The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Big Background Story | 12/10/15 |
| Territorial fluffy step-uncle's house | 12/12/15 |
| Big Background Story | 01/02/17 |
| supple opaque pocket flask clown | 01/06/16 |
| Misunderstood Swashbuckling Whorehouse | 01/06/16 |
| Misunderstood Swashbuckling Whorehouse | 06/05/16 |
| Insecure newt | 03/26/16 |
| painfully honest beady-eyed office boltzmann | 01/02/17 |
| blue vibrant trailer park genital piercing | 10/25/18 |
| Excitant Chest-beating Field | 12/10/15 |
| floppy obsidian crackhouse | 12/10/15 |
| cracking locale | 12/10/15 |
| Fuchsia Fanboi Boistinker | 12/10/15 |
| gold incel | 12/15/15 |
| hideous soul-stirring center telephone | 12/10/15 |
| Rebellious Selfie Cruise Ship | 12/10/15 |
| Laughsome Deep Reading Party Institution | 12/10/15 |
| Exhilarant dysfunction | 12/11/15 |
| dashing iridescent church building | 12/12/15 |
| Stimulating knife | 12/16/15 |
| Plum church | 01/04/16 |
| Talented indirect expression | 11/09/16 |
| Big Background Story | 12/11/15 |
| pontificating garrison gaping | 12/11/15 |
| Mauve Startling Coldplay Fan | 12/11/15 |
| Exhilarant dysfunction | 12/11/15 |
| diverse business firm | 12/12/15 |
| up-to-no-good odious prole dilemma | 01/25/16 |
| Buck-toothed therapy location | 11/10/16 |
| Big Background Story | 12/12/15 |
| Curious mildly autistic resort | 12/12/15 |
| Glittery scourge upon the earth | 12/12/15 |
| Fragrant Big-titted Den Fortuitous Meteor | 12/12/15 |
| Copper lay gunner | 12/15/15 |
| comical sick parlour | 12/21/15 |
| stirring harsh immigrant address | 12/12/15 |
| Autistic house mother | 12/12/15 |
| Galvanic ticket booth | 12/12/15 |
| electric maniacal feces nursing home | 12/12/15 |
| burgundy windowlicker | 12/12/15 |
| Multi-colored antidepressant drug | 12/12/15 |
| Rebellious Selfie Cruise Ship | 12/15/15 |
| Rebellious Selfie Cruise Ship | 12/16/15 |
| carnelian marvelous mad cow disease range | 12/15/15 |
| Flesh federal pozpig | 12/15/15 |
| slippery spot | 12/15/15 |
| Crimson Aromatic Friendly Grandma Principal's Office | 12/15/15 |
| Greedy razzmatazz shrine mediation | 12/15/15 |
| salmon bat shit crazy site | 12/15/15 |
| Big Background Story | 12/15/15 |
| Big Background Story | 12/15/15 |
| Big Background Story | 12/15/15 |
| Big Background Story | 12/15/15 |
| Big Background Story | 12/15/15 |
| Lascivious fishy parlor | 01/05/16 |
| up-to-no-good odious prole dilemma | 01/25/16 |
| olive infuriating sanctuary blood rage | 12/17/16 |
| french histrionic school | 05/18/16 |
| Hilarious irradiated temple striped hyena | 08/12/16 |
| Big Background Story | 11/09/16 |
| Arousing space police squad | 11/09/16 |
| Mind-boggling School Cafeteria Cuck | 11/09/16 |
| adulterous bisexual property round eye | 10/22/20 |
| Nighttime orchestra pit mad-dog skullcap | 12/15/15 |
| Smoky Public Bath Messiness | 12/16/15 |
| wine stag film organic girlfriend | 12/16/15 |
| Puce Razzle-dazzle Hominid Faggot Firefighter | 12/16/15 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 12/16/15 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 12/17/15 |
| Vermilion Motley Lodge Double Fault | 12/18/15 |
| supple opaque pocket flask clown | 01/06/16 |
| Provocative low-t area | 12/18/15 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 12/21/15 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 12/21/15 |
| comical sick parlour | 12/21/15 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 12/30/15 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 12/30/15 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 01/04/16 |
| Plum church | 01/04/16 |
| Big Background Story | 01/05/16 |
| up-to-no-good odious prole dilemma | 01/25/16 |
| Vermilion Motley Lodge Double Fault | 01/05/16 |
| hyperventilating shaky turdskin ceo | 01/05/16 |
| Submissive theatre | 01/05/16 |
| naked green abode | 01/05/16 |
| cream hell | 01/05/16 |
| naked green abode | 01/05/16 |
| supple opaque pocket flask clown | 01/06/16 |
| naked green abode | 01/06/16 |
| cream hell | 01/05/16 |
| Hilarious irradiated temple striped hyena | 01/06/16 |
| comical sick parlour | 01/07/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 01/08/16 |
| Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate | 01/08/16 |
| comical sick parlour | 01/08/16 |
| Vermilion Motley Lodge Double Fault | 01/09/16 |
| comical sick parlour | 01/10/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 01/18/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 01/19/16 |
| Vermilion Motley Lodge Double Fault | 01/21/16 |
| Big Background Story | 01/25/16 |
| splenetic pisswyrm hospital | 01/25/16 |
| up-to-no-good odious prole dilemma | 01/25/16 |
| splenetic pisswyrm hospital | 02/09/16 |
| Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate | 09/06/16 |
| supple opaque pocket flask clown | 11/05/18 |
| Bright mischievous stage | 01/29/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 02/01/16 |
| Heady twinkling national | 02/01/16 |
| Big Background Story | 02/01/16 |
| Big Background Story | 02/07/16 |
| hyperventilating shaky turdskin ceo | 02/09/16 |
| Gay Potus | 02/09/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 02/20/16 |
| Indecent plaza son of senegal | 02/20/16 |
| french histrionic school | 02/24/16 |
| chrome hateful meetinghouse kitty cat | 02/24/16 |
| Fantasy-prone foreskin | 02/27/16 |
| carnelian marvelous mad cow disease range | 03/09/16 |
| Disgusting Sticky Gas Station Weed Whacker | 03/15/16 |
| cracking locale | 03/15/16 |
| Flesh federal pozpig | 03/16/16 |
| Gaped vigorous alpha | 02/24/16 |
| Charismatic Box Office Sound Barrier | 02/24/16 |
| Flesh federal pozpig | 07/21/16 |
| titillating impertinent market halford | 02/24/16 |
| cracking locale | 02/27/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 03/02/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 03/04/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 03/09/16 |
| hyperventilating shaky turdskin ceo | 03/09/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 03/15/16 |
| french histrionic school | 03/15/16 |
| Thriller thirsty casino black woman | 03/15/16 |
| aphrodisiac lilac voyeur | 03/15/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 03/16/16 |
| Rebellious Selfie Cruise Ship | 03/16/16 |
| Arousing space police squad | 03/23/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 03/23/16 |
| Galvanic ticket booth | 03/26/16 |
| Wonderful snowy codepig roast beef | 03/26/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 03/26/16 |
| Lascivious fishy parlor | 03/28/16 |
| Arousing space police squad | 03/28/16 |
| floppy obsidian crackhouse | 03/28/16 |
| Hilarious irradiated temple striped hyena | 08/12/16 |
| supple opaque pocket flask clown | 11/05/18 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 03/28/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 03/29/16 |
| Garnet heaven tank | 03/29/16 |
| Garnet heaven tank | 03/29/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 03/29/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 03/29/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 04/01/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 04/04/16 |
| Garnet heaven tank | 04/15/16 |
| Bateful Disrespectful Locus | 04/15/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 04/19/16 |
| magenta mental disorder | 04/20/16 |
| lime ratface bawdyhouse | 04/20/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 04/24/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 04/25/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 04/26/16 |
| Racy maize famous landscape painting | 04/26/16 |
| narrow-minded impressive state main people | 04/30/16 |
| embarrassed to the bone base ladyboy | 05/01/16 |
| embarrassed to the bone base ladyboy | 11/07/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 05/02/16 |
| Arousing space police squad | 05/02/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 05/03/16 |
| rambunctious idiotic theater stage | 05/03/16 |
| Aquamarine frozen headpube senate | 05/03/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 05/04/16 |
| Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate | 05/04/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 05/05/16 |
| electric maniacal feces nursing home | 05/05/16 |
| Big Background Story | 05/05/16 |
| Charismatic Box Office Sound Barrier | 05/05/16 |
| Curious mildly autistic resort | 05/18/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 05/18/16 |
| french histrionic school | 05/18/16 |
| Curious mildly autistic resort | 05/18/16 |
| Big Background Story | 05/29/16 |
| Big Background Story | 06/20/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 06/29/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 07/14/16 |
