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If Ukraine falls, which countries will Russia invade next?
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Date: March 20th, 2022 9:42 AM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt Had a debate with a friend about it. I said Ukraine -> Moldova -> Armenia, Georgia -> Baltics. He said Ukraine -> Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan -> Baltics. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44183282) |
Date: March 20th, 2022 9:43 AM Author: Titillating orchestra pit brethren Baltic’s and Poland (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44183288) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 9:45 AM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt With what army? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44183302) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 9:54 AM Author: Titillating orchestra pit brethren 🤷🏿♂️ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44183345) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 9:56 AM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt they will try to recreate USSR with a massive conscript army before going West. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44183355) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 9:56 AM Author: Titillating orchestra pit brethren would love to see them try (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44183358) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 9:46 AM Author: dashing filthy indian lodge pervert None they just want kiev back and to start Eurasia integration (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44183309) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 9:48 AM Author: dull philosopher-king They won't have a military left (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44183315) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 3:34 PM Author: wine cumskin codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44184961) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 9:48 AM Author: multi-colored internal respiration hospital They did a poll in Russia last week, and Poland was the most popular option among the general Russian public. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44183316) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 9:53 AM Author: lime indirect expression black woman this is retarded and just about as useful as opinion polling in the us, where a majority of people supported a no-fly zone over ukraine.
there is no fucking way russia attacks a nato country after this. it's unlikely they will be able to take and hold ukraine, let alone have the military might to go against the entire west. the best case scenario is that they take and hold ukraine and lick their wounds. MAYBE they're thinking about moldova or belarus in 2030. ljl at russia proceeding beyond ukraine within the next decade. |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 9:55 AM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt Belarus is already occupied. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44183352) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 9:59 AM Author: lime indirect expression black woman there's a lot of unrest in belarus over support of russia. seems possible that belarus distances itself from russia and russia invades to keep them within their sphere of influence. that's pretty much what happened with ukraine. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44183366) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 2:48 PM Author: amethyst vivacious school cafeteria cuckoldry Euromaidan was a CIA coup. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44184584) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 3:31 PM Author: frisky ivory forum 😂 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44184937) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:00 PM Author: Honey-headed trip dingle berry athletic conference To be fair,
Where are your kids right now, Karen? |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 9:57 PM Author: Rose institution gaping What (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44187196) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:03 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185150) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:29 PM Author: Honey-headed trip dingle berry athletic conference (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185330) |
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Date: March 21st, 2022 12:23 PM Author: Razzmatazz Dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44189893) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 3:57 PM Author: Honey-headed trip dingle berry athletic conference To be fair,
Wow "a lot of unrest", that sounds like it could get ugly and dangerous and spiral out of control pretty quickly for the Belarusian government! So when will Lukashenko be deposed? |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 9:58 AM Author: frisky ivory forum Suggesting that Russia would invade Belarus shows you have no idea what you're talking about and should probably stfu. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44183364) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 9:59 AM Author: lime indirect expression black woman see my comment above. ljl at faggot quotemos who are overly aggressive yet contribute nothing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44183369) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 2:47 PM Author: Rose institution gaping I know it's a pain to track but I've been talking about this shit non stop for a month.
You've been injecting yourself into box drama. Lol @ u. |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 8:21 PM Author: soul-stirring sienna pit keepsake machete Putin and Lukashenko went out to dinner at a Moscow restaurant. The server asked them for their order. Putin said, "I'll have steak." The server said, "What about the vegetable?" Putin replied, "He'll have steak, too."
(I have a friend from Belarus. She said that this is a popular joke there.)
You're a great poaster, but yeah, the idea that Russia will ever invade Belarus is laughable. Lukashenko/Belarus have been Russia's bitch ever since the USSR collapsed, and everyone knows that. Basically the entire Belarusian economy is based on buying Russian oil at below-market rates and then refining it. Russia is willing to subsidize the Belarusian economy as long as they remain a loyal client state. If Russia stops giving them cheap oil, their entire economy will collapse, and everyone knows that. There is no need to launch a military invasion when you already hold a country by their economic balls.
