alternatively, it's to ensure the US doesn't put nukes in Ukraine right up next to the Russian border. that's not happening either

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5011363&forum_id=2#43811350)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5011363&forum_id=2#43814487)

Russia exerts more influence in kiev now than it would if it annexed the eastern half of the country.

The buildup (as expertly reported to us by iur infallible and totally not state run media) is explainable in ways other than a pending invasion.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5011363&forum_id=2#43811355)

This is about as predictable as when people pondered whether China would send in troops and crackdown on Hong Kong. They were in a similar bind. They could either accept that HK isn't under their control or they would have to exert their control. Since the former wasn't an option, the latter was inevitable.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5011363&forum_id=2#43811421)

"The risks have been present for more than a day, and they haven’t grown,” Mr. Zelensky said. “The hype around them has grown."

And dipshits like u eagerly lap up the yellow journalism from are state media like the good little goy propogandapigs they know u are. Good piggy good. Yep war with russia is looming and biden will protect us!!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5011363&forum_id=2#43814283)

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-wants-to-destabilize-ukraine-not-invade-it-says-kyiv-security-chief-11642680656?mod=mhp

KYIV, Ukraine—Despite U.S. warnings that a Russian invasion appears imminent, senior officials in Ukraine say they believe a large-scale attack isn’t Moscow’s probable course, because of stiff Ukrainian resistance and pressure from the West. Instead, the officials expect the Kremlin to deploy more covert measures to destabilize its neighbor and remove its leadership.

Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said in an interview that a military invasion would be very costly for Russia, given the size of Ukraine’s army, the population’s will to fight and pressure from the West. More likely, he said, Russia would seek, at least in the short term, to intensify a campaign of cyberattacks, provocations, disinformation and economic pressure.

“It will be very difficult for them to achieve their aims by military means. I think, impossible,” said Mr. Danilov. “They have a multifaceted plan to destabilize the domestic situation on the territory of our country. That’s the number one task for them.”

Mr. Danilov’s comments appear part of a concerted effort by Ukraine’s leadership to reassure citizens and stave off panic as the number of Russian troops around the country, already in the tens of thousands, continues to swell.

Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, cast doubt on the likelihood of a large Russian invasion.

PHOTO: ANASTASIA VLASOVA FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

During the interview in his office Tuesday, Mr. Danilov took a brief cellphone call from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom he counseled to maintain “Olympian calm.”

In a televised address Wednesday, Mr. Zelensky noted that the country had lived under the threat of war since 2014, when Russia first invaded.

“The risks have been present for more than a day, and they haven’t grown,” Mr. Zelensky said. “The hype around them has grown.”

Biden Warns Russia of ‘Disaster’ if It Invades Ukraine

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Biden Warns Russia of ‘Disaster’ if It Invades Ukraine

Biden Warns Russia of ‘Disaster’ if It Invades Ukraine

President Biden said on Wednesday that the U.S. is ready to unleash sanctions against Russia if President Vladimir Putin makes a move against Ukraine. Biden also laid out a possible diplomatic resolution. Photo: Susan Walsh/Associated Press

Mr. Danilov’s assessment underscores the difficulty for Ukrainian and Western officials trying to gauge Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plans.

President Biden said Wednesday that he expected Russia to make some kind of move against Ukraine, later adding that he did not think Mr. Putin had made up his mind.

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The Kremlin has denied it is planning an invasion, but Mr. Putin has repeatedly indicated he wants to pull Ukraine, which aims to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union, back under Russia’s control.

In 2014, Russia seized Crimea and tried to foment separatist uprisings across Ukraine’s east and south, according to Western and Ukrainian officials. Those rebellions gained a foothold only in two eastern regions with the help of Russian fighters, equipment and, eventually, a covert military invasion.

Today, Ukraine’s army is considerably stronger and better equipped than in 2014, when it could barely muster the fuel and batteries to get its vehicles moving and volunteers brought food and clothes to the front lines to support soldiers. It now has eight years of experience fighting. It is also equipped with modern weaponry, including Javelin antitank missiles provided by the U.S. and attack drones from Turkey. Still, Russia’s military is significantly more potent, with a powerful air force and missiles that Ukraine would struggle to counter.

A satellite image shows forces gathered this week in Yelnya, western Russia.

PHOTO: MAXAR TECHNOLOGIES HANDOUT/SHUTTERSTOCK

Mr. Putin’s options now could include attempting to invade and occupy parts of Ukraine, using a rapid assault to force Kyiv to negotiate, or seeking to pressure the West into compromises with the threat of action, Ukrainian current and former officials said.

Russia is moving to surround Ukraine with troops from three sides. It has forces in Crimea, to the south, and eastern Ukraine, as well as around 100,000 troops on the Russian side of the border, according to U.S. and European officials. U.S. officials say Russia is moving troops and machinery into Belarus to Ukraine’s north for what Moscow says will be military exercises at the start of next month.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in Kyiv on Wednesday that Russia could quickly double the number of troops on the border.

An assault would likely begin with a flurry of cyberattacks, disinformation and provocations designed to destabilize the country and manufacture a pretext for invasion, Ukrainian current and former officials said. The Kremlin has handed out hundreds of thousands of Russian passports in areas in eastern Ukraine out of Kyiv’s control and repeatedly warned that Kyiv is planning to try to retake such areas by force, something Ukrainian officials deny.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said in December that U.S. mercenaries were stationed in eastern Ukraine and were preparing provocations using storage tanks filled with unidentified chemicals. He didn’t present evidence for his assertion.