| hairless dun depressive tanning salon | 07/15/16 |
| Hilarious irradiated temple striped hyena | 07/15/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 07/17/16 |
| Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate | 07/17/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 07/21/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 07/22/16 |
| Very tactful cobalt water buffalo stead | 07/22/16 |
| brindle cuckold | 07/23/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 07/24/16 |
| trip kitchen | 07/25/16 |
| Garnet heaven tank | 07/25/16 |
| Big Background Story | 07/27/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 08/05/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 08/09/16 |
| Big Background Story | 08/12/16 |
| Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate | 08/12/16 |
| Big Background Story | 08/12/16 |
| Balding razzle piazza | 08/12/16 |
| Big Background Story | 08/30/16 |
| Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate | 08/30/16 |
| Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate | 09/06/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 09/13/16 |
| Garnet heaven tank | 09/14/16 |
| stirring harsh immigrant address | 09/14/16 |
| unhinged violent generalized bond | 09/15/16 |
| Insane university cumskin | 09/15/16 |
| Misunderstood Swashbuckling Whorehouse | 09/15/16 |
| Umber station internal respiration | 09/15/16 |
| seedy hairraiser indian lodge | 09/15/16 |
| Anal adventurous personal credit line | 09/19/16 |
| Anal adventurous personal credit line | 09/19/16 |
| Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate | 09/27/16 |
| Big Background Story | 09/24/16 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 09/27/16 |
| Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate | 09/27/16 |
| Rebellious Selfie Cruise Ship | 09/27/16 |
| Underhanded Gay Wizard | 10/08/16 |
| Disturbing contagious rigpig | 07/29/24 |
| Garnet heaven tank | 09/28/16 |
| stirring harsh immigrant address | 09/28/16 |
| Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate | 09/28/16 |
| lime ratface bawdyhouse | 09/28/16 |
| Bateful Disrespectful Locus | 09/28/16 |
| slap-happy boyish hall kitty | 10/08/16 |
| Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate | 10/09/16 |
| deranged chestnut forum | 10/09/16 |
| Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate | 10/09/16 |
| passionate turquoise becky home | 10/09/16 |
| Garnet heaven tank | 10/10/16 |
| trip kitchen | 10/30/16 |
| Hilarious irradiated temple striped hyena | 11/01/16 |
| Umber station internal respiration | 11/01/16 |
| vivacious stage | 11/02/16 |
| Crimson Aromatic Friendly Grandma Principal's Office | 11/02/16 |
| Garnet heaven tank | 11/07/16 |
| Concupiscible cheese-eating set | 11/08/16 |
| Garnet heaven tank | 11/08/16 |
| Big Background Story | 11/08/16 |
| Garnet heaven tank | 11/08/16 |
| Cerebral Wrinkle | 11/08/16 |
| yapping point | 11/08/16 |
| Heady twinkling national | 11/08/16 |
| Anal adventurous personal credit line | 11/08/16 |
| Big Background Story | 11/08/16 |
| useless brunch | 11/09/16 |
| unhinged violent generalized bond | 11/09/16 |
| Lake Appetizing Love Of Her Life Rigor | 11/09/16 |
| Big Background Story | 11/09/16 |
| Umber station internal respiration | 11/09/16 |
| useless brunch | 11/09/16 |
| trip kitchen | 11/09/16 |
| electric maniacal feces nursing home | 11/09/16 |
| Crusty primrose pistol | 12/03/16 |
| Buck-toothed therapy location | 12/07/16 |
| olive infuriating sanctuary blood rage | 12/17/16 |
| Godawful library quadroon | 10/11/24 |
| Learning Disabled Menage Multi-billionaire | 11/09/16 |
| Bistre beta pit brethren | 11/09/16 |
| 180 Affirmative Action Chapel | 11/09/16 |
| cruel-hearted spectacular native coffee pot | 11/09/16 |
| Crusty primrose pistol | 11/09/16 |
| Hilarious irradiated temple striped hyena | 11/09/16 |
| Big Background Story | 11/09/16 |
| Curious mildly autistic resort | 11/09/16 |
| Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate | 11/09/16 |
| arrogant international law enforcement agency | 11/09/16 |
| Big Background Story | 11/09/16 |
| chartreuse corner | 11/09/16 |
| Pervert Deer Antler | 11/09/16 |
| Big Background Story | 11/09/16 |
| Fuchsia Fanboi Boistinker | 11/09/16 |
| Provocative low-t area | 11/10/16 |
| splenetic pisswyrm hospital | 11/10/16 |
| Misunderstood Swashbuckling Whorehouse | 11/10/16 |
| toilet seat rehab | 11/10/16 |
| Big Background Story | 11/10/16 |
| Garnet heaven tank | 11/10/16 |
| Indecent plaza son of senegal | 11/10/16 |
| Anal adventurous personal credit line | 11/14/16 |
| roommate death wish | 11/14/16 |
| chocolate candlestick maker | 12/04/16 |
| olive infuriating sanctuary blood rage | 12/17/16 |
| Godawful library quadroon | 10/11/24 |
| Big Background Story | 11/25/16 |
| Aggressive goal in life | 12/03/16 |
| passionate turquoise becky home | 12/04/16 |
| mint theater electric furnace | 12/07/16 |
| Misunderstood Swashbuckling Whorehouse | 12/07/16 |
| Aggressive goal in life | 12/07/16 |
| Big Background Story | 01/02/17 |
| Red Hairy Legs Giraffe | 01/02/17 |
| Big Background Story | 01/02/17 |
| Red Hairy Legs Giraffe | 01/02/17 |
| Big Background Story | 03/03/20 |
| Misunderstood Swashbuckling Whorehouse | 01/02/17 |
| Arousing space police squad | 01/16/17 |
| Red Hairy Legs Giraffe | 01/20/17 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 01/20/17 |
| Red Hairy Legs Giraffe | 01/23/17 |
| slap-happy boyish hall kitty | 01/23/17 |
| Red Hairy Legs Giraffe | 01/23/17 |
| Judgmental Toaster | 01/23/17 |
| slap-happy boyish hall kitty | 01/23/17 |
| Red Hairy Legs Giraffe | 01/23/17 |
| Red Hairy Legs Giraffe | 01/25/17 |
| Red Hairy Legs Giraffe | 01/26/17 |
| Red Hairy Legs Giraffe | 02/06/17 |
| Red Hairy Legs Giraffe | 02/13/17 |
| Red Hairy Legs Giraffe | 02/27/17 |
| Red Hairy Legs Giraffe | 05/03/17 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 05/03/17 |
| Red Hairy Legs Giraffe | 09/21/17 |
| cracking locale | 01/23/17 |
| Umber station internal respiration | 02/27/17 |
| supple opaque pocket flask clown | 03/22/17 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 04/17/17 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 05/08/17 |
| Big Background Story | 06/20/17 |
| Big Background Story | 08/10/17 |
| Big Background Story | 10/15/17 |
| Arousing space police squad | 10/15/17 |
| Bespoke useless brakes | 10/15/17 |
| Big Background Story | 11/06/17 |
| Self-centered light sandwich | 11/06/17 |
| effete | 11/08/17 |
| nubile travel guidebook | 11/08/17 |
| elastic band | 11/13/17 |
| Arousing space police squad | 12/18/17 |
| Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate | 12/18/17 |
| Arousing space police squad | 12/18/17 |
| Big Background Story | 01/30/18 |
| Misunderstood Swashbuckling Whorehouse | 06/01/18 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 07/18/18 |
| Arousing space police squad | 07/19/18 |
| seedy hairraiser indian lodge | 09/20/18 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 09/25/18 |
| floppy obsidian crackhouse | 10/06/18 |
| Big Background Story | 10/06/18 |
| Misunderstood Swashbuckling Whorehouse | 10/25/18 |
| Insane university cumskin | 10/25/18 |
| up-to-no-good odious prole dilemma | 11/05/18 |
| Misunderstood Swashbuckling Whorehouse | 11/05/18 |
| supple opaque pocket flask clown | 11/05/18 |
| Misunderstood Swashbuckling Whorehouse | 11/05/18 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 01/08/19 |
| 02/23/19 |
| Big Background Story | 03/13/19 |
| up-to-no-good odious prole dilemma | 06/24/19 |
| frum persian bbw | 06/24/19 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 11/18/19 |
| Umber station internal respiration | 02/12/20 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 02/12/20 |
| Big Background Story | 03/24/20 |
| sapphire at-the-ready laser beams | 03/24/20 |
| hairless dun depressive tanning salon | 04/04/20 |
| Big Background Story | 04/26/20 |
| Big Background Story | 05/13/20 |
| hairless dun depressive tanning salon | 06/05/20 |
| jade azn | 06/05/20 |
| hairless dun depressive tanning salon | 09/09/20 |
| Umber station internal respiration | 09/09/20 |
| Excitant Chest-beating Field | 09/09/20 |
| tan idiot | 09/12/20 |
| Tripping | 09/24/20 |
| frum persian bbw | 10/09/20 |
| Arousing space police squad | 10/10/20 |
| demanding fighting | 10/22/20 |
| Crusty primrose pistol | 10/22/20 |
| adulterous bisexual property round eye | 10/22/20 |
| adulterous bisexual property round eye | 10/22/20 |
| stock car psychic | 03/23/22 |
| Big Background Story | 10/27/20 |
| supple opaque pocket flask clown | 10/27/20 |