The only possible way that Russia invades Belarus is if Lukashenko is overthrown and replaced by a pro-Western leader. That seems extremely unlikely. Lukashenko has generally been an effective dictator. Even though he isn't well-liked by the populace, there isn't much enthusiasm to overthrow him because everyone knows that any leader who isn't a Russian puppet will cause the oil spigots to be turned off, which will result in an economic collapse. Plus people see what happened to Ukraine when they stood up to Russia. So most likely Lukashenko stays in power. And there is no reason to invade Belarus as long as Lukashenko's mouth is attached to Putin's dick. |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 10:00 AM Author: laughsome jet boiling water they are already going against the entire west. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44183377) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 10:01 AM Author: lime indirect expression black woman world of difference between getting kicked off swift and moscow being nuked (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44183380) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 10:04 AM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt Yeah, Russians are now all like, oh noes, IKEA left, what will we do now? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44183392) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 10:07 AM Author: Soggy translucent lay Moldova. Easy war. Then Poland and the Balts. Ultimately East Germany. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44183400) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 10:09 AM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt Maybe they should try Finland again next winter. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44183408) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 10:12 AM Author: multi-colored internal respiration hospital How's the Admiral Kuznetsov doing these days? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44183419) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 10:50 PM Author: cerebral trailer park sound barrier Lmao the drydock it was in sank. What a shithole! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44187535) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 10:15 AM Author: Brilliant Boyish Liquid Oxygen Even if Russia's little holiday in UKR is "successful" their military has been seriously depleted. Also the Russian military has been shown to be poorly trained and resourced. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44183441) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 1:36 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit none lmfao (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44184255) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 2:26 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt The whole invasion idea was retarded and then executed retardedly. No reason to suspect this is going to stop. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44184484) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 2:39 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit lol
you need to stop uncritically consuming media |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 2:42 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt Everyone should, and limit the calories too. Would you like to make a coherent and specific rebuttal? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44184545) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 3:40 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit Sure.
Putin has little interest in expansion beyond Ukraine. Ukraine is a unique case. Ukraine is substantially greater than all of the other countries in question, both in size and economy. Poland, a significant NATO member which routinely hosts US troops, is on the other side of Ukraine. Putin considers a geographical buffer between NATO and Russia to be critical, particularly given that Latvia and Estonia are already members (and Russia wasn't able to challenge that effectively at the time). Ukrainian ascension would be a significant step to encirclement, something that Russia has been wary of since WW1.
A 1994 agreement between Russia, Great Britain, and the US assured Ukrainian political and military independence. Ukraine nonetheless wanted membership, to the point of applying for a membership plan in 2008. Russia tried to torpedo this by emplacing Yanukovych (who was uninterested in NATO); the US responded by instigating the Euromaidan unrest which resulted in the installation of Poroshenko and then Zelensky, a puppet. Promptly thereafter, Russia annexed Crimea in an effort to both retain control of an important port, and solidify their buffer -- view this as an insurance measure in response to Western intervention in Ukraine. This didn't have the effect Putin was hoping for; instead of the West backing off and Ukraine realizing it was caught between two great powers and trying to remain neutral, things escalated. The Ukrainian government began aggressively pursuing NATO membership, and NATO increased exercises in Ukraine, set up funds for the Ukrainian military, and put them on aspirant status. This all culminated in the Ukrainian government amending their constitution in 2019 to enshrine progression towards NATO and EU membership as central objectives. That's when tensions began to really escalate, and when Russia likely began planning the invasion.
The development and ramifications of this situation haven't been obscured; Mearsheimer has been saying for years (in a now-very-popular video clip from 2015) that precisely this would happen, because the situation in Ukraine is unique.*
Those factors are all largely unique to Ukraine. Russia lacks these same motivations to just roll through the Baltics -- what's there for them? They're further unable to occupy and pacify these other countries simultaneously. Ukraine, by itself, is a very large country to subdue (even with a horrific "military"). Furthermore, continued aggression would be more than enough to bring the rest of the world into the fight; the only thing restraining NATO right now is the consideration that Russia is not going on an irrational rampage, but is doing this for very precise reasons that are limited in scope. Putin is well aware of these limitations.
Incidentally, this same behavior is why Putin curbstomped Georgia in 2008 -- Russia wants its buffer, and Georgia was asking for NATO membership.
You need to stop uncritically consuming the hysteria and theater** from the globohomo propaganda machine, and read more about neorealism.
As an aside, Russia is winning quite badly; most Ukrainian forces are or will soon be encircled, Russia has taken Kherson and will soon take Kharkiv, and once they do, Kiev is dun here.
