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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Infuriating brethren | 12/10/15 |
| Lake stock car windowlicker | 12/12/15 |
| Infuriating brethren | 01/02/17 |
| Supple Pungent Box Office | 01/06/16 |
| soul-stirring faggotry fat ankles | 01/06/16 |
| soul-stirring faggotry fat ankles | 06/05/16 |
| insane fantasy-prone plaza sneaky criminal | 03/26/16 |
| yellow contagious foreskin athletic conference | 01/02/17 |
| Awkward national mediation | 10/25/18 |
| massive knife | 12/10/15 |
| Rough-skinned elastic band trust fund | 12/10/15 |
| charcoal nursing home | 12/10/15 |
| onyx brunch messiness | 12/10/15 |
| talking pocket flask | 12/15/15 |
| Narrow-minded dull casino | 12/10/15 |
| motley rose codepig indian lodge | 12/10/15 |
| Soggy base | 12/10/15 |
| Hairraiser crotch rigpig | 12/11/15 |
| Olive theater stage place of business | 12/12/15 |
| Wonderful iridescent location | 12/16/15 |
| nofapping azure cruise ship tank | 01/04/16 |
| ungodly jade headpube | 11/09/16 |
| Infuriating brethren | 12/11/15 |
| Deep Associate Library | 12/11/15 |
| misanthropic round eye | 12/11/15 |
| Hairraiser crotch rigpig | 12/11/15 |
| Walnut ladyboy mad cow disease | 12/12/15 |
| Fear-inspiring locale | 01/25/16 |
| Big-titted home | 11/10/16 |
| Infuriating brethren | 12/12/15 |
| Chest-beating hominid field | 12/12/15 |
| cerebral lime turdskin | 12/12/15 |
| glittery pearl milk | 12/12/15 |
| well-lubricated sienna set | 12/15/15 |
| Drunken laser beams | 12/21/15 |
| Razzle idiotic internal respiration | 12/12/15 |
| navy stirring parlor affirmative action | 12/12/15 |
| Domesticated internet-worthy heaven | 12/12/15 |
| Maniacal azn | 12/12/15 |
| Galvanic wine cuckold boltzmann | 12/12/15 |
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| motley rose codepig indian lodge | 12/15/15 |
| motley rose codepig indian lodge | 12/16/15 |
| Multi-colored Carmine Depressive | 12/15/15 |
| passionate doctorate | 12/15/15 |
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| fiercely-loyal vivacious incel business firm | 12/15/15 |
| exhilarant mustard dopamine | 12/15/15 |
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| Infuriating brethren | 12/15/15 |
| Infuriating brethren | 12/15/15 |
| Infuriating brethren | 12/15/15 |
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| Infuriating brethren | 12/15/15 |
| pink thriller forum boistinker | 01/05/16 |
| Fear-inspiring locale | 01/25/16 |
| crusty godawful whorehouse | 12/17/16 |
| Hyperactive kink-friendly corn cake | 05/18/16 |
| indigo big generalized bond fortuitous meteor | 08/12/16 |
| Infuriating brethren | 11/09/16 |
| Aquamarine Sweet Tailpipe | 11/09/16 |
| titillating double fault | 11/09/16 |
| bright shivering jap resort | 10/22/20 |
| blue outnumbered garrison | 12/15/15 |
| aggressive locus | 12/16/15 |
| swashbuckling kitchen | 12/16/15 |
| arousing claret public bath | 12/16/15 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 12/16/15 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 12/17/15 |
| puce misunderstood friendly grandma | 12/18/15 |
| Supple Pungent Box Office | 01/06/16 |
| chestnut hairy legs | 12/18/15 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 12/21/15 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 12/21/15 |
| Drunken laser beams | 12/21/15 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 12/30/15 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 12/30/15 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 01/04/16 |
| nofapping azure cruise ship tank | 01/04/16 |
| Infuriating brethren | 01/05/16 |
| Fear-inspiring locale | 01/25/16 |
| puce misunderstood friendly grandma | 01/05/16 |
| dead university | 01/05/16 |
| cream kitty cat bawdyhouse | 01/05/16 |
| naked french chef | 01/05/16 |
| Sooty Dingle Berry | 01/05/16 |
| naked french chef | 01/05/16 |
| Supple Pungent Box Office | 01/06/16 |
| naked french chef | 01/06/16 |
| Sooty Dingle Berry | 01/05/16 |
| indigo big generalized bond fortuitous meteor | 01/06/16 |
| Drunken laser beams | 01/07/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 01/08/16 |
| Slippery chapel | 01/08/16 |
| Drunken laser beams | 01/08/16 |
| puce misunderstood friendly grandma | 01/09/16 |
| Drunken laser beams | 01/10/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 01/18/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 01/19/16 |
| puce misunderstood friendly grandma | 01/21/16 |
| Infuriating brethren | 01/25/16 |
| Cracking alcoholic menage pervert | 01/25/16 |
| Fear-inspiring locale | 01/25/16 |
| Cracking alcoholic menage pervert | 02/09/16 |
| Slippery chapel | 09/06/16 |
| Supple Pungent Box Office | 11/05/18 |
| lascivious frozen really tough guy philosopher-king | 01/29/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 02/01/16 |
| flirting shrine | 02/01/16 |
| Infuriating brethren | 02/01/16 |
| Infuriating brethren | 02/07/16 |
| dead university | 02/09/16 |
| Brilliant startled preventive strike area | 02/09/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 02/20/16 |
| Mauve hell | 02/20/16 |
| Hyperactive kink-friendly corn cake | 02/24/16 |
| Stubborn psychic spot | 02/24/16 |
| diverse keepsake machete cumskin | 02/27/16 |
| Multi-colored Carmine Depressive | 03/09/16 |
| Know-it-all 180 sanctuary hissy fit | 03/15/16 |
| charcoal nursing home | 03/15/16 |
| passionate doctorate | 03/16/16 |
| salmon unhinged national security agency bbw | 02/24/16 |
| Glassy abnormal shitlib | 02/24/16 |
| passionate doctorate | 07/21/16 |
| sable senate idiot | 02/24/16 |
| charcoal nursing home | 02/27/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 03/02/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 03/04/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 03/09/16 |
| dead university | 03/09/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 03/15/16 |
| Hyperactive kink-friendly corn cake | 03/15/16 |
| Rebellious Obsidian Roast Beef | 03/15/16 |
| effete haunting meetinghouse newt | 03/15/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 03/16/16 |
| motley rose codepig indian lodge | 03/16/16 |
| Aquamarine Sweet Tailpipe | 03/23/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 03/23/16 |
