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Leopold Aschenbrenner essay on the AI arms race that will change world by 2027
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Date: June 12th, 2024 3:47 PM Author: Fragrant Shrine Multi-billionaire Really good read and a podcast he did about it. Dude is very smart.
tl;dr version: superintelligence is within reach and the capex to get there is being spent, the teams are being assembled, the power plants built, etc.; eventually US government will step in to oversee the project as a kind of Manhattan Project because a six-month head start is the equivalent of 20-30 years in arms development; things get really weird from a game theory perspective once superintelligence is achieved but before the robots take over. It's US v. China with the Middle East and Russia posing major risks because of their abundant natural energy resources.
Essay: https://situational-awareness.ai/ Four-hour podcast: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/leopold-aschenbrenner |
Date: June 12th, 2024 4:28 PM Author: Fragrant Shrine Multi-billionaire (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#47740975) |
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Date: June 12th, 2024 4:50 PM Author: Primrose costumed telephone yarmulke pretty chill that the world will end in five years and I spend my precious remaining days poasting on a decrepit law school admissions forum (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#47741056) |
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Date: June 12th, 2024 6:14 PM Author: Fragrant Shrine Multi-billionaire It’s part of the data set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#47741277) |
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Date: June 12th, 2024 7:22 PM Author: angry smoky institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#47741556) |
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Date: June 12th, 2024 7:25 PM Author: embarrassed to the bone fantasy-prone set *superintelligent AI addressing the world* "I'm gay and retarded" |
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Date: June 12th, 2024 7:26 PM Author: angry smoky institution 180000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#47741570) |
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Date: June 14th, 2024 9:03 PM Author: Fragrant Shrine Multi-billionaire (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#47748063) |
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Date: June 12th, 2024 7:22 PM Author: underhanded national weed whacker He just had another podcast with Chollet that was interesting and raised some concerns about this LLM maximalist point of view. LLMs still perform quite poorly on ARC. There are real concerns that transformer scaling will not address all the problems with out of distribution generalization and algorithmic reasoning. This buys a bit of time and probably pushes out timelines past 2027. Things will become progressively weirder though over the next decade and it’s hard to see how AGI is out more than 15 years. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#47741554) |
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Date: June 12th, 2024 7:29 PM Author: slippery puce french chef nothing being done in "ai" right now is a road to actual intelligence. what we have right now is essentially a sophisticated version of a database that can accept unstructured queries and that can interpolate between dataset entries. it would take a complete paradigm shift to get to something qualitatively more powerful than that. may or may not happen. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#47741579) |
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Date: June 13th, 2024 11:34 AM Author: Fragrant Shrine Multi-billionaire This is not right. The trend lines are clear. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#47743102) |
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Date: June 13th, 2024 12:51 PM Author: slippery puce french chef no (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#47743420) |
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Date: June 13th, 2024 1:23 PM Author: underhanded national weed whacker Most people seem like pattern matchers who aren’t able to robustly deal with novel situations. I would trust GPT-4 more to solve a random math word problem or answer RC questions from an LSAT than most people. The interpolation/extrapolation distinction becomes less and less meaningful in high dimensional spaces when you are training on everything. I agree LLMs don’t go all the way but they very likely go a lot further than they do now and there are other things in the AI space used for game playing that look like they can be combined with LLMs to bootstrap capabilities. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#47743513) |
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Date: June 13th, 2024 2:01 PM Author: slippery puce french chef llms far surpass humans at defined, stereotyped tasks that we have a lot of data for. they can't generalize to unseen environments (new probability distributions) and they lack an inherent teleology to prompt them interact with those environments. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#47743680) |
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Date: June 13th, 2024 2:47 PM Author: underhanded national weed whacker I agree with this but most people suck at dealing with novel situations too and they can’t even do the routine cognitive tasks that GPT-4 excels at. I don’t think a median human could be made competitive with it at reading comprehension tasks. With 100x the training compute, there is no chance. There is really no principled reason why LLMs paired with model based RL couldn’t be made data efficient and adaptable. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#47743890) |
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Date: June 13th, 2024 4:14 PM Author: slippery puce french chef this is silly (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#47744229) |
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Date: June 13th, 2024 11:39 AM Author: Mustard native I, for one, cant wait for AI to do all my TPS reports for me. Whatever will I do once those are automated? Never mind that basically everything we do in Compliance is bespoke transaction monitoring and the vanilla bulk transaction stuff was automated 24-25 years ago and hasnt had humans involved in a generation anyway.
