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U.S. strikes unlikely to move Iran, intelligence reports say

Iran’s government is unlikely to feel significant impa...
queensbridge benzo
  07/21/26
i mean it's pretty obvious that there are some people in ira...
UhOh
  07/21/26


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Date: July 21st, 2026 1:00 PM
Author: queensbridge benzo

Iran’s government is unlikely to feel significant impact or soften its negotiating position as a result of new rounds of U.S. military strikes like those now underway, according to a new intelligence assessment described by current and former U.S. officials.

Analysts at American spy agencies also have concluded that Tehran and Washington are, for now, stuck in an indefinite limbo between peace and war, the officials said — an uneasy dynamic given the increasingly deadly nature of the tit-for-tat hostilities between the two nations. The current and former officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the assessments because of their sensitivity.

The findings, which have been briefed to the administration, appear to underscore the dilemma President Donald Trump faces in a war that he and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began in late February.

Trump’s current course of ever-expanding attacks appears to have led to a stalemate. But with the war deeply unpopular at home, continuing escalation by the United States, such as the possible introduction of ground troops, poses political risks for the president with no guarantee of military success.

The U.S. military said last weekend that two American service members were killed in an Iranian attack on an air base in Jordan on Friday, as hostilities resumed following the collapse of last month’s ceasefire between Washington and Tehran. U.S. Central Command, in charge of operations in the region, said Monday it had launched fresh strikes, this time in what Trump said was retaliation for the troops’ deaths. It was the ninth consecutive night the U.S. military has bombed Iran; Centcom announced Monday afternoon that it had begun a 10th wave of attacks.

Iran retaliated with attempted strikes of its own Monday morning. Kuwait and Bahrain said they had intercepted aerial attacks.

On another front of Mideast conflict, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia said it would impose a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, threatening the vital Bab al-Mandeb strait between the Arabian Peninsula and Africa that leads to the Suez Canal.

With the prospect of a wider war erupting again, both Iran and the U.S. signaled they were open to fresh negotiations, although no progress was reported.

A spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry, Esmaeil Baghaei, said in a news conference in Tehran on Monday that messages from Washington had reached Tehran through intermediaries in Qatar, according to Iranian media.

“We have received messages, without going into details, but the main point is that the diplomatic apparatus has been active in recent days and ideas have been conveyed to us by certain mediators,” Baghaei said.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. remains open to a diplomatic solution in Iran and that parts of Iran’s government are also open to it, but hardliners have gotten in the way.

“They continue to send signals that they want to talk, that they want to negotiate but their behavior is what we’re responding to and their behavior is they’re launching missiles and drones at ships, including tonight,” Rubio told reporters Sunday evening as he departed for the Philippines.

In previous rounds of talks, the Iranians have proven to be obstinate negotiators, particularly on key points such as its nuclear program. At the same time, the administration has repeatedly said Iran has capitulated to U.S. demands, only to see Tehran deny agreement was reached.

The two sides reached a ceasefire in April to end hostilities and open the Strait of Hormuz, with negotiations on key issues deferred, only to see the deal crumble over control of the waterway, a key Persian Gulf chokepoint for oil and other exports.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884747&forum_id=2).#50014344)



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Date: July 21st, 2026 1:08 PM
Author: UhOh

i mean it's pretty obvious that there are some people in iran who want to talk but they're completely disconnected from the other people who want to keep blowing shit up, which is exactly how the irgc set this thing up to function. no one is really in control, which means no one can really end this thing. as long as there's at least one true believer with access to drones the war goes on. and i imagine attempting to negotiate is a death sentence, so it's only a matter of time before those guys all disappear and we're left with only warmos.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884747&forum_id=2).#50014362)