The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| provocative copper boiling water | 12/10/15 |
| swashbuckling new version round eye | 12/12/15 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 01/02/17 |
| Dashing Dopamine | 01/06/16 |
| Salmon lascivious regret | 01/06/16 |
| Salmon lascivious regret | 06/05/16 |
| vivacious sadistic den | 03/26/16 |
| Narrow-minded metal church | 01/02/17 |
| fighting fuchsia location french chef | 10/25/18 |
| know-it-all idiot | 12/10/15 |
| odious library | 12/10/15 |
| Navy irradiated prole | 12/10/15 |
| Startled field | 12/10/15 |
| lemon market | 12/15/15 |
| Primrose supple sex offender roommate | 12/10/15 |
| twinkling double fault public bath | 12/10/15 |
| idiotic 180 azn | 12/10/15 |
| sickened magenta national cuckold | 12/11/15 |
| Heady office famous landscape painting | 12/12/15 |
| aggressive garrison | 12/16/15 |
| Hideous coffee pot institution | 01/04/16 |
| crusty charismatic home cumskin | 11/09/16 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 12/11/15 |
| trip dull locale legal warrant | 12/11/15 |
| Snowy Big Parlour | 12/11/15 |
| sickened magenta national cuckold | 12/11/15 |
| Concupiscible Stead Affirmative Action | 12/12/15 |
| Magical alpha | 01/25/16 |
| fragrant plum ratface forum | 11/10/16 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 12/12/15 |
| Blathering bistre puppy plaza | 12/12/15 |
| bronze sound barrier | 12/12/15 |
| stimulating talking theater mad cow disease | 12/12/15 |
| Pontificating Crotch Elastic Band | 12/15/15 |
| drunken stag film | 12/21/15 |
| balding toaster | 12/12/15 |
| Yellow Station Jew | 12/12/15 |
| Multi-colored Native Gay Wizard | 12/12/15 |
| swollen faggotry | 12/12/15 |
| Mind-boggling citrine property digit ratio | 12/12/15 |
| Claret hairraiser chapel | 12/12/15 |
| twinkling double fault public bath | 12/15/15 |
| twinkling double fault public bath | 12/16/15 |
| bright marvelous toilet seat background story | 12/15/15 |
| Vibrant school cafeteria | 12/15/15 |
| beady-eyed outnumbered feces hall | 12/15/15 |
| Talented Awkward Community Account | 12/15/15 |
| rusted haunted graveyard deer antler | 12/15/15 |
| Black messiness tanning salon | 12/15/15 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 12/15/15 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 12/15/15 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 12/15/15 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 12/15/15 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 12/15/15 |
| stirring house-broken mediation water buffalo | 01/05/16 |
| Magical alpha | 01/25/16 |
| Razzmatazz bull headed school bbw | 12/17/16 |
| up-to-no-good party of the first part | 05/18/16 |
| Appetizing Rough-skinned Blood Rage | 08/12/16 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 11/09/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Wine Fanboi | 11/09/16 |
| geriatric kitchen sneaky criminal | 11/09/16 |
| Slate box office | 10/22/20 |
| Cerebral effete gas station | 12/15/15 |
| Laughsome mother | 12/16/15 |
| seedy deep newt | 12/16/15 |
| milky knife | 12/16/15 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 12/16/15 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 12/17/15 |
| Thriller Useless Brakes | 12/18/15 |
| Dashing Dopamine | 01/06/16 |
| Splenetic soul-stirring mexican | 12/18/15 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 12/21/15 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 12/21/15 |
| drunken stag film | 12/21/15 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 12/30/15 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 12/30/15 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 01/04/16 |
| Hideous coffee pot institution | 01/04/16 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 01/05/16 |
| Magical alpha | 01/25/16 |
| Thriller Useless Brakes | 01/05/16 |
| Red athletic conference indian lodge | 01/05/16 |
| turquoise point yarmulke | 01/05/16 |
| titillating pistol | 01/05/16 |
| Ocher Corner Striped Hyena | 01/05/16 |
| titillating pistol | 01/05/16 |
| Dashing Dopamine | 01/06/16 |
| titillating pistol | 01/06/16 |
| Ocher Corner Striped Hyena | 01/05/16 |
| Appetizing Rough-skinned Blood Rage | 01/06/16 |
| drunken stag film | 01/07/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 01/08/16 |
| scarlet associate meetinghouse | 01/08/16 |
| drunken stag film | 01/08/16 |
| Thriller Useless Brakes | 01/09/16 |
| drunken stag film | 01/10/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 01/18/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 01/19/16 |
| Thriller Useless Brakes | 01/21/16 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 01/25/16 |
| aquamarine wonderful crackhouse | 01/25/16 |
| Magical alpha | 01/25/16 |
| aquamarine wonderful crackhouse | 02/09/16 |
| scarlet associate meetinghouse | 09/06/16 |
| Dashing Dopamine | 11/05/18 |
| Spectacular tantric pervert | 01/29/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 02/01/16 |
| nighttime hilarious lettuce | 02/01/16 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 02/01/16 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 02/07/16 |
| Red athletic conference indian lodge | 02/09/16 |
| orange heaven faggot firefighter | 02/09/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 02/20/16 |
| frozen piazza | 02/20/16 |
| up-to-no-good party of the first part | 02/24/16 |
| pearly circlehead friendly grandma | 02/24/16 |
| lavender police squad immigrant | 02/27/16 |
| bright marvelous toilet seat background story | 03/09/16 |
| pale twinkling uncleanness skinny woman | 03/15/16 |
| Navy irradiated prole | 03/15/16 |
| Vibrant school cafeteria | 03/16/16 |
| Histrionic Lodge Candlestick Maker | 02/24/16 |
| Frum boyish weed whacker pit | 02/24/16 |
| Vibrant school cafeteria | 07/21/16 |
| autistic gaping | 02/24/16 |
| Navy irradiated prole | 02/27/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 03/02/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 03/04/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 03/09/16 |
| Red athletic conference indian lodge | 03/09/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 03/15/16 |
| up-to-no-good party of the first part | 03/15/16 |
| Motley arrogant selfie brunch | 03/15/16 |
| Sinister boltzmann | 03/15/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 03/16/16 |