| frum persian bbw | 10/30/20 |
| Arousing space police squad | 11/03/20 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 03/22/22 |
| Canary Regret | 03/23/22 |
| Cowardly Ocher Private Investor | 03/23/22 |
| buff | 03/23/22 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 07/25/22 |
| Excitant Chest-beating Field | 07/25/22 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 10/23/22 |
| Big Background Story | 11/16/22 |
| Big Background Story | 04/25/23 |
| Curious mildly autistic resort | 04/25/23 |
| Tripping | 04/29/23 |
| Disturbing contagious rigpig | 05/28/23 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 02/22/24 |
| Tripping | 02/23/24 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 05/23/24 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 08/26/24 |
| Tripping | 09/13/24 |
| Excitant Chest-beating Field | 09/13/24 |
| Tripping | 10/18/24 |
| Godawful library quadroon | 10/11/24 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 11/06/24 |
| electric maniacal feces nursing home | 03/04/25 |
| electric maniacal feces nursing home | 03/04/25 |
| seedy hairraiser indian lodge | 03/04/25 |
| Godawful library quadroon | 03/04/25 |
| Ebony milk | 03/04/25 |
| Outnumbered | 03/05/25 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 03/07/25 |
| duck-like hot stain | 03/07/25 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 03/08/25 |
| party of the first part new version | 03/08/25 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 03/08/25 |
| cracking locale | 02/18/26 |
| Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed | 05/15/26 |
| tattoo | 05/17/26 |
| Outnumbered | 08/11/26 |
| chopped manlet | 09/22/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Big Background Story December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
 |
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Territorial fluffy step-uncle's house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29364653) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Big Background Story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32284620) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: supple opaque pocket flask clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29532817) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Misunderstood Swashbuckling Whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29532846) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Misunderstood Swashbuckling Whorehouse another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30631018) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Insecure newt 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30144195) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: painfully honest beady-eyed office boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32284612) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: blue vibrant trailer park genital piercing "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Excitant Chest-beating Field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29351706) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: floppy obsidian crackhouse 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29351728) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: cracking locale 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29351742) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Fuchsia Fanboi Boistinker Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29351744) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: gold incel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29384172) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: hideous soul-stirring center telephone FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29351749) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Rebellious Selfie Cruise Ship Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29351753) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Laughsome Deep Reading Party Institution Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Exhilarant dysfunction (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29359932) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: dashing iridescent church building Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29364985) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Stimulating knife Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29392387) |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Plum church Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Talented indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31854764) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: Big Background Story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29359811) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: pontificating garrison gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29359818) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: Mauve Startling Coldplay Fan 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29359849) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: Exhilarant dysfunction November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29359926) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: diverse business firm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29364617) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: up-to-no-good odious prole dilemma Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29677834) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: Buck-toothed therapy location (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31866880) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: Big Background Story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29364607) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Curious mildly autistic resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29364621) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Glittery scourge upon the earth lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29364630) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: Fragrant Big-titted Den Fortuitous Meteor March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Copper lay gunner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29384155) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: comical sick parlour 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29429271) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: stirring harsh immigrant address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29364847) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: Autistic house mother lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29364873) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Galvanic ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29364887) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: electric maniacal feces nursing home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29364890) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: burgundy windowlicker Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29364896) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Multi-colored antidepressant drug Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29364933) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Rebellious Selfie Cruise Ship OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29383835) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Rebellious Selfie Cruise Ship And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: carnelian marvelous mad cow disease range 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29383898) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Flesh federal pozpig fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29383961) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: slippery spot I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29384107) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: Crimson Aromatic Friendly Grandma Principal's Office 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29384183) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Greedy razzmatazz shrine mediation February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: salmon bat shit crazy site You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29384207) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Big Background Story Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Big Background Story http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29384231) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Big Background Story http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29384237) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Big