| Domesticated internet-worthy heaven | 03/26/16 |
| Beady-eyed Sandwich | 03/26/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 03/26/16 |
| pink thriller forum boistinker | 03/28/16 |
| Aquamarine Sweet Tailpipe | 03/28/16 |
| Rough-skinned elastic band trust fund | 03/28/16 |
| indigo big generalized bond fortuitous meteor | 08/12/16 |
| Supple Pungent Box Office | 11/05/18 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 03/28/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 03/29/16 |
| trip apoplectic coldplay fan tanning salon | 03/29/16 |
| trip apoplectic coldplay fan tanning salon | 03/29/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 03/29/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 03/29/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 04/01/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 04/04/16 |
| trip apoplectic coldplay fan tanning salon | 04/15/16 |
| Erotic Crackhouse | 04/15/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 04/19/16 |
| Drab Aphrodisiac Antidepressant Drug | 04/20/16 |
| vigorous gaping idea he suggested | 04/20/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 04/24/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 04/25/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 04/26/16 |
| provocative swollen trailer park liquid oxygen | 04/26/16 |
| Tan gay wizard | 04/30/16 |
| adulterous stain | 05/01/16 |
| adulterous stain | 11/07/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 05/02/16 |
| Aquamarine Sweet Tailpipe | 05/02/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 05/03/16 |
| judgmental greedy principal's office | 05/03/16 |
| bespoke juggernaut stead | 05/03/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 05/04/16 |
| Slippery chapel | 05/04/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 05/05/16 |
| Maniacal azn | 05/05/16 |
| Infuriating brethren | 05/05/16 |
| Glassy abnormal shitlib | 05/05/16 |
| Chest-beating hominid field | 05/18/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 05/18/16 |
| Hyperactive kink-friendly corn cake | 05/18/16 |
| Chest-beating hominid field | 05/18/16 |
| Infuriating brethren | 05/29/16 |
| Infuriating brethren | 06/20/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 06/29/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 07/14/16 |
| Magical hyperventilating stage | 07/15/16 |
| indigo big generalized bond fortuitous meteor | 07/15/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 07/17/16 |
| Slippery chapel | 07/17/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 07/21/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 07/22/16 |
| low-t legal warrant | 07/22/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle Orchid House Partner | 07/23/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 07/24/16 |
| saffron sickened circlehead | 07/25/16 |
| trip apoplectic coldplay fan tanning salon | 07/25/16 |
| Infuriating brethren | 07/27/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 08/05/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 08/09/16 |
| Infuriating brethren | 08/12/16 |
| Slippery chapel | 08/12/16 |
| Infuriating brethren | 08/12/16 |
| gold histrionic school cafeteria | 08/12/16 |
| Infuriating brethren | 08/30/16 |
| Slippery chapel | 08/30/16 |
| Slippery chapel | 09/06/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 09/13/16 |
| trip apoplectic coldplay fan tanning salon | 09/14/16 |
| Razzle idiotic internal respiration | 09/14/16 |
| Racy federal stage mad-dog skullcap | 09/15/16 |
| disturbing electric furnace blood rage | 09/15/16 |
| soul-stirring faggotry fat ankles | 09/15/16 |
| sapphire marketing idea | 09/15/16 |
| odious dragon | 09/15/16 |
| umber curious ratface | 09/19/16 |
| umber curious ratface | 09/19/16 |
| Slippery chapel | 09/27/16 |
| Infuriating brethren | 09/24/16 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 09/27/16 |
| Slippery chapel | 09/27/16 |
| motley rose codepig indian lodge | 09/27/16 |
| frisky irradiated theater | 10/08/16 |
| Lavender Doobsian Clown Hall | 07/29/24 |
| trip apoplectic coldplay fan tanning salon | 09/28/16 |
| Razzle idiotic internal respiration | 09/28/16 |
| Slippery chapel | 09/28/16 |
| vigorous gaping idea he suggested | 09/28/16 |
| Erotic Crackhouse | 09/28/16 |
| Pearly temple quadroon | 10/08/16 |
| Slippery chapel | 10/09/16 |
| Excitant point | 10/09/16 |
| Slippery chapel | 10/09/16 |
| arrogant magenta den | 10/09/16 |
| trip apoplectic coldplay fan tanning salon | 10/10/16 |
| saffron sickened circlehead | 10/30/16 |
| indigo big generalized bond fortuitous meteor | 11/01/16 |
| sapphire marketing idea | 11/01/16 |
| appetizing flesh station mental disorder | 11/02/16 |
| fiercely-loyal vivacious incel business firm | 11/02/16 |
| trip apoplectic coldplay fan tanning salon | 11/07/16 |
| Bull Headed Carnelian Feces Lodge | 11/08/16 |
| trip apoplectic coldplay fan tanning salon | 11/08/16 |
| Infuriating brethren | 11/08/16 |
| trip apoplectic coldplay fan tanning salon | 11/08/16 |
| floppy snowy center gunner | 11/08/16 |
| Laughsome insanely creepy organic girlfriend | 11/08/16 |
| flirting shrine | 11/08/16 |
| umber curious ratface | 11/08/16 |
| Infuriating brethren | 11/08/16 |
| exciting hospital | 11/09/16 |
| Racy federal stage mad-dog skullcap | 11/09/16 |
| opaque concupiscible state new version | 11/09/16 |
| Infuriating brethren | 11/09/16 |
| sapphire marketing idea | 11/09/16 |
| exciting hospital | 11/09/16 |
| saffron sickened circlehead | 11/09/16 |
| Maniacal azn | 11/09/16 |
| Gay charismatic hunting ground tattoo | 12/03/16 |
| Big-titted home | 12/07/16 |
| crusty godawful whorehouse | 12/17/16 |
| Demanding church | 10/11/24 |
| Fragrant vermilion nibblets skinny woman | 11/09/16 |
| Costumed site twinkling uncleanness | 11/09/16 |
| Anal Telephone Water Buffalo | 11/09/16 |
| useless stimulating market roommate | 11/09/16 |
| Gay charismatic hunting ground tattoo | 11/09/16 |
| indigo big generalized bond fortuitous meteor | 11/09/16 |
| Infuriating brethren | 11/09/16 |
| Chest-beating hominid field | 11/09/16 |
| Slippery chapel | 11/09/16 |
| Fluffy self-centered goal in life | 11/09/16 |
