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what year will the last human die?
| boltzmann penis | 07/21/26 |
| going pumo irl | 07/21/26 |
| boltzmann penis | 07/22/26 |
| .,.,.,.,.,,,,...,...,, | 07/22/26 |
| boltzmann penis | 07/22/26 |
| gerry mander | 07/22/26 |
| boltzmann penis | 07/22/26 |
| gerry mander | 07/22/26 |
| luke the drifter | 07/22/26 |
| gerry mander | 07/22/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: July 21st, 2026 12:21 PM Author: boltzmann penis (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2)#50014248) |
Date: July 21st, 2026 12:22 PM Author: going pumo irl 1945 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2)#50014252) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:03 AM Author: boltzmann penis oh. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2)#50016476) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:04 AM Author: .,.,.,.,.,,,,...,...,, Never. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2)#50016479) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:13 AM Author: boltzmann penis this is obviously wrong. even if we don’t kill ourselves or have some random, horrendous catastrophe befall the planet, in, say, a billion years there will still be no “humans” as our progeny will have evolved into something technically different. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2)#50016491) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:07 AM Author: gerry mander I feel like if humans manage to survive to 2200 (i.e. become technologically advanced enough to solve climate change/resource limitations/post-AI society) then I'm not sure what would subsequently stop them from surviving multiple millennia (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2)#50016485) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:10 AM Author: boltzmann penis as power/technology increases, extinction-level event capabilities become further democratized. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2)#50016488) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:17 AM Author: gerry mander on the face of it this would appear to be true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2)#50016499) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:22 AM Author: luke the drifter (definite and ineradicable gauge of its upward moving) AI says it will be late 23rd Century: Based on a linear decline of the global Total Fertility Rate (TFR), humanity will go completely extinct in approximately 244 to 264 years, with the global birth rate hitting zero in exactly 143.75 years.1. Calculate annual TFR declineThe starting fertility rate is \(2.3\).It drops \(0.4\) every \(25\) years.\(\text{Decline\ Rate}=\frac{0.4}{25}=0.016\text{\ per\ year}\)2. Determine zero birth yearWe define TFR over time \(t\):\(T(t)=2.3-0.016t\)Set fertility to zero:\(2.3-0.016t=0\)\(t=\frac{2.3}{0.016}=143.75\text{\ years}\)Global births completely stop at \(143.75\) years.3. Add remaining human lifespanExtinction occurs when the last person dies.The maximum human lifespan is \(100\) to \(120\) years.Add this lifespan to the zero birth year:Lower estimate: \(143.75 + 100 = 243.75 \text{ years}\)Upper estimate: \(143.75 + 120 = 263.75 \text{ years}\)Final Projection ✅Under these specific parameters, humanity will go completely extinct in 243.75 to 263.75 years from now.If you want to refine this projection, let me know if you would like to:Switch to an exponential decay model.Factor in shifting global life expectancies.Analyze regional variations in demographic trends. |
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Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:23 AM Author: gerry mander declining fertility is great for the planet but terrible for capitalism (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2)#50016512) |