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Iran war outcomes
| Charles Tyrwhitt Dad | 07/28/26 |
| Charles Tyrwhitt Dad | 07/28/26 |
| UhOh | 07/28/26 |
| Charles Tyrwhitt Dad | 07/28/26 |
| UhOh | 07/28/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: July 28th, 2026 2:33 PM Author: Charles Tyrwhitt Dad Am aware there's few left on here with two brain cells to rub together, so this is perhaps a test of the viability of xoxohth these days.
Is anyone else privately concerned about the Iran war stalemate and speculating the potential outcomes? In a way I'm impressed by most people worldwide to largely ignore it and get on with life, which is encouraging. But I can't see a good outcome for the Iranian mess as it seems to be either a major escalation comparable to Iraq, or effective defeat and an emboldened Iran that knows it controls the straight of Hormuz and can do whatever it wants. Either outcome has enormous implications, and none are good. And there's seemingly no other option in between. Except maybe a hail mary Iran and the US actually do agree to a deal and everyone slinks off and pretends the last five months didn't happen.
Funnily enough I think the hail mary option actually as a chance of happening. Low, but more than zero.
Any other thoughts? Yeah, I'm aware that two major Middle East incidents were triggered by GOP presidents. It does make me pause.
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Date: July 28th, 2026 4:13 PM Author: Charles Tyrwhitt Dad Guess xoxohth is really dead. Even scumbag loser bars have more intelligence than this place nowadays. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5887094&forum_id=2]#50030305) |
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Date: July 28th, 2026 4:16 PM Author: UhOh don't see how this ends well. if we back off and agree to their terms they're going to get rich tolling the strait and everyone will realize we're a paper tiger. and how can we possibly put terms on them? we're admitting that they can close the strait and there's nothing we can do about it. so they're going to start rebuilding their military and it will be back stronger than ever. they'll make nukes, pretty much whatever they want. even if the arabs build pipes to the suez they are just as vulnerable to drones as ships in hormuz. in sum, iran has an iron grip over the whole region. which means israel is fucked. they're going to want to false flag us into a land invasion. as much as i don't want a land invasion it feels like the only real option here, it's existential at this point if we want to maintain our standing in the world. otherwise we're about to get knocked down significantly. i don't see how the petrodollar stands up after we've shown we're incapable of protecting our gulf allies. the land invasion would be a disaster of a different kind, but at least there's a chance we "win". (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5887094&forum_id=2]#50030309) |
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Date: July 28th, 2026 4:37 PM Author: Charles Tyrwhitt Dad One option is to get consensus from all the leading powers in region and Europe to agree that the straight must be open, and any time Iranian drones attack a ship, we bomb a bunch of infrastructure in Iran / more targeted assassinations. It'll be clear we won't put boots on the ground or enforce regime change, but will the regime will get tired of being bombed and assassinated and figure out self preservation and status quo is better? One would think so. Hope so.
Will say only the British may be persuaded to join forces with Trump on these peacekeeping patrols but a post Trump presidency may see Euros warm up to it.
Have noticed deals between Iraq and Syria may see pipelines direct to the Med. |
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Date: July 28th, 2026 4:42 PM Author: UhOh as long as we're unwilling to go all-in boots on the ground iran is in the superior position. they can tolerate our bombings, we can't tolerate their strait shut down. so we're not going to bomb anything, we're just going to talk shit and pay them. and in the meantime they're going to build up their military and production capabilities. and what will anyone do about it? any bombing will immediately lead to a shut down. any threat of sanctions will immediately lead to a threat of a shut down. as long as the strait is necessary they are untouchable and they're going to use that time to make sure no one ever bombs them again. these alternative routes are going to take many years to create and that's plenty of time for iran to bulk up. hypothetically we get to a point where no one even needs hormuz anymore, but by then iran is rich, armed, and radical and still trying to wipe israel off the map and push the arabs away from us. all the new pipes/routes will be just as vulnerable as the strait was. iran says kick the americans out, stops selling in USD, or else we drone your pipes. and what are we going to do about it then? we'd be faced with the same option as now - a land invasion - but with a significantly stronger irgc.
alternatively, we walk away from the region altogether and let the chips fall. let the sunnis and jews figure it out. probable outcome is that israel is fucked, the petrodollar is done, and china moves in. we're done here as the hegemon, but between us, venezuela, mexico, and canada american energy is fine. we commandeer the western hemisphere, china the eastern. |