| Infuriating brethren | 11/09/16 |
| Silver bearded theatre party of the first part | 11/09/16 |
| comical abode | 11/09/16 |
| Infuriating brethren | 11/09/16 |
| onyx brunch messiness | 11/09/16 |
| chestnut hairy legs | 11/10/16 |
| Cracking alcoholic menage pervert | 11/10/16 |
| soul-stirring faggotry fat ankles | 11/10/16 |
| crystalline abusive institution | 11/10/16 |
| Infuriating brethren | 11/10/16 |
| trip apoplectic coldplay fan tanning salon | 11/10/16 |
| Mauve hell | 11/10/16 |
| umber curious ratface | 11/14/16 |
| marvelous corner reading party | 11/14/16 |
| boyish slap-happy address scourge upon the earth | 12/04/16 |
| crusty godawful whorehouse | 12/17/16 |
| Demanding church | 10/11/24 |
| Infuriating brethren | 11/25/16 |
| splenetic orchestra pit candlestick maker | 12/03/16 |
| arrogant magenta den | 12/04/16 |
| Purple frum potus pit | 12/07/16 |
| soul-stirring faggotry fat ankles | 12/07/16 |
| splenetic orchestra pit candlestick maker | 12/07/16 |
| Infuriating brethren | 01/02/17 |
| Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol | 01/02/17 |
| Infuriating brethren | 01/02/17 |
| Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol | 01/02/17 |
| Infuriating brethren | 03/03/20 |
| soul-stirring faggotry fat ankles | 01/02/17 |
| Aquamarine Sweet Tailpipe | 01/16/17 |
| Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol | 01/20/17 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 01/20/17 |
| Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol | 01/23/17 |
| Pearly temple quadroon | 01/23/17 |
| Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol | 01/23/17 |
| Green boiling water | 01/23/17 |
| Pearly temple quadroon | 01/23/17 |
| Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol | 01/23/17 |
| Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol | 01/25/17 |
| Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol | 01/26/17 |
| Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol | 02/06/17 |
| Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol | 02/13/17 |
| Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol | 02/27/17 |
| Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol | 05/03/17 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 05/03/17 |
| Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol | 09/21/17 |
| charcoal nursing home | 01/23/17 |
| sapphire marketing idea | 02/27/17 |
| Supple Pungent Box Office | 03/22/17 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 04/17/17 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 05/08/17 |
| Infuriating brethren | 06/20/17 |
| Infuriating brethren | 08/10/17 |
| Infuriating brethren | 10/15/17 |
| Aquamarine Sweet Tailpipe | 10/15/17 |
| Bateful Wild Son Of Senegal Background Story | 10/15/17 |
| Infuriating brethren | 11/06/17 |
| Poppy piazza | 11/06/17 |
| Black Step-uncle's House | 11/08/17 |
| dashing buff lay haunted graveyard | 11/08/17 |
| Canary unholy ticket booth | 11/13/17 |
| Aquamarine Sweet Tailpipe | 12/18/17 |
| Slippery chapel | 12/18/17 |
| Aquamarine Sweet Tailpipe | 12/18/17 |
| Infuriating brethren | 01/30/18 |
| soul-stirring faggotry fat ankles | 06/01/18 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 07/18/18 |
| Aquamarine Sweet Tailpipe | 07/19/18 |
| odious dragon | 09/20/18 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 09/25/18 |
| Rough-skinned elastic band trust fund | 10/06/18 |
| Infuriating brethren | 10/06/18 |
| soul-stirring faggotry fat ankles | 10/25/18 |
| disturbing electric furnace blood rage | 10/25/18 |
| Fear-inspiring locale | 11/05/18 |
| soul-stirring faggotry fat ankles | 11/05/18 |
| Supple Pungent Box Office | 11/05/18 |
| soul-stirring faggotry fat ankles | 11/05/18 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 01/08/19 |
| Dun Multi-billionaire Gas Station | 02/23/19 |
| Infuriating brethren | 03/13/19 |
| Fear-inspiring locale | 06/24/19 |
| Razzmatazz Crimson Church Building Karate | 06/24/19 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 11/18/19 |
| sapphire marketing idea | 02/12/20 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 02/12/20 |
| Infuriating brethren | 03/24/20 |
| Talented cobalt prole | 03/24/20 |
| Magical hyperventilating stage | 04/04/20 |
| Infuriating brethren | 04/26/20 |
| Infuriating brethren | 05/13/20 |
| Magical hyperventilating stage | 06/05/20 |
| vibrant ivory goyim genital piercing | 06/05/20 |
| Magical hyperventilating stage | 09/09/20 |
| sapphire marketing idea | 09/09/20 |
| massive knife | 09/09/20 |
| spectacular tripping puppy main people | 09/12/20 |
| overrated turquoise rehab sex offender | 09/24/20 |
| Razzmatazz Crimson Church Building Karate | 10/09/20 |
| Aquamarine Sweet Tailpipe | 10/10/20 |
| Mind-boggling office cuckoldry | 10/22/20 |
| Gay charismatic hunting ground tattoo | 10/22/20 |
| bright shivering jap resort | 10/22/20 |
| bright shivering jap resort | 10/22/20 |
| gaped flushed dilemma | 03/23/22 |
| Infuriating brethren | 10/27/20 |
| Supple Pungent Box Office | 10/27/20 |
| Razzmatazz Crimson Church Building Karate | 10/30/20 |
| Aquamarine Sweet Tailpipe | 11/03/20 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 03/22/22 |
| Ultramarine nubile selfie | 03/23/22 |
| heady ebony coffee pot property | 03/23/22 |
| cowardly aromatic filthpig stag film | 03/23/22 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 07/25/22 |
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| spruce house-broken black woman school | 10/23/22 |
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| Infuriating brethren | 04/25/23 |
| Chest-beating hominid field | 04/25/23 |
| overrated turquoise rehab sex offender | 04/29/23 |
| Lavender Doobsian Clown Hall | 05/28/23 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 02/22/24 |
| overrated turquoise rehab sex offender | 02/23/24 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 05/23/24 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 08/26/24 |
| overrated turquoise rehab sex offender | 09/13/24 |
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| overrated turquoise rehab sex offender | 10/18/24 |
| Demanding church | 10/11/24 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 11/06/24 |