* https://twitter.com/wimgrommen/status/1505575314323353605 is the clip that went viral, but you should view his entire lecture to understand this situation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
** https://twitter.com/LezLuthor/status/1500175827161554946 |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 3:47 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt "Ukraine nonetheless wanted membership, to the point of applying for a membership plan in 2008."
That's incorrect, Ukraine never talked about NATO membership before 2014, the Crimean annexation. The talk was about EU, and the whole NATO line is a sham alongside denazification.
They had the right to do whatever they wanted with their economy.
The idiocy of "encirclement" of Russia becomes obvious as soon as you look at the map.
You just picked an alternative propaganda line in leu of looking critically at the media. |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 3:49 PM Author: Honey-headed trip dingle berry athletic conference To be fair,
Lmao you're wrong about NATO but let's put that to the side for the second -- oh so Ukraine *only* wanted EU membership (again this is wrong but ignoring that) which is of course totally not a form of encroachment on Russia by the West and therefore Russia has absolutely no right to be alarmed by that also the world is just filled to the brim with shades of grey where do we draaaaaw the liiiiiiine *pushes up glasses and wheezes excitedly* it's all just soooooo complicated and highly nuanced and why would you even SUGGEST that I am Jewish you filthy fucking antisemitic piece of shit?!?! |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 3:57 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt What encroachment on Russia? Did Russian "elites" also "encroach" on London by buying half of it?
You are living in an imaginary caricature world of some sorts. |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 3:58 PM Author: Honey-headed trip dingle berry athletic conference To be fair,
(Guy wondering if Russia will invade Germany or Austria next) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 3:58 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185116) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 3:59 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt link? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185126) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:00 PM Author: Honey-headed trip dingle berry athletic conference To be fair,
http://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&mc=49&forum_id=2#44183282 |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:06 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt That's Moldova (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185175) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:08 PM Author: Honey-headed trip dingle berry athletic conference To be fair,
"That's, like TOTALLY different, maaaaan! One is retarded, the other is really smart! Do you even, like, law?" |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:25 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt Yes, Moldova is totally different from Germany. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185297) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:26 PM Author: Honey-headed trip dingle berry athletic conference To be fair,
"Jupiter is a totally different plant from Uranus! I wasn't retarded when I said we might go to *Jupiter* soon, it's not the same thing as Uranus you retard!" |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:28 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt Link? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185319) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:28 PM Author: Honey-headed trip dingle berry athletic conference To be fair,
"Why do people keep accusing me of being Jewish?!" |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:33 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt That's a lot of hysterics on account of understanding the difference between Moldova and Germany. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185355) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 3:58 PM Author: frisky ivory forum You had no position on any of this u t a day or so ago. You have no clue what you're talking about and it shows. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185120) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:02 PM Author: Honey-headed trip dingle berry athletic conference To be fair,
Yeah I haven't "had any position" on this whole Russia invading Ukraine thing up until the last few hours, you got me pumo goddamn why am I so gay and retarded haha yeah? |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:19 PM Author: frisky ivory forum You didn't. Your entire position was "well the jews like the Ukrainians so they are prob wrong"
You've had some time to figure out what the alt right position is, so now you can parrot it in your formulaic style. |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:27 PM Author: Honey-headed trip dingle berry athletic conference To be fair,
There's no hedging "prob" included in an accurate statement of my position, and also that's literally still my position nothing has changed and that's the point you fucking faggot quotemo. |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:38 PM Author: frisky ivory forum No amount of aggression inserted into your posts can mask that they lack substance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185396) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:46 PM Author: Honey-headed trip dingle berry athletic conference (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185458) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 3:50 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_8443.htm
you have no fucking idea what you're talking about
https://letmegooglethat.com/?q=bucharest+summit+2008+ukraine |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:05 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185167) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:07 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit if only you'd read the page yourself: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War#Relations_between_Georgia_and_the_West
I reiterate: you have no fucking idea what you're talking about, your knowledge gaps of both history and IR are glaring, and you possess a 15 year old's understanding of geopolitics: "He's just gonna take it all over cause he wants to! We've gotta stop him!"
You should shut the fuck up, take your gaping, and read more. |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:21 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt Russia started the war in Georgia, so Georgia can not try to get into NATO to protect itself because why? Because it owes something to Russia?
The bottom line here is that pro-Russia arguments boil down to Russians thinking that these lands belong to them, and my argument is that they can decide for themselves, as with the individual rights, "conservatives and true liberals (not to be confused with libs)" who scream "Go Russia!" here are supposed to support.
