The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
Who's defending Kiev?
Poast new message in this thread
Date: July 16th, 2022 1:56 AM Author: maroon cracking field nowag What's the situation like there? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44859850) |
Date: July 16th, 2022 2:04 AM Author: maroon cracking field nowag https://twitter.com/Mok1967SG/status/1548155493104816128 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44859872) |
|
Date: July 16th, 2022 2:06 AM Author: Saffron stage turdskin James Vasquanch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44859878) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 11:47 AM Author: maroon cracking field nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882057) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 11:54 AM Author: sienna plaza pisswyrm Kiev isn't seriously threatened because 1) Russia would have much longer supply lines there on a much more narrow front less protected by SAMs and thus more vulnerable to attack by drones, etc 2) Ukraine would fight much harder for Kiev than for the Donbas 3) Western nations would greatly increase their military aid if Kiev were threatened.
Even shelling Kiev with artillery wouldn't work considering all the HIMARS and M777s the US would send to break the siege. |
 |
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:06 PM Author: pale vivacious new version space this is conventional thinking, but Kyiv is extremely vulnerable to attack and its capture would break the will of Ukraine and throw Europe into a state of panic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882162) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:08 PM Author: sienna plaza pisswyrm And who exactly is going to capture it? The crappy conscripts Russia is using in the Donbas who are only advancing sloooowly because they are following a hail of artillery that won't exist on the approaches to Kiev? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882172) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:11 PM Author: pale vivacious new version space u seem dumb or a Russian troll
like Wellington relying on the Prussians to outflank Napoleon at Waterloo, Putin will rely on Belarus to come crashing down on Kyiv, which is the crown jewel for all Slavs and Greater Russia nationalists |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:14 PM Author: sienna plaza pisswyrm Ah, Belarus' 40k man army whose officers have publicly signed declarations asking Lukaschenko not to get involved in the war. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882205) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:16 PM Author: pale vivacious new version space Russian troops crossing the border from the Northeast and Belarus from the Northwest will have Kyiv surrounded and cut off from help (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882222) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:14 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks Belarus won't supply enough troops to maintain an encirclement around Kiev. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882209) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:17 PM Author: indigo toaster friendly grandma it'll be a hybrid army under Belarusian banner but lead by Russians. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882227) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:23 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks But the sheer numbers on the Belarusian side are simply too small to make a huge impact. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882260) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:34 PM Author: indigo toaster friendly grandma right, i think it would be mostly russian weaponry and forces coming through belarus. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882310) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:35 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks But that doesn't fundamentally change the equation then. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882315) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:45 PM Author: indigo toaster friendly grandma doesn't it? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882397) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:48 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks No. For one, they've had that access during the entire war. So the only net change is up to 40k troops from Belarus? To encircle a heavily fortified city of 4 million? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882414) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:53 PM Author: pale vivacious new version space Kyiv has a bare minimum of fortifications and lacks any real fighting power- it's there for the taking (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882448) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:56 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks I have to disagree with this. They have several lines of fortifications that Stalin ordered built after WW2. These have been reinforced by the current regime. Also, you're kidding yourself if you don't see that Zelinsky is guarded by Western special forces and that's probably the only reason he's still alive. It will be a very tough nut to crack and it is fundamentally not time yet. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882471) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:59 PM Author: pale vivacious new version space speaking of Stalin, Stalingrad during the Nazi invasion was fortified, Kyiv today: not so much (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882491) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:01 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks Not even the Russian stavka believes this. If they did then their strategy might be very different than what it is now or has been since the start of the war. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882497) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:01 PM Author: pale vivacious new version space their delay is from political considerations, not military (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882507) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:03 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks Only in the broad sense that politically, they don't want to call full mobilization and declare war. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882518) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:05 PM Author: pale vivacious new version space the day of the Russian TET Offensive draws nearer, which could turn the tide of the war (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882525) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:07 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks I kind of hope that's not the right analogy since in many ways the Tet offensive was a disaster for North Vietnam. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882535) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:08 PM Author: pale vivacious new version space tell that to the South Vietnamese and Gen Westmoreland (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882543) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:11 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks Yeah, but look at the casualties on the Commie side. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882559) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:13 PM Author: pale vivacious new version space tell that to Stalin who lost 20+ million Russians in WWII (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882577) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:15 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks Putin isn't Stalin though. He sort of LARPs Stalin's image but that's about it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882597) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:17 PM Author: pale vivacious new version space the cost to Russian lives will be the same (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882604) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:18 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks 20+ million? No way. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882615) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:16 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag They shouldn't need to. Just because it's the capital city doesn't mean people won't immediately defect. If Ukrainian authorities look weak and incompetent, it would be suicidal for any right thing Ukrainian to risk their lives defending them. Imagine saying "my life for Zelensky!" a month from now, or even today. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882599) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:01 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag What "western government" will risk one KIA defending Kiev? Name one. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882499) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:04 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks You think we don't have special forces already on the ground there? I've got some prime Florida swampland for sale! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882520) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:05 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag I'm quite sure none of them are doing any actual fighting. Ukraine is supposed to have 100k volunteers for that, not to mention Biden's lawyers already said no. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882523) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:06 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks We also have military trainers on the ground there. There have been videos of them. There are also PMCs from NATO countries on the ground. That's what proxy wars look like. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882531) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:10 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag This implies that Ukrainians are expected to operate these weapons systems, not the Americans who are simply training them (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882554) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:12 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks I would never make that assumption. Also, realize that the American trainer can do everything except hit the "FIRE" button and state that the Ukrainians were the ones operating the system. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882570) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:19 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag You are correct, except that the US military gets really fucking upset now if even one of its doods gets killed in action, especially a "trainer" who has no legal authority to shoot at the enemy. What message would that send to every other trainer? "You're expected to do your training during a live fire fight? Just start doing the trainee's job?" I'm sorry if your think our military is that careless or dishonest with the people it sends to these places to do this kind of work. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882619) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:20 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks "I'm sorry if your think our military is that careless or dishonest with the people it sends to these places to do this kind of work"
I just loled. |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:23 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag We pulled out of Afghanistan over 1 KIA/mo. KIAs are tragic as fuck. You don't know how things work these days. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882647) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:04 PM Author: Snowy Boistinker Locale Lukashenko famously hates Putin. He probably hopes Russia falls more than anyone. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882522) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:07 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks If Russia fell Lukashenko would be executed the next day. He would have been removed already if Putin didn't save his ass about a year ago. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882539) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2022 10:55 AM Author: Sinister Glittery Trailer Park Striped Hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44894176) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:20 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag Who is actually defending it? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882244) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:13 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks How is it extremely vulnerable to attack? I would say exactly the opposite.
The reality is that Russia has to 1. finish in Donbass, 2. take Kharkov, 3. take Nikolaev and then Odessa, and finally, 4. push up to the Dnepr elsewhere. Only after all of that would they even have a shot. In reality, they would be better off after that moving west to cut off weapons shipments. |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:15 PM Author: sienna plaza pisswyrm Odessa is an extremely hard nut to crack, especially since Harpoon and Brimstone missiles take away the amphibious option. Plus, Ukraine and the West will know that its loss will mean Ukraine and its raw materials are landlocked. Military aid will be sent accordingly. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882214) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:18 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks The amphibious option was always an awful idea and I don't think it was ever plausible. Amphibious landings in the absolute best of circumstances are extremely bloody. An amphibious landing into an urban center is pretty much impossible except as a supporting move.
Once Nikolaev is taken the Russians can begin cutting Odessa off. |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:23 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag Who would risk their lives to defend it? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882261) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:29 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks Conscripts who are told they and their families will be shot if they don't? Same people fighting for Ukraine now. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882290) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:32 PM Author: aquamarine school cafeteria goal in life To be fair,
Wow sounds like exactly the sort of people who will gladly fight to the last man to die for this noble cause that they believe in with all of their healol |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:39 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks Of course not, but those in charge on the Ukrainian/Western side are perfectly happy if Ukraine suffers enormous casualties as long as Russia loses people/weapons too. That's what this is really about.
If Ukraine was forced to stop conscription and allow people that wanted to leave to leave their military would collapse within a week. |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:01 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag In order for that to work the threat has to be credible. There have to be people willing to go out and kill families of the people. There will have to be exemplars the state can point to.
