

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125664)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:44 PM
Author: supple sable double fault

180 borders tp is our last ray of hope

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125663)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 2:11 PM
Author: Indecent Gay Wizard University

Borders and dat trafalgar

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125837)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:48 PM
Author: orchid insanely creepy yarmulke

Please respond:

http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=4650615&mc=26&forum_id=2

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125676)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 1:58 PM
Author: Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid

Okay I'll respond there

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125728)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 2:26 PM
Author: Histrionic gunner

You said "you fools! you do not realize that people who register to vote have an insanely high likelihood of turning out to vote..."

Do you mean "people who register to vote [pretty close to an election] have an insanely high likelihood of turning out [for that election]"? Obviously tons of people are registered to vote and never fucking vote

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125920)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 2:32 PM
Author: Effete hairraiser native

yes that's what he means

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125952)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 4:24 PM
Author: racy crystalline giraffe stain



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41126737)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 5:11 PM
Author: Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid

Yes sorry - the latter

ie - there's a reason net registration swings have been so predictive / have high correlation with over/under performance relative to last election - b/c when you sign ppl up to vote for the first time or close to election as part of a GOTV effort, they have a very very high likelihood of voting

My sources told me that at the latest Trump rally - as I've mentioned his rallies are also massive sophisticated data collection operations - that HALF of the people at this rally weren't even Republicans....

Separately in FL - look at this

https://twitter.com/CottoGottfried/status/1317010173198729217?s=20

The overall FL registration splits since 2004

Last time Dem ticket one, was with a net registration advantage of D+530k - 630k in the two Obama wins of FL. Bush and Trump won with around D + 330-360k

This year, Trump's ground game has lowered it to the lowest margin ever in the history of Florida - D+130k

FL is a lock

Gonna watch astros games bros i'll poast GA updates tonight after the astros win

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41126966)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 2:31 PM
Author: razzle aquamarine knife dragon

This is retardedly shallow analysis. TL;DR - every losing side has more to gain than the winning side til the game's over.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125949)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 2:32 PM
Author: Mustard Aphrodisiac Volcanic Crater

Nice rebuttal you got there

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41125957)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 6:33 PM
Author: purple startling newt ticket booth



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127400)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 6:33 PM
Author: Greedy theatre milk

wanna bring it to the white house?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127403)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 6:54 PM
Author: racy crystalline giraffe stain

this ignores the ratios he's using the chart to illustrate -- it's not his analysis that's shallow

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127513)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 4:44 PM
Author: racy crystalline giraffe stain

good poast

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41126842)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 4:55 PM
Author: rambunctious odious community account

Why does Biden >100% mean he's running out his pool while Trump >100% doesn't mean he's running out his pool?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41126890)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 16th, 2020 6:06 PM
Author: Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid

It does, but it's relative to how much of the vote is already in

So ie - Biden in CD5 isn't banking the margins he needs considering the relatively higher number of returns already, whereas Trump is already outperforming his 2016 bank in CD2 with much left to go (among an EV group that shouldn't favor him) - watching baseball check back later bros

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127236)



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Date: October 16th, 2020 6:08 PM
Author: Indecent Gay Wizard University

I really don’t get this can u explain like I’m a tard

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127252)



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Date: October 16th, 2020 6:38 PM
Author: racy crystalline giraffe stain

He is saying that Trump's 33% is proportionally higher than Biden's 33% would be because of the disparity in expected and actual vote lead, and therefore Trump has a lot more voters he can expect to come in.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127427)



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Date: October 16th, 2020 10:36 PM
Author: Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41128659)



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Date: October 16th, 2020 5:36 PM
Author: Territorial dun idiot boistinker

Currently duck hunting in CD6; can confirm easy Trump landslide

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127102)



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Date: October 16th, 2020 6:07 PM
Author: Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid

fuck i'm jealous - bird dogs?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127238)



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Date: October 16th, 2020 7:06 PM
Author: Territorial dun idiot boistinker

https://ibb.co/2gxcRhV

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127587)



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Date: October 16th, 2020 7:06 PM
Author: Territorial dun idiot boistinker

https://ibb.co/HHMBpj7

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127593)



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Date: October 16th, 2020 7:18 PM
Author: racy crystalline giraffe stain

180!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127658)



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Date: October 16th, 2020 6:37 PM
Author: Lascivious Offensive State

this all seems kind of meaningless without new registrations / registration changes as an indicator of potential turnout change for each side

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127424)



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Date: October 16th, 2020 6:39 PM
Author: Greedy theatre milk

I think we can make a safe assumption that there is at least a mild correlation.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127433)



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Date: October 16th, 2020 6:43 PM
Author: Lascivious Offensive State

that's my point, whether biden "running hot" with EVs is an indication of him "running out of upside" or generating higher total turnout can be better judged in the context of gross and net voter registration changes since 2016 or 2018

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127452)



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Date: October 16th, 2020 6:46 PM
Author: Greedy theatre milk

he had a poast on voter registration increases historically 100% of the time resulting in higher turnout. I suppose even with a smaller margin vs the gop dems could also get a larger percentage of their otherwise non-voting peeps to vote as well.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127468)



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Date: October 16th, 2020 6:48 PM
Author: Lascivious Offensive State

so where is that data

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127473)



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Date: October 16th, 2020 6:39 PM
Author: racy crystalline giraffe stain

hence why I would like this answered: http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41126872

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127434)



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Date: October 16th, 2020 6:39 PM
Author: Flickering Bistre Queen Of The Night Indian Lodge

Why would exhausting your available pool of votes be a bad thing?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127435)



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Date: October 16th, 2020 6:41 PM
Author: Greedy theatre milk

I think the idea would be that based on projections it wouldn't be enough to outweigh similar projections for in person election day numbers

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127441)



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Date: October 16th, 2020 6:56 PM
Author: racy crystalline giraffe stain

correct

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127528)



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Date: October 16th, 2020 9:14 PM
Author: Flickering Bistre Queen Of The Night Indian Lodge

That sounds like comparing a blur to a shadow.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41128285)



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Date: October 16th, 2020 10:43 PM
Author: Glassy Splenetic Market Hominid

It's useful to think in the extremes here



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41128705)



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Date: October 16th, 2020 6:56 PM
Author: Beady-eyed primrose sanctuary

Bookmarked. Note to future self: OP was Borderstp and this guy called gibberish thought this was a very good analysis.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41127526)



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Date: October 16th, 2020 10:34 PM
Author: Greedy theatre milk

Lol fag

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41128653)



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Date: October 16th, 2020 10:41 PM
Author: glittery home

Lol, you freak

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41128687)



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Date: October 17th, 2020 9:58 AM
Author: Flirting vermilion area black woman

gibberish = animeboi = Drake Mallard = lawman8 = Voodoo Child = Henry Aaron

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41130231)



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Date: October 17th, 2020 1:27 AM
Author: Mint Property



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41129415)



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Date: October 17th, 2020 9:55 AM
Author: passionate kitchen



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41130222)



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Date: October 17th, 2020 10:39 AM
Author: ultramarine pit

Voter fraud potential is a fatal flaw with borders' analysis.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41130428)



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Date: October 17th, 2020 10:44 AM
Author: Flirting vermilion area black woman

(lib trying to cope with Trump landslide)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4652950&forum_id=2#41130451)