One look at the "liberators" vs civilians in Ukraine tells you all you need to know here. |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:28 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit You fucking idiot, Georgia trying to join NATO predates the war. The war was in response to alignment with the West.
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:28 PM Author: Honey-headed trip dingle berry athletic conference (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185327) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:37 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt No, you. When tensions grew, Georgia wanted to protect itself. And it has every right to do so.
Bottom line is that Russia is a grim nightmarish shithole, and no one wants to have anything to do with it. |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:46 PM Author: Honey-headed trip dingle berry athletic conference To be fair,
Wow this really *does* sound fair and balanced, hard to argue with any of this analysis I think this covers it all you're probably 100% right PS fuck Russia forever just bomb it into dust they're totally in the wrong I guess they're just stupid and evil or something haha yeah |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:58 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit Those tensions date back to the South Ossetia conflict -- trying to join NATO to get backing in their conflict with their breakaway republics (backed by Russia) was never going to get Russia to deescalate, and that should have been clear. But Russia literally warned them not to try to join, they did, and then Russia thrashed them (Georgia is still not fully recovered).
You continue to demonstrate that you have no fucking clue about any of this. Read more, poast less. |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 5:05 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt Again, you baseline position is that Russia has some sort of right to the neighboring states, mine that it does not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185562) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 5:13 PM Author: Honey-headed trip dingle berry athletic conference To be fair,
It's amazing how fiercely people like you will defend the Ukrainian "right" to "self-determination" in a post-Soviet world order, but will SCREAM about TREASON if anyone starts suggesting that oh I don't know maybe Idaho should have a right to secede from the United States of America if they decide they want to do that and it would be wrong for the American federal government to use military power to attempt to stop that secession.
I don't know your personal position on that, but I guarantee that 90% of the people on "your" side of this debate would immediately respond with "THAT'S TOTALLY DIFFERENT!" I guess it's sort of like how preserving national sovereignty and securing its borders is critically important for Ukraine, but doesn't really matter when it comes to America for uh reasons. |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 5:16 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit My baseline position is as follows: - great powers have interests in countries other than their own - only fucking children think that those powers are bound by some sort of emotionally generated "moral norm" about "self-determination" -- it's normal and rational for them to be concerned about goings on that affect them, and it's reasonable for them to act to influence those outcomes - you need to read this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offensive_realism |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 5:18 PM Author: Honey-headed trip dingle berry athletic conference To be fair,
CR
"But muh words on muh paper! If you simply read the AGREEMENTS WE HAVE ALL AGREED TO LIVE BY, you'll see that..."
Lmao might makes right. That's the whole analysis. Always has been, always will be. And the moment that those who hold powerful today reveal themselves to be too morally weak or lazy or degenerate or stupid or foolish or arrogant etc. to actually exercise it in a sufficiently ruthless manner against those who would challenge them, they have doomed themselves to a future position of weakness tomorrow.
"America" is now gay, which means that it's already over. The only question is when and how the fall happens, and how rough the crash landing becomes. |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 5:21 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit and what's more, retardmo's evolved position seems to be about what should be, not what will be -- but his argument initially is about what Russia WILL do, and they sure as fuck will NOT invade a bunch of other European states after this like this dumbfuck thinks. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185645) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 5:23 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt bookmarked to shove in your idiot face later (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185653) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 5:25 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit more than fair because when I'm right, I'm going to reply to every poast of yours I see with this thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185668) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 5:55 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit archived, blanking won't save you now (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185860) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 5:21 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt I did not say they act as they are bound, I said the right objectively exists.
Does it or does it not? |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 5:23 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit no it fucking doesn't, you dumbshit.
But your original fucking argument wasn't a normative argument, it was a predictive one. I blew that the fuck out and now you're trying to pivot. You're fucking wrong there too though. |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 5:29 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt I very glad you are not a quadruple amputee Afghanistan war veteran, were the Great Power correctly made it's rightful point, so that you can poast your retarded garbage here, now that we all enjoy the consequences of ignoring that "imaginary right" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185690) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 5:30 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit What?
this is literally incoherent, you seem like a rage addled boomer |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 5:34 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt US is ruined because of Iraq and Afghanistan wars. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185735) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 5:36 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit where we ofc should not have gone, but that has nothing to do with "right to self determination" and EVERYTHING to do with why Russia won't go through the rest of Europe -- lack of strategic interests. They have a very real one in Ukraine, as I've really tried to help you understand itt. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185749) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 5:55 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt Fist, I did not say rest of Europe, I said Moldova+
Second, it has everything to do with self-determination, as long as you realize that the rights are God-given.