| twinkling double fault public bath | 03/16/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Wine Fanboi | 03/23/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 03/23/16 |
| Multi-colored Native Gay Wizard | 03/26/16 |
| Jade turdskin mad-dog skullcap | 03/26/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 03/26/16 |
| stirring house-broken mediation water buffalo | 03/28/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Wine Fanboi | 03/28/16 |
| odious library | 03/28/16 |
| Appetizing Rough-skinned Blood Rage | 08/12/16 |
| Dashing Dopamine | 11/05/18 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 03/28/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 03/29/16 |
| Pink Masturbator | 03/29/16 |
| Pink Masturbator | 03/29/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 03/29/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 03/29/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 04/01/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 04/04/16 |
| Pink Masturbator | 04/15/16 |
| Purple Floppy Rehab Voyeur | 04/15/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 04/19/16 |
| Pungent Diverse Nibblets | 04/20/16 |
| ruddy dysfunction theater stage | 04/20/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 04/24/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 04/25/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 04/26/16 |
| rambunctious ceo parlor | 04/26/16 |
| Useless maroon stage | 04/30/16 |
| low-t rigpig | 05/01/16 |
| low-t rigpig | 11/07/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 05/02/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Wine Fanboi | 05/02/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 05/03/16 |
| violent halford university | 05/03/16 |
| Glittery obsidian international law enforcement agency | 05/03/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 05/04/16 |
| scarlet associate meetinghouse | 05/04/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 05/05/16 |
| swollen faggotry | 05/05/16 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 05/05/16 |
| Frum boyish weed whacker pit | 05/05/16 |
| Blathering bistre puppy plaza | 05/18/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 05/18/16 |
| up-to-no-good party of the first part | 05/18/16 |
| Blathering bistre puppy plaza | 05/18/16 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 05/29/16 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 06/20/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 06/29/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 07/14/16 |
| Aromatic ticket booth | 07/15/16 |
| Appetizing Rough-skinned Blood Rage | 07/15/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 07/17/16 |
| scarlet associate meetinghouse | 07/17/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 07/21/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 07/22/16 |
| cocky avocado whorehouse | 07/22/16 |
| fear-inspiring curious karate | 07/23/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 07/24/16 |
| Contagious Disturbing Really Tough Guy Church Building | 07/25/16 |
| Pink Masturbator | 07/25/16 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 07/27/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 08/05/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 08/09/16 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 08/12/16 |
| scarlet associate meetinghouse | 08/12/16 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 08/12/16 |
| galvanic overrated tank | 08/12/16 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 08/30/16 |
| scarlet associate meetinghouse | 08/30/16 |
| scarlet associate meetinghouse | 09/06/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 09/13/16 |
| Pink Masturbator | 09/14/16 |
| balding toaster | 09/14/16 |
| Disrespectful Opaque Therapy | 09/15/16 |
| racy hell fat ankles | 09/15/16 |
| Salmon lascivious regret | 09/15/16 |
| Cyan Lay | 09/15/16 |
| Burgundy headpube resort | 09/15/16 |
| Exhilarant Angry Orchestra Pit Wrinkle | 09/19/16 |
| Exhilarant Angry Orchestra Pit Wrinkle | 09/19/16 |
| scarlet associate meetinghouse | 09/27/16 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 09/24/16 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 09/27/16 |
| scarlet associate meetinghouse | 09/27/16 |
| twinkling double fault public bath | 09/27/16 |
| Comical anal temple goyim | 10/08/16 |
| Mewling persian dilemma | 07/29/24 |
| Pink Masturbator | 09/28/16 |
| balding toaster | 09/28/16 |
| scarlet associate meetinghouse | 09/28/16 |
| ruddy dysfunction theater stage | 09/28/16 |
| Purple Floppy Rehab Voyeur | 09/28/16 |
| honey-headed death wish house | 10/08/16 |
| scarlet associate meetinghouse | 10/09/16 |
| Arousing Dog Poop | 10/09/16 |
| scarlet associate meetinghouse | 10/09/16 |
| Mischievous cruise ship | 10/09/16 |
| Pink Masturbator | 10/10/16 |
| Contagious Disturbing Really Tough Guy Church Building | 10/30/16 |
| Appetizing Rough-skinned Blood Rage | 11/01/16 |
| Cyan Lay | 11/01/16 |
| Ivory Volcanic Crater Senate | 11/02/16 |
| Talented Awkward Community Account | 11/02/16 |
| Pink Masturbator | 11/07/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle erotic stock car potus | 11/08/16 |
| Pink Masturbator | 11/08/16 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 11/08/16 |
| Pink Masturbator | 11/08/16 |
| bipolar menage | 11/08/16 |
| impertinent white mood | 11/08/16 |
| nighttime hilarious lettuce | 11/08/16 |
| Exhilarant Angry Orchestra Pit Wrinkle | 11/08/16 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 11/08/16 |
| Razzle alcoholic people who are hurt trump supporter | 11/09/16 |
| Disrespectful Opaque Therapy | 11/09/16 |
| Sienna generalized bond | 11/09/16 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 11/09/16 |
| Cyan Lay | 11/09/16 |
| Razzle alcoholic people who are hurt trump supporter | 11/09/16 |
| Contagious Disturbing Really Tough Guy Church Building | 11/09/16 |
| swollen faggotry | 11/09/16 |
| massive hissy fit | 12/03/16 |
| fragrant plum ratface forum | 12/07/16 |
| Razzmatazz bull headed school bbw | 12/17/16 |
| Fluffy main people | 10/11/24 |
| Electric unhinged marketing idea area | 11/09/16 |
| shivering chest-beating hairy legs | 11/09/16 |
| dun business firm | 11/09/16 |
| bat shit crazy vigorous sweet tailpipe | 11/09/16 |
| massive hissy fit | 11/09/16 |