Like the biggest thing is Compliance now is marijuana and the hemp exemption BS that plagues us. The fuck is AI going to do about any of that? |
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Date: June 13th, 2024 11:43 AM Author: Fragrant Shrine Multi-billionaire The interesting thing about his essay is the geopolitics part. The time when AGI is pursued by private companies is coming to a close. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#47743136) |
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Date: June 16th, 2024 7:28 PM Author: Fragrant Shrine Multi-billionaire (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#47752081) |
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Date: October 27th, 2024 3:00 PM Author: underhanded national weed whacker Ivanka read it and endorsed it. Can’t believe how much AI is starting to affect elite thinking
https://x.com/IvankaTrump/status/1839002887600370145 |
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Date: October 27th, 2024 5:15 PM Author: Fragrant Shrine Multi-billionaire There’s like a five percent chance of total destruction and a five percent chance of positive total transformation. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#48247027) |
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Date: October 27th, 2024 6:20 PM Author: underhanded national weed whacker And the other scenarios? I don’t see much room for an outcome in between. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#48247316) |
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Date: October 27th, 2024 6:22 PM Author: umber contagious stage kitty pretty sure something like Idiocracy covers most of the 90% (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#48247323) |
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Date: October 27th, 2024 6:24 PM Author: crystalline digit ratio Nope. It's going to be a post-scarcity utopia, extinction, or some sort of truly weird outcome like everyone being uploaded into a simulation of something retarded for eternity. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#48247333) |
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Date: October 27th, 2024 8:36 PM Author: underhanded national weed whacker Right. Like what would be a plausible middle ground with hyper intelligent machines? You would have to believe intelligence tops at exactly the human level, when we have many reasons for believing that is not the case. Life can not go on in a normal way. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#48247755) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 9:37 PM Author: Fragrant Shrine Multi-billionaire (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#48270046) |
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Date: July 31st, 2026 12:16 AM Author: .,.,.,.,,,,.,,.,.,.,...,,..,, Where r we on this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#50035998) |
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Date: July 31st, 2026 12:23 AM Author: The Penis We are currently at a point where AI has surpassed almost all if not all humans in intelligence. And it's not even 2027 yet. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#50036002) |
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Date: July 31st, 2026 12:25 AM Author: .,.,.,.,,,,.,,.,.,.,...,,..,, lol we’ve got a live one here folks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#50036007) |
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Date: July 31st, 2026 12:26 AM Author: The Penis Do you think you are more intelligent than Claude Fable? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#50036009) |
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Date: July 31st, 2026 12:45 AM Author: .,.,.,.,,,,.,,.,.,.,...,,..,, Yes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#50036028) |
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Date: July 31st, 2026 4:46 PM Author: valar vettiri morghulis At what? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#50037372) |
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Date: July 31st, 2026 1:57 AM Author: Ceci n'est pas un pumo He seems extremely gay (but I guess he isn't?)
https://x.com/dnapway/status/2082876150322540657 |
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Date: July 31st, 2026 4:46 PM Author: valar vettiri morghulis That’s what Alpha zoomers look and sound like now (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#50037373) |
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Date: July 31st, 2026 4:46 PM Author: valar vettiri morghulis lol at this super genius being a) right and b) blowing up his fund with leverage and c) having to sell all his positions to Citadel.
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Date: August 1st, 2026 11:45 PM Author: valar vettiri morghulis (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#50040160) |
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Date: August 2nd, 2026 12:13 AM Author: Kenneth Play (emotional girth) lol cr, but also, 1) he got married this week while it was blowing up, and 2) he's still up 80% or something this year (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#50040182) |
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Date: August 1st, 2026 11:45 PM Author: Karlspank what a stupid fucking name, holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#50040161) |
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Date: August 1st, 2026 11:58 PM Author: Ceci n'est pas un pumo He's German.
And you're not white. |
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Date: August 2nd, 2026 12:14 AM Author: screen memories oh no my arms are made of ai and racing around (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#50040183) |
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Date: August 2nd, 2026 12:26 AM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) Ken Griffin now owns this guy. Does that mean Ken griffin is smarter, or just more valuable? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#50040199) |
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Date: August 2nd, 2026 12:33 AM Author: ,.,....,..,.,.,,,,..,..,.,..,.,.,.,... Ken did well here but it took him until 2026 to realize AI is not flame and the world won’t remain the same for much longer.
https://x.com/fundamentedge/status/2055675389767516544?s=46
He was calling it slop a couple years ago when it was clear further scaling would bring us to this point and beyond |
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Date: August 2nd, 2026 12:35 AM Author: the walter white of this generation (walt jr.) Is he gonna use leopold’s mouth as a toilet? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5539938&forum_id=2/en-en#50040204) |