Jamie Dimon: America is fucked based on its debt in about 10 years
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Date: May 7th, 2024 12:33 PM Author: Pearly bonkers really tough guy
he's right, you can just do the math yourself. the compound interest from the national depth reaches escape velocity in about that time frame. it's very straightforward
the $15 trillion printed from covid was a black swan event that barely anybody acknowledges or understands. $15 trillion is an *insane* amount of money
normies are so desensitized to this stuff that they glossed over it entirely. even like 15-20 years ago, if the government printed $15 trillion all at once, the public would have been freaking out
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526035&forum_id=2#47642013) |
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Date: May 7th, 2024 1:38 PM Author: Pearly bonkers really tough guy
who even knows man. other countries are an similar situations too
the only safe assumption i can make is that it's very bullish for other asset classes like crypto, land, etc
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526035&forum_id=2#47642165)
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Date: May 8th, 2024 9:02 AM Author: Fragrant Parlour Jap
"million" "billion" and "trillion" sound WAY too much alike imo.
I think the avg normie processes a billion as like 10 million. not 1,000 million. If we were required to say "million million" instead of trillion I think peoples' eyes would open
That being said, maybe people simply can't comprehend numbers that large no matter what you call them. it's just monopoly money, numbers on a screen. a million is a lot, a billion is a lot, a trillion is a lot. whatever, the adults are in the room. surely they wouldn't do anything stupid.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526035&forum_id=2#47644528) |
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Date: May 8th, 2024 10:05 PM Author: Pearly bonkers really tough guy
totally agreed
a regular person's brain doesn't think abstractly enough (and isn't capable of it) to understand what a "trillion" is. or even 100 million, really. if that
numbers that large are entirely abstract because they can never be physically/spatially represented in any coherent, legible, meaningful way. and regular people's brains operate entirely in the visuospatial and the emotional. not the abstract
and it shouldn't be their job, either (these people should be illiterate and milking cows etc)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526035&forum_id=2#47646738) |
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Date: May 7th, 2024 2:11 PM Author: cracking nowag theatre
To be fair,
Jews will push inflation so high that in real world purchasing power, $15 trillion in 2034 will be ~$200 million 2024.
Don't worry, it's all good!
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526035&forum_id=2#47642286) |
Date: May 7th, 2024 4:01 PM Author: beady-eyed macaca tanning salon
flashforward ten years. Debt:GDP is 130% or 150%.
What actually does any of this mean? Like, what happens?
Is this how it goes:
1. The US tells creditor nations "Sorry, not going to pay you"
2. Creditor nations can't do shit militarily, so they say, "ok fuck you, we are going to restrict US goods in our markets
(That seems suicidal for these nations)
3. US doesnt really want to stick these debt-holders, so it massively re-allocates dollars to pay down some of the debt, telling the current dollar recipients, hahaurfukd, no more social security, no more help with highways, we are laying off half of the desk jockeys who process military payments, everything is going to get really shitty if it relies on us right now
I have a retards level of economic understanding, so I don't quite understand what happens if the US cannot pay its debts
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526035&forum_id=2#47642641) |
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Date: May 8th, 2024 8:51 AM Author: beady-eyed macaca tanning salon
makes sense that printing + austerity = fucked
but what about defaulting or negotiating down the debts? I confess I dont really know who holds the debt and what percentage are foreign vassal states who can be told to get fucked, or domestic entities.
what happens in the hypo that the fed govt says "we're paying 80 cents on the dollar and thats the end of the conversation", or "we'll pay the principle, the interest can get fucked"
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526035&forum_id=2#47644511) |
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Date: May 8th, 2024 5:04 PM Author: Mahogany irate indian lodge partner
Much of the debt is held domestically, especially if you count SS and Med obligations. You could default on it but it’s a career-ending move for everyone involved so they will print and manage spending instead.
Foreign debt is more negotiable but it would provoke a global financial crisis and lead to capital flight from the US, ongoing printing and inflation, weakened purchasing power for US consumers.