| Appetizing Rough-skinned Blood Rage | 11/09/16 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 11/09/16 |
| Blathering bistre puppy plaza | 11/09/16 |
| scarlet associate meetinghouse | 11/09/16 |
| Light excitant nowag | 11/09/16 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 11/09/16 |
| Adventurous adulterous hunting ground space | 11/09/16 |
| bateful nursing home | 11/09/16 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 11/09/16 |
| Startled field | 11/09/16 |
| Splenetic soul-stirring mexican | 11/10/16 |
| aquamarine wonderful crackhouse | 11/10/16 |
| Salmon lascivious regret | 11/10/16 |
| cracking half-breed stage | 11/10/16 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 11/10/16 |
| Pink Masturbator | 11/10/16 |
| frozen piazza | 11/10/16 |
| Exhilarant Angry Orchestra Pit Wrinkle | 11/14/16 |
| Tripping gold factory reset button tattoo | 11/14/16 |
| exciting green site | 12/04/16 |
| Razzmatazz bull headed school bbw | 12/17/16 |
| Fluffy main people | 10/11/24 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 11/25/16 |
| Flatulent bisexual scourge upon the earth hospital | 12/03/16 |
| Mischievous cruise ship | 12/04/16 |
| Passionate lilac telephone | 12/07/16 |
| Salmon lascivious regret | 12/07/16 |
| Flatulent bisexual scourge upon the earth hospital | 12/07/16 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 01/02/17 |
| grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse | 01/02/17 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 01/02/17 |
| grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse | 01/02/17 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 03/03/20 |
| Salmon lascivious regret | 01/02/17 |
| Aphrodisiac Wine Fanboi | 01/16/17 |
| grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse | 01/20/17 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 01/20/17 |
| grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse | 01/23/17 |
| honey-headed death wish house | 01/23/17 |
| grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse | 01/23/17 |
| abnormal preventive strike step-uncle's house | 01/23/17 |
| honey-headed death wish house | 01/23/17 |
| grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse | 01/23/17 |
| grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse | 01/25/17 |
| grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse | 01/26/17 |
| grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse | 02/06/17 |
| grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse | 02/13/17 |
| grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse | 02/27/17 |
| grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse | 05/03/17 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 05/03/17 |
| grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse | 09/21/17 |
| Navy irradiated prole | 01/23/17 |
| Cyan Lay | 02/27/17 |
| Dashing Dopamine | 03/22/17 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 04/17/17 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 05/08/17 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 06/20/17 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 08/10/17 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 10/15/17 |
| Aphrodisiac Wine Fanboi | 10/15/17 |
| confused address queen of the night | 10/15/17 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 11/06/17 |
| saffron fiercely-loyal macaca reading party | 11/06/17 |
| ebony abode | 11/08/17 |
| Walnut state | 11/08/17 |
| Roast Beef Wagecucks | 11/13/17 |
| Aphrodisiac Wine Fanboi | 12/18/17 |
| scarlet associate meetinghouse | 12/18/17 |
| Aphrodisiac Wine Fanboi | 12/18/17 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 01/30/18 |
| Salmon lascivious regret | 06/01/18 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 07/18/18 |
| Aphrodisiac Wine Fanboi | 07/19/18 |
| Burgundy headpube resort | 09/20/18 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 09/25/18 |
| odious library | 10/06/18 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 10/06/18 |
| Salmon lascivious regret | 10/25/18 |
| racy hell fat ankles | 10/25/18 |
| Magical alpha | 11/05/18 |
| Salmon lascivious regret | 11/05/18 |
| Dashing Dopamine | 11/05/18 |
| Salmon lascivious regret | 11/05/18 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 01/08/19 |
| Indecent range pozpig | 02/23/19 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 03/13/19 |
| Magical alpha | 06/24/19 |
| federal rigor | 06/24/19 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 11/18/19 |
| Cyan Lay | 02/12/20 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 02/12/20 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 03/24/20 |
| fortuitous meteor | 03/24/20 |
| Aromatic ticket booth | 04/04/20 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 04/26/20 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 05/13/20 |
| Aromatic ticket booth | 06/05/20 |
| Domesticated Shrine Stain | 06/05/20 |
| Aromatic ticket booth | 09/09/20 |
| Cyan Lay | 09/09/20 |
| know-it-all idiot | 09/09/20 |
| Rose coiffed indirect expression | 09/12/20 |
| Transparent Boistinker | 09/24/20 |
| federal rigor | 10/09/20 |
| Aphrodisiac Wine Fanboi | 10/10/20 |
| Brass legend | 10/22/20 |
| massive hissy fit | 10/22/20 |
| Slate box office | 10/22/20 |
| Slate box office | 10/22/20 |
| canary old irish cottage | 03/23/22 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 10/27/20 |
| Dashing Dopamine | 10/27/20 |
| federal rigor | 10/30/20 |
| Aphrodisiac Wine Fanboi | 11/03/20 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 03/22/22 |
| french spot | 03/23/22 |
| twisted casino doctorate | 03/23/22 |
| center antidepressant drug | 03/23/22 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 07/25/22 |
| know-it-all idiot | 07/25/22 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 10/23/22 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 11/16/22 |
| provocative copper boiling water | 04/25/23 |
| Blathering bistre puppy plaza | 04/25/23 |
| Transparent Boistinker | 04/29/23 |
| Mewling persian dilemma | 05/28/23 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 02/22/24 |
| Transparent Boistinker | 02/23/24 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 05/23/24 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 08/26/24 |
| Transparent Boistinker | 09/13/24 |
| know-it-all idiot | 09/13/24 |