And right now Ukraine isn't even forcing conscripts to actually show up and enlist. People get draft notices but ignore them. You're telling me their families' throats will be slit at some point? |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:05 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks Never underestimate the willingness of Ukrainians to be brutal and terrorize their own people. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882524) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:08 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag I'm not estimating anything. I'm looking at actual reporting on how the Ukrainian government is actually [not] enforcing the draft. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882542) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:10 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks There are also vids of them grabbing people and throwing them into military trucks.
Also some funny pics/vids of men walking around in dresses and wigs. |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:25 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag Oh, videos. That settles it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882663) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:29 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks How do you imagine the Ukrainians are holding on without meat to throw in the grinder? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882679) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:33 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag I don't know that they are. They seem to be in retreat and every counteroffensive seems to be failing. I think Russia will take Kiev politically before it takes it militarily. Zelensky is firing his top intelligence officials now including an old childhood friend. He's replacing them with people who previously oversaw corruption and organized crime. So it looks like he's already arranging his exit. Whoever occupies that office needs Ukrainians to wake up every day and think "he's my president" or else no one will fight for him. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882705) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:35 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks The advance is very slow. At this rate it will take months just to take Donbass. If they take Donbass + Kharkov by EOY it will be a very good year. Donbass + Kharkov + Nikolaev or even Odessa is basically unrealistic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882714) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:38 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag The sounds and images of war travel fast. People in Kiev don't need Russian soldiers to be right at their door to say "fuck this." (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882741) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:39 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks Listen, I hope you're 100% right. I just don't buy it. I've been hearing this shit from day 1 of this "special operation" but it has never turned out that way. I never understood why anyone would fight for Ukrainian nationalism or the Zelinsky regime, yet they do.
Also, there's a HUGE censorship regime in Ukraine right now. They beat people they find subscribed to pro-Russian telegram channels. |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:51 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag I'm being pushy here. I don't know whether I'm right. But here is what I'm reading:
1. Russia is offering passports/citizenship to every Ukrainian. And it now looks like Ukrainians who want their property rights recognized by the Russian administrators have to show proof of Russian citizenship. "Ukrainian" property is being siezed for public use.
So if you're in Kiev right now and you have a nice house, surely you at least have your passport application ready to go, and you're probably thinking "how doI get this to the Russian govt without getting caught?" Even just as an insurance policy, people have an incentive to do that
2. The Ukrainian "government" is treating anyone who does as a traitor, but they don't seem to be good at catching them or even discouraging anyone from doing it. Their security services are flipping to Russia - all 60 of them in the one eastern city I read. If your security services feel safe declaring their loyalty to Russia, why wouldn't ordinary citizens? Are they supposed to worry that Ukrainian security will round them up? I think if I were in that position I'd see Russian citizenship as the safest bet.
3. You have to wonder what retaliation will look like against Zelensky loyalists if/when Russia wins. |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:53 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks I don't disagree with any of that. I'm just noting that they're nevertheless fighting on. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882848) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:59 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag True but it's sick to watch. 100-200 KIA/day is a fuckload. You have to notify all these families and have a story to tell the other troops. Then it happens the next day. And the next.
Then one day you tell everyone "game changer! We blew up their ammo, their army will wither and die." But the next day you lose another 100-200 troops. And the day after that. |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 2:01 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks "You have to notify all these families"
HAHAHAHAHA. No, you absolutely do not. In fact, they're deliberately leaving bodies with the Russians and writing them off as MIA so they don't have to pay death benefits.
"Rhen one day you tell everyone "game changer! We blew up their ammo, their army will wither and die." But the next day you lose another 100-200 troops. And the day after that."
And that's been happening since the start of the war. TB-2, Javlin, NLAW, switchblade drones, M777s, HIMARS, and on and on. |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 2:06 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag "they're deliberately leaving bodies with the Russians and writing them off as MIA"
And that's how they are notifying the families. By lying to them and keeping secrets. People notice when they suddenly don't hear from their husband or father. If the government is telling these people "we have no idea what happened to them," does that really make them feel any better than if the govt told them the truth? You don't think a good number of these people fantasize about putting a bullet in Zelensky themselves? 100-200/day, most with friends, family and neighbors who miss them.