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Date: March 20th, 2022 5:56 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit "Right" to determine your own government is NOT God-given, but one that must be taken by force.
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Date: March 20th, 2022 6:00 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt I don't think you understand abstract concepts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185886) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 6:01 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit (guy extremely familiar with my teleology poasting in 2018)
claiming that something isn't a real right is making a distinction between abstracts
you can go further and divide rights into legal and natural ones; self-determination isn't a natural one, which are the only ones I consider meaningful. |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 6:04 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt Thanks, but MIG the Theologist is enough for now (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185919) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 9:30 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit too many abstract concepts? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44187069) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 9:55 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt Are you about 65-70% African-American? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44187181) |
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Date: March 21st, 2022 10:20 AM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit 99.9% Anglo, .1% North Germanic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44189199) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 5:23 PM Author: Honey-headed trip dingle berry athletic conference To be fair,
If you're talking about "rights" with a straight face in 2022, you've already proven that you're on the wrong side of the only debate that actually matters at the end of the day (reality vs. delusion).
Here's the only "right" that exists in this world: Might makes right. That's it. That's the end, that's literally the full analysis. Everything else is gloss and make believe. |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 5:30 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185690 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185697) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 3:47 PM Author: Honey-headed trip dingle berry athletic conference To be fair,
Jesus Christ just close this fucking thread.
/end |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:10 PM Author: Ruddy piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185210) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:21 PM Author: slate balding address mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185274) |
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Date: March 29th, 2022 1:31 PM Author: multi-colored internal respiration hospital Date: March 20th, 2022 3:47 PM Author: To be fair
To be fair, Jesus Christ just close this fucking thread.
/end
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185039) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:36 PM Author: multi-colored internal respiration hospital Date: March 20th, 2022 3:40 PM Author: HEGEMON(Hegemon) As an aside, Russia is winning quite badly; most Ukrainian forces are or will soon be encircled, Russia has taken Kherson and will soon take Kharkiv, and once they do, Kiev is dun here. |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:37 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185388) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:43 PM Author: multi-colored internal respiration hospital how long until this comes true? Willing to take separate predictions for Kharkiv, and for the fall of Kiev after Kharkiv falls. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185430) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 5:01 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit 1) this assumes that the war isn't ended before then. If Kiev cedes to Russia's terms before then, no bet.
2) I'm gonna guess within four months for it all to be wrapped up. |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 5:04 PM Author: multi-colored internal respiration hospital four months for Kiev to fall? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185559) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 5:17 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit or the war to be concluded on terms favorable to Russia, yeah, I think so. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185627) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2022 10:02 PM Author: Histrionic business firm Any updates? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44902779) |
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Date: June 19th, 2022 12:46 PM Author: Titillating orchestra pit brethren Lmao (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44707747) |
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Date: March 29th, 2022 1:29 PM Author: multi-colored internal respiration hospital "As an aside, Russia is winning quite badly; most Ukrainian forces are or will soon be encircled, Russia has taken Kherson and will soon take Kharkiv, and once they do, Kiev is dun here."
lmmaooo |
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Date: April 12th, 2022 8:10 PM Author: multi-colored internal respiration hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44327343) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 2:40 PM Author: thriller love of her life Estonia - 1 million people, 35% Russia. Easy win. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44184542) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 8:31 PM Author: soul-stirring sienna pit keepsake machete Honestly this is the scenario that scares me. Assuming that Putin succeeds in Ukraine, he goes for Latvia or Estonia next. And he tells NATO that if they get involved, he will drop the bomb.
There is absolutely zero enthusiasm in the West for risking nuclear war to defend Latvia or Estonia. There is a good chance that NATO simply stands down. If that happens, NATO collapses, for starters. There is a good chance that Eastern Europe decides that the West is not going to protect them, so they realign with Russia. With the collapse of NATO and the realignment of Eastern Europe, the U.S. loses more international credibility/soft power than at any other point in its history.
The only other option is to fight Russia to defend Latvia and Estonia and hope that Putin was bluffing when he threatened to drop the bomb. Neither option is very appealing to me. |
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Date: March 21st, 2022 12:38 PM Author: thriller love of her life Putin would only try to take Narva and Latgale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44189957) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 2:43 PM Author: pink kitchen stock car Israel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44184552) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 2:45 PM Author: scarlet ticket booth azn “Half-measures” are fucking stupid in war. They’re losing Russian men and materiel to save Ukrainian civilians.