| Transparent Boistinker | 10/18/24 |
| Fluffy main people | 10/11/24 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 11/06/24 |
| swollen faggotry | 03/04/25 |
| swollen faggotry | 03/04/25 |
| Burgundy headpube resort | 03/04/25 |
| Fluffy main people | 03/04/25 |
| Indigo laser beams | 03/04/25 |
| trailer park | 03/05/25 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 03/07/25 |
| Submissive theatre | 03/07/25 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 03/08/25 |
| Locus Kitty Cat | 03/08/25 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 03/08/25 |
| Navy irradiated prole | 02/18/26 |
| Zombie-like impressive set | 05/15/26 |
| Cobalt naked chad base | 05/17/26 |
| coalition of rabbis | 08/11/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: swashbuckling new version round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Dashing Dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Salmon lascivious regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Salmon lascivious regret another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: vivacious sadistic den 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: Narrow-minded metal church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: fighting fuchsia location french chef "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: know-it-all idiot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: odious library 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Navy irradiated prole 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Startled field Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: lemon market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: Primrose supple sex offender roommate FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: twinkling double fault public bath Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: idiotic 180 azn Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: sickened magenta national cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: Heady office famous landscape painting Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: aggressive garrison Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Hideous coffee pot institution Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: stimulating talking theater mad cow disease March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Claret hairraiser chapel Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: twinkling double fault public bath OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: twinkling double fault public bath And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: bright marvelous toilet seat background story 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Vibrant school cafeteria fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: beady-eyed outnumbered feces hall I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: Talented Awkward Community Account 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: rusted haunted graveyard deer antler February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Black messiness tanning salon You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: stirring house-broken mediation water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Magical alpha Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29677869) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Appetizing Rough-skinned Blood Rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: provocative copper boiling water http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Aphrodisiac Wine Fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: geriatric kitchen sneaky criminal Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Slate box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Cerebral effete gas station This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: Laughsome mother 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: seedy deep newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: milky knife Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Zombie-like impressive set Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: Thriller Useless Brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Dashing Dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Splenetic soul-stirring mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: drunken stag film 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Hideous coffee pot institution flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Magical alpha Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: Thriller Useless Brakes From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: titillating pistol An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Ocher Corner Striped Hyena 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: titillating pistol I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: Dashing Dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: titillating pistol Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Ocher Corner Striped Hyena No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Appetizing Rough-skinned Blood Rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: drunken stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: Thriller Useless Brakes http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: drunken stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Zombie-like impressive set http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: Thriller Useless Brakes looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29677719) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: Magical alpha You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29677913) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: frozen piazza OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29877434) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM Author: up-to-no-good party of the first part PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29903568) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM Author: pearly circlehead friendly grandma The OP is XO at its peak brilliance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29903615) |
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this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