This is exactly why I don't think Russia will have to do much fighting in Kiev. |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 2:08 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks Sometimes they even angrily respond "we don't know, maybe they even went over to the Russians."
I see your point, I just see it as an optimistic POV. If you talk to pro-Zelinsky Ukrainians they honestly seem to think they're winning. Now, by the time Russia is at Kiev that will probably change but who knows. |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 2:10 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag If they were in Russia they could facetime with their kids, and for that matter Russia seems happy to show off their defectors. But yeah I'm being pushy and I know this isn't a mainstream view. I might be shitty at this and have only ever watched war from the sidelines. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882925) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 2:25 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks To your earlier point on conscription, watch this video: https://twitter.com/The_Real_Fly/status/1549758394638163973
|
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 5:16 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag They are forcibly rounding up criminals but being soft gloved with the general population. Ironically this is probably due to the fact that Ukraine is under martial law. Zelensky wants this 1992 conscription law enforced, and announced that it WOULD be enforced, but this freaked out a lot of people and the military doods who handle actual law enforcement had to walk back Zelensky's statement. There isn't a civil administration Zelensky can appeal to unless he ends martial law (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44883928) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:07 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag Russia didn't have to take all of Germany to take Berlin. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882538) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:09 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks True, but the situation in Ukraine is fundamentally different. For one, Germany was under attack from all sides. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882550) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:12 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag The point is you don't have to take cities in order from least to most important. You can take them as the opportunity presents itself, and in most wars, most cities are taken without force. Kabul had defenders until all of a sudden it didn't. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882569) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:14 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks "The point is you don't have to take cities in order from least to most important"
I never suggested this. I'm saying that Kiev is a tough nut to crack. Their top problem is Western support coming from the west of the country. Choking Kiev off from that support would make the huge battle much easier. |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:28 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag Kiev is only "tough" if you think Ukrainians will put up a fight. I've seen zero evidence Ukrainians are willing to do this though. Maybe in February they were willing but not now. Their casualty rates are way too high to sustain morale for any length of time. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882677) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:30 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks Holy crap, I've had this exact same conversation with my dad. They obviously are still fighting, otherwise the entire front would collapse in. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882685) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:36 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag You keep thinking this requires constant fighting. Most wars don't. Even Genghis Khan didn't have to fight that much. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882726) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:10 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks People keep ignoring the basic reality that Kiev is a HUGE city with about 4 million people that will likely require an encirclement that will last for months. To do that, Russia will need to control all the space around it and for that to happen they will need to push up to that area generally. They would need 100k+ troops just for that operation. I wouldn't be surprised if they push into the west of the country before attacking Kiev.
Or they could just nuke it. Seriously wouldn't be surprised if that happens. |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:16 PM Author: indigo toaster friendly grandma this is cr. i think it's more likely that Belarus formally joins the fight and there's an invasion from the northwest through Lutsk. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882220) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:28 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks I've heard this one but just don't buy that the involvement of Belarus would be the huge gamechanger that people seem to think it is. They just can't field enough troops, they lack modern equipment and experience using it, and most importantly - the infrastructure to get to Kiev from Belarus is mediocre at best. In Donbass Russia heavily utilizes a strong rail network that exists because it is the most industrialized part of Ukraine. That doesn't exist north of Kiev. They have to use regular roads. Or sink in mud. All bad options.