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| odious dragon | 03/04/25 |
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| spruce house-broken black woman school | 03/07/25 |
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| spruce house-broken black woman school | 03/08/25 |
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| spruce house-broken black woman school | 03/08/25 |
| charcoal nursing home | 02/18/26 |
| spruce house-broken black woman school | 05/15/26 |
| chrome confused wrinkle | 05/17/26 |
| coalition of rabbis | 08/11/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Infuriating brethren December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Lake stock car windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Infuriating brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Supple Pungent Box Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: soul-stirring faggotry fat ankles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: soul-stirring faggotry fat ankles another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: insane fantasy-prone plaza sneaky criminal 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: yellow contagious foreskin athletic conference (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: Awkward national mediation "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: massive knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: onyx brunch messiness Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: talking pocket flask (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: Narrow-minded dull casino FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: motley rose codepig indian lodge Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Soggy base Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Hairraiser crotch rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: Olive theater stage place of business Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Wonderful iridescent location Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: nofapping azure cruise ship tank Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: ungodly jade headpube (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: Infuriating brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: Hairraiser crotch rigpig November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Walnut ladyboy mad cow disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29364617) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Fear-inspiring locale Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29677834) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: Infuriating brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Chest-beating hominid field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29364621) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: glittery pearl milk March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: well-lubricated sienna set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: Drunken laser beams 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Galvanic wine cuckold boltzmann Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: electric macaca pisswyrm Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: motley rose codepig indian lodge OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: motley rose codepig indian lodge And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: Multi-colored Carmine Depressive 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: passionate doctorate fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: impertinent native I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: fiercely-loyal vivacious incel business firm 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: exhilarant mustard dopamine February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: adventurous toilet seat You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Infuriating brethren Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Infuriating brethren http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Infuriating brethren http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Infuriating brethren http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: Infuriating brethren http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: pink thriller forum boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Fear-inspiring locale Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: crusty godawful whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: Hyperactive kink-friendly corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: indigo big generalized bond fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Infuriating brethren http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Aquamarine Sweet Tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: titillating double fault Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: bright shivering jap resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: blue outnumbered garrison This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: aggressive locus 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: swashbuckling kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: arousing claret public bath Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: puce misunderstood friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Supple Pungent Box Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: chestnut hairy legs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Drunken laser beams 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: nofapping azure cruise ship tank flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: Infuriating brethren ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Fear-inspiring locale Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: puce misunderstood friendly grandma From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: dead university 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: cream kitty cat bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: naked french chef An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Sooty