Background Story http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29384254) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: Big Background Story http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29384262) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Lascivious fishy parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29525662) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: up-to-no-good odious prole dilemma Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29677869) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: olive infuriating sanctuary blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32165246) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: french histrionic school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30504262) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Hilarious irradiated temple striped hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31172544) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Big Background Story http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31846270) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Arousing space police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31846325) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Mind-boggling School Cafeteria Cuck Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: adulterous bisexual property round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#41167037) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Nighttime orchestra pit mad-dog skullcap This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29384232) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: Smoky Public Bath Messiness 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29392396) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: wine stag film organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29392414) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: Puce Razzle-dazzle Hominid Faggot Firefighter Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29392427) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
|
Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: Vermilion Motley Lodge Double Fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29411300) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: supple opaque pocket flask clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29532836) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Provocative low-t area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29411342) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: comical sick parlour 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29429241) |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Plum church flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29519032) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: Big Background Story ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29525598) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: up-to-no-good odious prole dilemma Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29677890) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: Vermilion Motley Lodge Double Fault From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: hyperventilating shaky turdskin ceo 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29531444) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Submissive theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29531475) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: naked green abode An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29531481) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: cream hell 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29531500) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: naked green abode I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: supple opaque pocket flask clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29532843) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: naked green abode Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29535993) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: cream hell No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29531557) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Hilarious irradiated temple striped hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29532829) |
|
Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: comical sick parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29546163) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29551314) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: comical sick parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29554010) |
|
Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: Vermilion Motley Lodge Double Fault http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29559692) |
|
Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: comical sick parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29566112) |
|
Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29622950) |
|
Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
|
Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: Vermilion Motley Lodge Double Fault looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: Big Background Story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29677719) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: splenetic pisswyrm hospital 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29677863) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: up-to-no-good odious prole dilemma You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29677913) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: splenetic pisswyrm hospital No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29791782) |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate (2-time shitbama voter) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31345881) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: supple opaque pocket flask clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#37162047) |
|
Date: January 29th, 2016 4:25 PM Author: Bright mischievous stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29708433) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29727124) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:21 AM Author: Heady twinkling national (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29727197) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: Big Background Story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29732588) |
|
Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Big Background Story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29771453) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 8:59 PM Author: hyperventilating shaky turdskin ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29791735) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:00 PM Author: Gay Potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29791763) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29877406) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: Indecent plaza son of senegal OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29877434) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM Author: french histrionic school PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29903568) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM Author: chrome hateful meetinghouse kitty cat The OP is XO at its peak brilliance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29903615) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:57 PM Author: Fantasy-prone foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29931652) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:52 AM Author: carnelian marvelous mad cow disease range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30015868) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Disgusting Sticky Gas Station Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30066562) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:55 PM Author: cracking locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30066681) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:52 AM Author: Flesh federal pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30070592) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:18 AM Author: Gaped vigorous alpha hosting error... LOL