Not that it can't be done, but Russia is running this invasion on a very small force which means that encircling a huge and well defended city is problematic. Especially since on the priority list Kiev is pretty low right now (after Donbass, Kharkov, Nikolaev and Odessa). |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:33 PM Author: indigo toaster friendly grandma but russia could pretty easily funnel supplies and troops through belarus and into ukraine. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882309) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:20 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks Of course, and they've done that throughout the war. But logistically, it is problematic because of the state of Belarus's military infrastructure. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882624) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2022 11:01 AM Author: maroon cracking field nowag Everything is "problematic" in war. The British had problems getting ammo at one point during the Zulu war, and the Zulu were 100x the warriors Ukraine can put up. But the British were tenacious, they brainstormed ways to get ammo to the troops, and eventually they did so. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44894194) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:34 PM Author: aquamarine school cafeteria goal in life To be fair,
"Not that it can't be done, but Russia is running this invasion on a very small force"
What??? But all of the MFE military strategist Ukrainemos (almost all of whom are retired ex-military with degrees from Westpoint etc) have assured me that Russia is basically tapped out at this point since they have poured everything they had into this failed invasion (which was never much to begin with) and now like half of Russia's army has already been killed or injured -- and that was BEFORE Putin himself got assassinated to death by Alzheimers Brain Cancer which was induced by angry and extremely powerful Jewish oligarchs with ray guns last month when they rolled out the palace coup! |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:24 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag Constantinople and Saigon were even bigger but it didn't matter. No one was suicidal enough to stand up to the invaders. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882271) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:31 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks Different scenarios though. And N. Vietnam was fully mobilized. They weren't fighting using a fairly small expeditionary force. BTW, this isn't me saying Russia's strategy is wrong here. Mobilization is dangerous for a variety of reasons and it may be totally unnecessary over the long run. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882294) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:31 PM Author: Galvanic carnelian pervert heaven Why would you assume that Russians are not just as constrained against using nukes as the West? This is a very funny assumption repeating itself. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882299) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:34 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks Because they're just not? I can give a few examples though. Russia invests far more heavily in their nuclear arsenal. Their weapons are not only more numerous but also far newer. They invest in development in ways the West does not. The reason the West doesn't bother is because the West has little interest in using them. That isn't true for Russia, therefore it continually invests in them despite being far more cash strapped. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882313) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:12 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag Russia hasn't ever nuked anyone. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882572) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:16 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks Russia has never been in a position where it has felt the need to. It isn't there yet in Ukraine either. But Ukraine is viewed as an existential war. They would definitely use nukes before losing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882603) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 2:17 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag I think their strategy of cutting off food and energy could be just as devastating, but with much less negative publicity attached to it if done right. Russia is clearly threatening to starve and freeze Ukraine in the fall, and I'm hopeful those threats will be enough flip cities to Russia before people get too skinny. I can see them possibly using nukes if for some reason they aren't able to keep doing siege tactics. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882958) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 2:25 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks Agreed. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44883004) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 3:26 PM Author: Galvanic carnelian pervert heaven So you have no evidence at all that they don’t feel the constraints. It literally doesn’t matter if the US developed more because we could destroy the world 10 times over. If your opinion is that somehow the Russian’s could defeat the US in a nuclear war without destroying itself, just LOL at you. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44883306) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 12:57 PM Author: hairraiser gas station Anderson Cooper, Ben Stiller, and the rest of the Avengers (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882479) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:13 PM Author: rough-skinned school The answer to OP is that, pre-war, HATO trained up a rapid reaction force which is stationed in Kiev. That is the unit which squashed the VDV raid at Hostomel airport on day 1 and continued to wreck the Russians in the Kiev suburbs until they retreated (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882581) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:31 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks "That is the unit which squashed the VDV raid at Hostomel airport on day 1"
Not much of a squash since the VDV pushed that unit out a few days later and held Gostomel until the pull-out. If they can't defeat a single VDV unit that can't be the answer to an all out assault. |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:38 PM Author: rough-skinned school There was a much larger element which arrived overland and emplaced in hostomel/bucha. I am talking about the unit which assaulted from air and took 50% kia in 1 day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882744) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:41 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks I don't think it was anywhere near 50% unless you're including all injuries (including minor ones). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44882764) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2022 2:40 PM Author: Sinister Glittery Trailer Park Striped Hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44895469) |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:13 PM Author: swollen cumskin How was your coma?
Russia tried this in march. It failed.
Russia has advantage in donbass where it can grind down and try to encircle afu's best units. This seems to be extent of russian capability.
Once thats done, as noted kharkiv, nikolaev and potentially odessa are all pribly higher priority and lower hanging fruit. Zaporhizia too.
It could be a long war, so who knows strategic outlook 6 months from now. But now, no way. A |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 1:18 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks Generally agree given current resource commitments. And I'm going to note, destroying the AFU's best units is going to make the rest of the war much easier.
I think this war will take years. Prior wars to conquer/re-conquer Ukraine all took years.