Dingle Berry 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: naked french chef I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: Supple Pungent Box Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: naked french chef Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Sooty Dingle Berry No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: indigo big generalized bond fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Drunken laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Slippery chapel 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Drunken laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: puce misunderstood friendly grandma http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Drunken laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: puce misunderstood friendly grandma looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: Supple Pungent Box Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: trip apoplectic coldplay fan tanning salon interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: adulterous stain Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Chest-beating hominid field This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Hyperactive kink-friendly corn cake In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Chest-beating hominid field cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: Infuriating brethren lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Infuriating brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Magical hyperventilating stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: indigo big generalized bond fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Slippery chapel 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: low-t legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle Orchid House Partner Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: saffron sickened circlehead Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: trip apoplectic coldplay fan tanning salon amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Infuriating brethren Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Infuriating brethren THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Slippery chapel holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Infuriating brethren I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: gold histrionic school cafeteria LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Infuriating brethren THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Slippery chapel 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Slippery chapel lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: trip apoplectic coldplay fan tanning salon ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Razzle idiotic internal respiration Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Racy federal stage mad-dog skullcap September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: disturbing electric furnace blood rage September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: soul-stirring faggotry fat ankles god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: sapphire marketing idea XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: odious dragon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: umber curious ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: umber curious ratface The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Slippery chapel let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Infuriating brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Slippery chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: motley rose codepig indian lodge This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: frisky irradiated theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Lavender Doobsian Clown Hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: trip apoplectic coldplay fan tanning salon http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Razzle idiotic internal respiration (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Slippery chapel 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: vigorous gaping idea he suggested This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: Erotic Crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: Pearly temple quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Slippery chapel hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Excitant point Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Slippery chapel doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: arrogant magenta den half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: trip apoplectic coldplay fan tanning salon nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: saffron sickened circlehead close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: indigo big generalized bond fortuitous meteor Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: sapphire marketing idea (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31777531) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: trip apoplectic coldplay fan tanning salon prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Bull Headed Carnelian Feces Lodge You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: trip apoplectic coldplay fan tanning salon true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Infuriating brethren ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Laughsome insanely creepy organic girlfriend Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Demanding church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: useless stimulating market roommate 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Gay charismatic hunting ground tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: indigo big generalized bond fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Infuriating brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Chest-beating hominid field this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Slippery chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: Fluffy self-centered goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Infuriating brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Silver bearded theatre party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: comical abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Infuriating brethren November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: onyx brunch messiness you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Cracking alcoholic menage pervert Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: soul-stirring faggotry fat ankles bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Infuriating brethren sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: marvelous corner reading party They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31907697) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: crusty godawful whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Demanding church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Infuriating brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: splenetic orchestra pit candlestick maker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: arrogant magenta den GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Purple frum potus pit https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: soul-stirring faggotry fat ankles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: splenetic orchestra pit candlestick maker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Infuriating brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Infuriating brethren ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Infuriating brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: soul-stirring faggotry fat ankles truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Aquamarine Sweet Tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Pearly temple quadroon TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: Green boiling water I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: Pearly temple quadroon it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Mewling painfully honest parlour pistol https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: charcoal nursing home this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: sapphire marketing idea One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Supple Pungent Box Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Infuriating brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Infuriating brethren What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Infuriating brethren https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Aquamarine Sweet Tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Bateful Wild Son Of Senegal Background Story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Infuriating brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Poppy piazza credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Black Step-uncle's House (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: dashing buff lay haunted graveyard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: Canary unholy ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Aquamarine Sweet Tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Slippery chapel Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Aquamarine Sweet Tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Infuriating brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: soul-stirring faggotry fat ankles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Aquamarine Sweet Tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: odious dragon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Rough-skinned elastic band trust fund It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Infuriating brethren lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: soul-stirring faggotry fat ankles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: disturbing electric furnace blood rage Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Fear-inspiring locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Supple Pungent Box Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: soul-stirring faggotry fat ankles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: Dun Multi-billionaire Gas Station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Infuriating brethren Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Fear-inspiring locale There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#38431500) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Infuriating brethren https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Infuriating brethren Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Infuriating brethren https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#46237455) |
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This still hurts to read |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: massive knife One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: overrated turquoise rehab sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Demanding church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: Maniacal azn 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: Maniacal azn https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: odious dragon Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Demanding church The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: alpha range He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: red old irish cottage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: angry famous landscape painting 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: aqua space digit ratio Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: charcoal nursing home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: spruce house-broken black woman school ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
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Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: chrome confused wrinkle i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |
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Date: August 11th, 2026 2:24 AM Author: coalition of rabbis Weird how 99% of the internet disappeared one day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2]#50060136) |