this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: Charismatic Box Office Sound Barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29904083) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: Flesh federal pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30987707) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: titillating impertinent market halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29904074) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: cracking locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29931637) |
|
Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29960115) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#29976826) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30015799) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: hyperventilating shaky turdskin ceo yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30015891) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30065629) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: french histrionic school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30065970) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: Thriller thirsty casino black woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30066291) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM Author: aphrodisiac lilac voyeur truly 180 thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30066549) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: Rebellious Selfie Cruise Ship March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30070601) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: Arousing space police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30119676) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30119337) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: Galvanic ticket booth http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30140474) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: Wonderful snowy codepig roast beef Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30140513) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30144174) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Lascivious fishy parlor jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30151942) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: Arousing space police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30151965) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: floppy obsidian crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30151975) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Hilarious irradiated temple striped hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31172540) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: supple opaque pocket flask clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#37162050) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: Garnet heaven tank lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30160689) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Garnet heaven tank "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30161654) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30163086) |
|
Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30183235) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Garnet heaven tank interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
|
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: Bateful Disrespectful Locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30279158) |
|
Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30307876) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: magenta mental disorder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30310760) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: lime ratface bawdyhouse I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30310807) |
|
Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30335375) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30346848) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30353572) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: Racy maize famous landscape painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30353587) |
|
Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: narrow-minded impressive state main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30378951) |
|
Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: embarrassed to the bone base ladyboy Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: embarrassed to the bone base ladyboy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31825048) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30392947) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: Arousing space police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30393360) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: rambunctious idiotic theater stage holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30398720) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: Aquamarine frozen headpube senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30402170) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30405223) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30405346) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: electric maniacal feces nursing home Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30412976) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: Big Background Story LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30412844) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Charismatic Box Office Sound Barrier Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30412994) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Curious mildly autistic resort This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30504267) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30504223) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: french histrionic school In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30504268) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Curious mildly autistic resort cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30504274) |
|
Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: Big Background Story lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30583536) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Big Background Story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30746085) |
|
Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
|
Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30924907) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: hairless dun depressive tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30933127) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Hilarious irradiated temple striped hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30933205) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30956384) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30956397) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30987656) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30999290) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: Very tactful cobalt water buffalo stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#30999301) |
|
Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: brindle cuckold Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31006876) |
|
Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31020363) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: trip kitchen Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31022942) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Garnet heaven tank amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31023351) |
|
Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Big Background Story Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31043518) |
|
Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31113817) |
|
Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Big Background Story THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31172565) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Big Background Story I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31172569) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Balding razzle piazza LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31172627) |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Big Background Story THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate 180 i want 2 believe |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31345879) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Garnet heaven tank ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31404088) |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: stirring harsh immigrant address Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31404101) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: unhinged violent generalized bond September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Insane university cumskin September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Misunderstood Swashbuckling Whorehouse god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31413930) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Umber station internal respiration XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31413938) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: seedy hairraiser indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31413954) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Anal adventurous personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31443744) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Anal adventurous personal credit line The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31443779) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31503555) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Big Background Story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31482152) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31503552) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31503554) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Rebellious Selfie Cruise Ship This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31503556) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Underhanded Gay Wizard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31592208) |
|
Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Disturbing contagious rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#47906632) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Garnet heaven tank http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: stirring harsh immigrant address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31511665) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31511673) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: lime ratface bawdyhouse This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31512070) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: Bateful Disrespectful Locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31513385) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: slap-happy boyish hall kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31592192) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31594952) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: deranged chestnut forum Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31594953) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31594954) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: passionate turquoise becky home half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31594956) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Garnet heaven tank nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
|
|
Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: trip kitchen close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31763265) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Hilarious irradiated temple striped hyena Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31772625) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Umber station internal respiration (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31777531) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: vivacious stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31782180) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: Crimson Aromatic Friendly Grandma Principal's Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31786832) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Garnet heaven tank prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31825019) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Concupiscible cheese-eating set You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31833310) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Garnet heaven tank true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31833315) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Big Background Story ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31839758) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Garnet heaven tank ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31844114) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: Cerebral Wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31842891) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: yapping point Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Heady twinkling national (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31843660) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: Anal adventurous personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31844292) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: Big Background Story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31844674) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: useless brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31846281) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: unhinged violent generalized bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31846326) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: Lake Appetizing Love Of Her Life Rigor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31846448) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: Big Background Story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31848552) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Umber station internal respiration GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31848608) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: useless brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31848693) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: trip kitchen it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31848755) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: electric maniacal feces nursing home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31848775) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: Crusty primrose pistol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32044462) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Buck-toothed therapy location (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32076291) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: olive infuriating sanctuary blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32165256) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Godawful library quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#48187313) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Learning Disabled Menage Multi-billionaire (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31848725) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Bistre beta pit brethren Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31849301) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: 180 Affirmative Action Chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31849447) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: cruel-hearted spectacular native coffee pot 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Crusty primrose pistol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31851790) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Hilarious irradiated temple striped hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31852918) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Big Background Story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31854576) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Curious mildly autistic resort this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31854584) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31855383) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: arrogant international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31855482) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Big Background Story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31863076) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: chartreuse corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31863082) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Pervert Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31863093) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Big Background Story November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Fuchsia Fanboi Boistinker you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31863503) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Provocative low-t area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31866924) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: splenetic pisswyrm