EDIT: Just a note that they didn't try to take Kiev in March. That was impossible with the limited manpower they deployed. |
|
Date: July 20th, 2022 6:58 PM Author: swollen cumskin They partially encircled it and were clearly hoping to elicit a regime change. At which they could have entered the city.
I dont buy that the whole northern front was an elaborate ruse. Those resources could have been used in a different and vetter way if they didnt at least hope to take kiev. |
|
Date: July 21st, 2022 5:15 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks There's a Russian tactic called "escalate to deescalate." You forget that initially, before they even invaded, they wanted to threaten Kiev into accepting their terms. Then, they wanted to threaten Kiev with their army right on Kiev's doorstep to accept their terms. Then, when it became clear that they were going to fight and it was all going to be decided on the battlefield, they had to totally recalibrate tactics, at which point they pulled their forces around Kiev back and threw them into active fronts.
They just didn't have enough troops there to actually encircle the city over the long term. |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2022 10:25 AM Author: maroon cracking field nowag Assad never had to encircle Aleppo. God damn libs are stoopid, think they learned war from playing Civ. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44894070) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2022 12:53 PM Author: Provocative violet wrinkle wagecucks Assad had a huge number of combined forces in Aleppo (Kurdish, Russian and Syrian all worked together there). They also DID cut off several key routes for the Islamist forces, which effectively served the same function. While you don't have to encircle large urban environments, doing so makes taking them much easier because it prevents them from being resupplied. That's why the Russians did that in Grozny, for example. That's why they're doing that at difficult points in Ukraine like Mariupol. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44894844) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2022 3:54 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag I think it's a lot more complicated than that because sieges affect internal politics within the city. That's what happened in Aleppo. You could get resupplied in the rebel controlled areas, but there were checkpoints that prevented internal movement within the city. Furthermore Assad/Russia could also bring in supplies and help citizens who showed loyalty. What ultimately broke the siege was convincing the population that the rebels were losers who hid in parking garages, barely had any food themselves and couldn't turn on electricity. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44895948) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2022 5:19 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag All I asked was who is defending Kiev, not who was defending it in March (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44890255) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2022 9:23 PM Author: swollen cumskin Ah why didnt u say so. Here is a map u might find interesting: https://militaryland.net/ukraine/deployment-map/
Its frequently updated but assuredly not 100% qccurate and even where accurate thete is often more nuance than can be captured in an interactive map. Still, it seems pretty good.
To answer your question:
1st Presidential Brigade, National Guard Omega Special Force Battalion, National Guard 10th Special Forces Detachment 110th Mechanized Brigade 15th Transport Aviation Brigade Kyiv Regiment, Special Police Force Myrotvorets Regiment, Special Police Force 25th Public Protection Brigade, National Guard Kulchytsky Battalion, National Guard 96th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade
Among others. |
|
Date: July 21st, 2022 11:53 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag When you touch the icons on the map, the ones around Kiev show "date last reported" in March. I found one that reported in April, but it's officially late July now. Do we even have reports from June? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44892416) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2022 6:59 AM Author: swollen cumskin You should write a letter demanding more updates (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44893558) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2022 10:23 AM Author: maroon cracking field nowag It seems like Ukraine has a strong incentive to dissuade Russia from assaulting Kiev. If they still have troops guarding Kiev, why keep it a secret? That's their capital! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44894064) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2022 2:45 PM Author: swollen cumskin I imagine russia has a good picture of what units are in and around kiev. Hell you can probably find out wkth a few hours scouring telegram. Seems not worth it for civilians. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44895507) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2022 5:05 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag Holy shit libs, I called this SIX DAYS AGO.
http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5158879&mc=9&forum_id=2 |
|
Date: August 5th, 2022 4:54 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#44969592) |
|
Date: August 5th, 2022 5:19 PM Author: deep crotch Am I taking crazy pills? Russia literally TRIED to take Kiev in the first weeks of the war, they failed then retreated to the border. The entire northern front has been static since that time.
What the hell is going on in this thread? |
|
Date: November 17th, 2022 7:04 PM Author: maroon cracking field nowag Op here. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#45509051) |
|
Date: April 8th, 2023 3:34 PM Author: Topaz indecent weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5154518&forum_id=2#46161210) |