WW2 was convenient for them in retrospect, just bait the other side into attacking and then take over for 50 years “while you figure out what’s going on.”
If they weren’t poor they could control Ukrainian politics/economy from behind the scenes and just annex at some point. |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 2:48 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt They tried the latter part too, especially with the SBU (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44184588) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 3:41 PM Author: flirting wild rehab I don't think they're invading anything after Ukraine, maybe they'll go for Moldova (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185008) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 3:51 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt This thing is pointless from any point of view other than some NWO Big Play with Putin as a puppet. Not sure to what extent he is in on it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185075) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 3:53 PM Author: flirting wild rehab It makes sense for Russia to stop a NATO base on their borders. It also makes sense as a blow to globohomo's favorite new lair, though I don't think that's why Putin actually did it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185088) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 3:59 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt What NATO base? NATO was reputedly rejecting all Ukrainian requests for membership since 2014. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185122) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:14 PM Author: dull philosopher-king If they take ukraine they will have a NATO base on their border. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185228) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:01 PM Author: razzle tank locus Why do you think Armenia and Georgia are the same? Russia has two "claims" to Georgia territory. It doesn't even border Armenia. The only other one is moldova which is worthless except as a buffer against Europe |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:03 PM Author: Honey-headed trip dingle berry athletic conference To be fair,
Because OP is a fucking unironic retard. |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:17 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185255) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:17 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit because he's really fucking stupid and needs to read a lot more (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185252) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 9:18 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt Why do you think that I think Armenia and Georgia are the same? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44187008) |
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Date: March 21st, 2022 12:20 PM Author: razzle tank locus you have them separated by a comma instead of an arrow. still dont see how anyone with any take on this other than a HOT TAKE thinks Russia is invading Armenia let alone doing it before the others |
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Date: March 21st, 2022 12:33 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44189930) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:21 PM Author: Violent disrespectful travel guidebook Peter Zeihan, a geopolitical strategist who called the Russian invasion, thinks russia will go for Moldova and the Baltic states. He thinks Russia will use its influence over germany to drive a wedge in NATO so they won't mobilize. Baltic states are only a few million people so should fall qiuckly (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185277) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 4:30 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt Moldova is small and weak, and not in NATO, so definitely that.
They can try to split NATO but they will fail, if Russians will go for Baltics. WWIII I guess. |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 5:27 PM Author: Chartreuse hissy fit If anyone in this thread would like to avoid being as stupid about IR as OP, watch the greatest IR scholar alive discussing literally this question in 2015 and predicting all of this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44185678) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 9:21 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt lol, an "IR scholar" "predicting" war with Russia a year after war with Russia starts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44187028) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 7:47 PM Author: arousing mewling cruise ship If Russia takes or controls all of Ukraine (big “if”), they will 100% “recognize” Transnistria in Moldova as an “independent” country and then a week later agree to Transnistria’s “request” to become part of Russia. They also clearly dream about taking the Baltics after that, and would if they could, but I doubt they will now. I don’t see them going further than now in the Caucuses. |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 9:24 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt My rationale for saying Moldova was that if the West allows Ukraine to be taken over, Putin will expand one more to see the West's reaction so that they could "get used to it" and probe their position on Baltics. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44187048) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 9:26 PM Author: well-lubricated state America, I’m led to believe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44187053) |
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Date: March 20th, 2022 9:26 PM Author: Magenta supple old irish cottage really tough guy The Falkland Islands (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44187055) |
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Date: March 21st, 2022 10:22 AM Author: Navy temple toaster In all seriousness leading candidate looks like moldova with estonia and georgia running close behind. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44189207) |
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Date: March 21st, 2022 10:35 AM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt Big difference here is that Estonia is in NATO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44189266) |
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Date: March 21st, 2022 4:21 PM Author: Navy temple toaster Ya its so tiny tho. Amd like 1/3 russian. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44191674) |
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Date: March 21st, 2022 4:38 PM Author: erotic at-the-ready stage people who are hurt That would be a real test of NATO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44191801) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2022 10:06 PM Author: Magenta supple old irish cottage really tough guy Hokkaido (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5063383&forum_id=2#44902803) |