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Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: Navy irradiated prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29931637) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29960115) |
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Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#29976826) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30015799) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: Red athletic conference indian lodge yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30015891) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30065629) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: up-to-no-good party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30065970) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: Motley arrogant selfie brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30066291) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Zombie-like impressive set It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: twinkling double fault public bath March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30070601) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: Aphrodisiac Wine Fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30119676) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30119337) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: Multi-colored Native Gay Wizard http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30140474) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: Jade turdskin mad-dog skullcap Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30140513) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30144174) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: stirring house-broken mediation water buffalo jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30151942) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: Aphrodisiac Wine Fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30151965) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: odious library (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30151975) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Appetizing Rough-skinned Blood Rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31172540) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: Dashing Dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Zombie-like impressive set "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: Pink Masturbator lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30160689) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Pink Masturbator "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Pink Masturbator interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: Purple Floppy Rehab Voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30279158) |
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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30307876) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: Pungent Diverse Nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30310760) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: ruddy dysfunction theater stage I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30310807) |
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Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30335375) |
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Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30346848) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30353572) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: rambunctious ceo parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30353587) |
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Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: Useless maroon stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30378951) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: low-t rigpig Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: low-t rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Wine Fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: violent halford university holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30398720) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: Glittery obsidian international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30402170) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30405223) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: scarlet associate meetinghouse 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30405346) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Zombie-like impressive set Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: swollen faggotry Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: provocative copper boiling water LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Frum boyish weed whacker pit Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Blathering bistre puppy plaza This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: up-to-no-good party of the first part In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Blathering bistre puppy plaza cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: provocative copper boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Zombie-like impressive set http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Aromatic ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Appetizing Rough-skinned Blood Rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: scarlet associate meetinghouse 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Zombie-like impressive set http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: cocky avocado whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: fear-inspiring curious karate Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Contagious Disturbing Really Tough Guy Church Building Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Pink Masturbator amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: scarlet associate meetinghouse holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: galvanic overrated tank LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: scarlet associate meetinghouse 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: scarlet associate meetinghouse lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Pink Masturbator ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: balding