hospital Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31868448) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Misunderstood Swashbuckling Whorehouse bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31866864) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: toilet seat rehab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31867005) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Big Background Story sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Garnet heaven tank ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31868235) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Indecent plaza son of senegal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31868543) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Anal adventurous personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31907692) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: roommate death wish They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31907697) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: chocolate candlestick maker Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32055646) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: olive infuriating sanctuary blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32165261) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Godawful library quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#48187317) |
|
Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Big Background Story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#31989410) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: Aggressive goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32044435) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: passionate turquoise becky home GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32055631) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: mint theater electric furnace https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32076268) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Misunderstood Swashbuckling Whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32076292) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: Aggressive goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32076345) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Big Background Story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32284600) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Red Hairy Legs Giraffe October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Big Background Story ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32284631) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Red Hairy Legs Giraffe ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
|
Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Big Background Story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#39686962) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Misunderstood Swashbuckling Whorehouse truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32284649) |
|
Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Arousing space police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32389095) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Red Hairy Legs Giraffe https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32412323) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32416346) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Red Hairy Legs Giraffe http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: slap-happy boyish hall kitty TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32441222) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Red Hairy Legs Giraffe It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32441238) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: Judgmental Toaster I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: slap-happy boyish hall kitty it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Red Hairy Legs Giraffe The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32441319) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Red Hairy Legs Giraffe https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32458110) |
|
Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Red Hairy Legs Giraffe https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32466804) |
|
Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Red Hairy Legs Giraffe https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32560776) |
|
Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Red Hairy Legs Giraffe https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32612572) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Red Hairy Legs Giraffe https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32714310) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Red Hairy Legs Giraffe https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#33221553) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#33222883) |
|
Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Red Hairy Legs Giraffe https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#34257967) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: cracking locale this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32441221) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Umber station internal respiration One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32714399) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: supple opaque pocket flask clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#32891711) |
|
Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#33097887) |
|
Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#33256991) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Big Background Story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#33605191) |
|
Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Big Background Story What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Big Background Story https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#34449074) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Arousing space police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#34449102) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Bespoke useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#34449138) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Big Background Story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#34615930) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Self-centered light sandwich credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#34615959) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: effete (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#34636123) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: nubile travel guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#34636459) |
|
Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: elastic band (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#34673088) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Arousing space police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#34948560) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Transparent Out-of-control Philosopher-king Karate Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#34948572) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Arousing space police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#34950581) |
|
Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Big Background Story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#35278621) |
|
Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Misunderstood Swashbuckling Whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#36168381) |
|
Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#36451135) |
|
Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Arousing space police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#36458802) |
|
Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: seedy hairraiser indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#36847087) |
|
Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: floppy obsidian crackhouse It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#36973680) |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Big Background Story lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#36973690) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Misunderstood Swashbuckling Whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#37090167) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: Insane university cumskin Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#37090191) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: up-to-no-good odious prole dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#37161974) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Misunderstood Swashbuckling Whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#37161955) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: supple opaque pocket flask clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#37162045) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Misunderstood Swashbuckling Whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#37167335) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#37553376) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#37833345) |
|
Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Big Background Story Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
|
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: up-to-no-good odious prole dilemma There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#38431500) |
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: frum persian bbw (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#38431431) |
|
Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#39135638) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Umber station internal respiration (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#39583415) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#39583624) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Big Background Story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#39849854) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: sapphire at-the-ready laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#39849877) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: hairless dun depressive tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#39938878) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Big Background Story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#40097972) |
|
Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Big Background Story https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: hairless dun depressive tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#40354730) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: jade azn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#40355911) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: hairless dun depressive tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#40896459) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Umber station internal respiration (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#40896523) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Excitant Chest-beating Field Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#40896526) |
|
Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: tan idiot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#40908695) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: Tripping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#40977795) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: frum persian bbw (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#41079968) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Arousing space police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#41088157) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: demanding fighting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#41166967) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: Crusty primrose pistol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#41166990) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: adulterous bisexual property round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#41167039) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: adulterous bisexual property round eye https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#41167053) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: stock car psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#44203011) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: Big Background Story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#41200021) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: supple opaque pocket flask clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#41202581) |
|
Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: frum persian bbw (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#41222868) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Arousing space police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#41261120) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#44196611) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Canary Regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#44202968) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: Cowardly Ocher Private Investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#44202984) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: buff 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#44203017) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#44911871) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Excitant Chest-beating Field A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#44911874) |
|
Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#45378008) |
|
Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Big Background Story Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Big Background Story https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#46237455) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Curious mildly autistic resort why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#46237460) |
|
Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: Tripping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#46252623) |
|
Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Disturbing contagious rigpig FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
|
Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#47428670) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: Tripping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#47430198) |
|
Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
|
Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#48010724) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: Tripping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#48087201) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Excitant Chest-beating Field One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#48087224) |
|
Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: Tripping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#48211967) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Godawful library quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#48187302) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#48296972) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: electric maniacal feces nursing home 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#48715841) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: electric maniacal feces nursing home https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#48715847) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: seedy hairraiser indian lodge Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Godawful library quadroon The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#48715863) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: Ebony milk He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#48715869) |
|
Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: Outnumbered (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#48716330) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#48724299) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: duck-like hot stain 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#48724306) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: party of the first part new version Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#48727216) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#48727802) |
|
Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: cracking locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#49679495) |
|
Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: Exciting sweet tailpipe half-breed ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
|
Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: tattoo i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |
|
Date: August 11th, 2026 2:24 AM Author: Outnumbered Weird how 99% of the internet disappeared one day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#50060136) |
|
Date: September 22nd, 2026 2:45 PM Author: chopped manlet (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Ã#50149615) |