It’s not that you literally can’t tell creditors to fuck off, it’s that doing so turns your country into Argentina. Which is a totally cool place if you already own a property you like, don’t need a job, and have safe assets outside the country, but otherwise is 100% dysfunctional and shitty for everyone.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526035&forum_id=2#47645956) |
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Date: May 8th, 2024 5:30 PM Author: beady-eyed macaca tanning salon
tyft. not flame, youve clarified an issue Id never really understood. makes it seem like there are two, and only two possibilities:
1. We somehow, via tech or ai, grow our GDP massively. honestly possible
2. debt:gdp does breech 100% and starts going parabolic, in which case we print + cut. Inflation and job losses go crazy, and most of those jobs dont ever come back bc most of them are unnecessary even now and will be more so in 15 years
i guess a third possibility is a world war, hehe, which completely remakes the global economy and eliminates a good slice of our population.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526035&forum_id=2#47646021) |
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Date: May 8th, 2024 6:11 PM Author: Bistre den
It's actually easily knowable. There will be a general decline in standards of living as prices increase due to brrrrrrrr and the government takes more of each dollar in taxes. This is already happening, we're just going to get more of it.
Perfect example: even disregarding interest rates, the house I bought is only 2/3 of what I could have afforded a few years prior to buying it. Ten years from now, someone in my economic bracket will not be able to afford this house at all, and even though I will have fully paid off the mortgage by then, it will still be a large financial burden because of the increased property taxes.
Basically, the rest of your life is going to be a game of musical chairs where it becomes harder and harder to maintain the same standard of living. And avoiding niggers will become disproportionately harder than just the mere price increase of assets, because browns will have the numbers to vote more transfer payments from you to them.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526035&forum_id=2#47646153) |
Date: May 7th, 2024 4:24 PM Author: Drab mildly autistic patrolman
What a retard
“I think government departments should tell the public, ‘You gave me $50 billion. I said I was going to do X, here’s what I did,” Dimon said, before Ryan pushed back, noting government doesn’t work that way.
“I’m staying at JPMorgan for now,” Dimon joked in response.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526035&forum_id=2#47642697) |
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Date: May 7th, 2024 6:24 PM Author: zombie-like stead
Yep.
No one knows what will happen or what to do. Ds want to raise taxes, but it'll never be enough as they also won't raise taxes on enough people either.
There might be a precedent in the UK debt from the Napoleonic wars. If US economy rapidly grows - which it may very well do - then this will become less a problem as long as we don't keep adding to the debt. Har har har.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526035&forum_id=2#47643110) |
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Date: May 8th, 2024 6:57 PM Author: zombie-like stead
I have heard some talk on this concept. As cash becomes meaningless and money is nothing more than numbers that flashes from one computer screen to another, hypothethetically paying us salaries and we hypothetically transfer it into mortgage payments and mutual funds, which hypothetically grow in value without us doing anything about it, it is all imaginary and based on nothing more than confidence that it is happening, then why not debt too?
Debt only has significance if we give it significance. Let's just change the system so it no longer has significance. Why not?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526035&forum_id=2#47646300)
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Date: May 8th, 2024 8:33 PM Author: Mahogany irate indian lodge partner
If mortgage payments are imaginary, stop paying and see what happens. In some states and situations you can probably keep living there for a good while, but eventually…
Jobs are different as many workers produce nothing of value but retain sinecures because measuring productivity is hard and firing people is icky. However some amount of actual or virtual showing up is generally still required, and the money system is how our overlords incentivize and enforce the desired compliance.
But sure money is all imaginary, smoke some weed and ask mom and dad for more when you run out.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526035&forum_id=2#47646475) |
Date: May 9th, 2024 12:37 PM Author: Greedy spectacular chapel
Interest payments as a percentage of GDP or a percentage of the overall fed budget are still well below the highs they reached in the 80's-90's. What's changed is that our economy operates in a lower interest rate environment. The fed funds rate right now (5.25-5.5), which we think is sky high, is actually pretty average historically. And the Fed is already talking about cutting in the near future! The relatively low rates give us a lot of room to maneuver.
There's just too many dollars abroad that have to go somewhere, and that means the demand for US debt (both public and private) is and will remain sky high.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYOIGDA188S
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526035&forum_id=2#47648131) |
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Date: May 10th, 2024 7:37 PM Author: multi-colored pistol
how does this
"There's just too many dollars abroad that have to go somewhere, and that means the demand for US debt (both public and private) is and will remain sky high."
support the idea that USA should continue to run significant budget deficits
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5526035&forum_id=2#47651885) |
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