Two separatist militiamen approach the People's Council building in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine.

PHOTO: ALEXANDER NEMENOV/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

Ukraine and its Western backers have connected several alleged plots to destabilize the country to Russia in recent weeks.

Mr. Danilov said Russia, along with Belarus, was behind a cyberattack last week. The U.S. said Russia had deployed a group of operatives to launch a false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine. Mr. Zelensky accused Russia late last year of plotting a coup against him. Russia denied everything.

Other current and former Ukrainian officials concurred with Mr. Danilov’s assessment that an attempt to occupy Ukrainian cities would be costly in military and economic terms. Ukraine is the largest country in Europe apart from Russia and currently has 261,000 troops under arms and can call on 130,000 territorial-defense reservists, as well as national guard and police. One-third of respondents in a poll late last year indicated they would take up arms to defend the country if it was attacked.

Ukrainian officials have long warned that Russia could seek to seize the country’s south to secure a link to Crimea and Russian troops stationed in a largely unrecognized separatist territory in Moldova.

But Oleksandr Danylyuk, Mr. Danilov’s predecessor, said that if Russia attacks it would likely pursue a large-scale offensive aimed at bringing Ukraine under Moscow’s control rather than just expanding the territory it already holds.

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“Large aggression will scare the West, and they will be willing to talk,” Mr. Danylyuk said in an interview. “Small aggression will get big sanctions. The negative consequences will outweigh the advantages.”

Mr. Putin has two broad options, Mr. Danylyuk said. The first is a large-scale operation aimed at seizing the eastern half of Ukraine, toppling the government or forcing it to negotiate. The second is an attack using missiles and airstrikes to destroy military and transportation infrastructure. Such an approach would be less costly and strike where Kyiv is weak: its outdated air defense. “It was designed in the 1980s,” said Mr. Danylyuk. “It will not stop Russian aviation, which is state of the art, and missiles and even drones. It’s not designed for it.”

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Still, others agreed with Mr. Danilov’s assessment that Mr. Putin would seek to avoid a costly war, instead aiming to destabilize Ukraine before making a move.

“It’s not about sending his tanks through the whole of Ukraine. It’s simply not possible,” said Pavlo Klimkin, a former Ukrainian foreign minister. “It’s going to get Russia into a corner as a pariah for international relations for everybody.”

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5011363&forum_id=2#43814294)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5011363&forum_id=2#43811411)

Also, Russia is a backwater shithole who can’t say no if NATO puts its foot down. Sorry, not sorry Vlad!!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5011363&forum_id=2#43811417)

Russia sold Alaska to the US, so that was on them. In hindsight, of course Russia regrets it. Maybe France regrets selling the US the Louisiana territory but they can't reverse that now either.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5011363&forum_id=2#43811439)

This is a tantrum from a leader with little capacity to act otherwise. So he moved 50,000 troops to the border, puffed his chest and demanded the West give him something in return. It’s a bluff. He has nothing to offer Ukraine other than alluding to their kinship. The West has guns and butter.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5011363&forum_id=2#43811459)

No, they're not. They don't have woke bullshit or trannies in their military or assorted other nonsense. They don't have a country of people that have little ties to this land other than their estimation of how much money they get here vs. their alternatives. As a result, Russia has overwhelmingly won their recent battles and wars. Every Muslim country America has fought has resulted in a loss. Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria. None of these countries ended up American allies or colonies. Every single one is in another's sphere of influence. Russia reconquered Chechnya and holds it. Every war Russia fights now has Chechens fighting on Russia's side. Russia won in Kazakhstan and Belarus. If you think they're incapable of retaking Ukraine then you're about to be very surprised.

"They couldn’t stop NATO expanding in the 1990s or 2000s either."

Because Yeltsin was a disaster that destroyed the country's ability to anything about anything. Putin has basically been restoring Russia ever since he took over. It would be a mistake to think Russia today is Russia in 1994-1996 (when it lost the first Chechen War due to Yeltsin's incompetence). By the way, Russia would won the first Chechen War if Yeltsin didn't personally interfere and order them to surrender. The demoralization of this can't be overstated. Then he stood by and failed to assist Serbia. Since then Chechnya has been retaken, the relationship with Serbia has been rekindled and there were victories in Syria, Georgia, Belarus and most recently Kazakhstan. And, of course, in Ukraine already with retaking Crimea and Donetsk and Lugansk.

"It’s a bluff. He has nothing to offer Ukraine other than alluding to their kinship. The West has guns and butter."

How delusional are you? Putin already took Crimea and portions of Ukraine. The question isn't if he can retake the rest of Ukraine. It is figuring out exactly what he wants here and if he can avoid the headache of invading the whole country. If he can he will. If he can't then of course he'll invade. Why do you imagine he wouldn't?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5011363&forum_id=2#43811511)

The consequence of this is that Americans expect that Ukrainians will fight to the last man to stop Russia. I think Americans will be surprised at how little resistance there's going to be. The only "resistance" that will be tangible is that Ukrainians will "resist" Russia by trying to avoid taxes (note: they do this now anyway, but then it will be an ACT OF PATRIOTISM). The biggest danger of a Ukraine invasion for Russia is economic, and this adds to that problem.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5011363&forum_id=2#43811475)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5011363&forum_id=2#43812372)

*No tanks were actually needed. They just landed troops and raised Russian flags. Anyone that didn't want to live in Russia then got up and left. Single digits of people actually died in that invasion.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5011363&forum_id=2#43811529)