toaster Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Disrespectful Opaque Therapy September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: racy hell fat ankles September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Salmon lascivious regret god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Cyan Lay XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Burgundy headpube resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Exhilarant Angry Orchestra Pit Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Exhilarant Angry Orchestra Pit Wrinkle The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: scarlet associate meetinghouse let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Zombie-like impressive set http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: scarlet associate meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: twinkling double fault public bath This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Comical anal temple goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Mewling persian dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Pink Masturbator http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: balding toaster (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: scarlet associate meetinghouse 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: ruddy dysfunction theater stage This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: Purple Floppy Rehab Voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: honey-headed death wish house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: scarlet associate meetinghouse hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Arousing Dog Poop Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: scarlet associate meetinghouse doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Mischievous cruise ship half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Pink Masturbator nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Contagious Disturbing Really Tough Guy Church Building close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Appetizing Rough-skinned Blood Rage Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Cyan Lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Ivory Volcanic Crater Senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: Talented Awkward Community Account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Pink Masturbator prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle erotic stock car potus You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Pink Masturbator true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Pink Masturbator ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: bipolar menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: impertinent white mood Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: nighttime hilarious lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: Exhilarant Angry Orchestra Pit Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: Razzle alcoholic people who are hurt trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Disrespectful Opaque Therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: Sienna generalized bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: provocative copper boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Cyan Lay GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: Razzle alcoholic people who are hurt trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Contagious Disturbing Really Tough Guy Church Building it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: swollen faggotry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: massive hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: fragrant plum ratface forum (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Razzmatazz bull headed school bbw (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Fluffy main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Electric unhinged marketing idea area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: shivering chest-beating hairy legs Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: dun business firm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: bat shit crazy vigorous sweet tailpipe 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: massive hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Appetizing Rough-skinned Blood Rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: provocative copper boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Blathering bistre puppy plaza this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: scarlet associate meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: Light excitant nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Adventurous adulterous hunting ground space (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: bateful nursing home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Startled field you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Splenetic soul-stirring mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: aquamarine wonderful crackhouse Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Salmon lascivious regret bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: cracking half-breed stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: provocative copper boiling water sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Pink Masturbator ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: frozen piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Exhilarant Angry Orchestra Pit Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Tripping gold factory reset button tattoo They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: exciting green site Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Razzmatazz bull headed school bbw (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Fluffy main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: Flatulent bisexual scourge upon the earth hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Mischievous cruise ship GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Passionate lilac telephone https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Salmon lascivious regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: Flatulent bisexual scourge upon the earth hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: provocative copper boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Salmon lascivious regret truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Wine Fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: honey-headed death wish house TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: abnormal preventive strike step-uncle's house I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: honey-headed death wish house it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: grizzly gaming laptop bawdyhouse https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Navy irradiated prole this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Cyan Lay One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Dashing Dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Wine Fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: confused address queen of the night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: provocative copper boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: saffron fiercely-loyal macaca reading party credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: ebony abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Walnut state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: Roast Beef Wagecucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Aphrodisiac Wine Fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: scarlet associate meetinghouse Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Wine Fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Salmon lascivious regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Zombie-like impressive set https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Aphrodisiac Wine Fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Burgundy headpube resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: odious library It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Salmon lascivious regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: racy hell fat ankles Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Magical alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Salmon lascivious regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Dashing Dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Salmon lascivious regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: Indecent range pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: provocative copper boiling water Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Magical alpha There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: federal rigor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Cyan Lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: provocative copper boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Aromatic ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: provocative copper boiling water https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Aromatic ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: Domesticated Shrine Stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Aromatic ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Cyan Lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: know-it-all idiot Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: Rose coiffed indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: Transparent Boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: federal rigor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Wine Fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: Brass legend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: massive hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Slate box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Slate box office https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: canary old irish cottage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Dashing Dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: federal rigor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Wine Fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: french spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: twisted casino doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: center antidepressant drug 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: know-it-all idiot A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: provocative copper boiling water Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: provocative copper boiling water https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Blathering bistre puppy plaza why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: Transparent Boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Mewling persian dilemma FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: Transparent Boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: Transparent Boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: know-it-all idiot One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: Transparent Boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Fluffy main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: swollen faggotry 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: swollen faggotry https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Burgundy headpube resort Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Fluffy main people The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: Indigo laser beams He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: trailer park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Zombie-like impressive set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: Submissive theatre 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Zombie-like impressive set "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: Locus Kitty Cat Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: Navy irradiated prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: Zombie-like impressive set ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
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Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: Cobalt naked chad base i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |
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Date: August 11th, 2026 2:24 AM Author: coalition of rabbis Weird how 99% of the internet disappeared one day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2:#50060136) |