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what year will the last human die?

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lime tattoo meetinghouse
  07/21/26
1945
Fishy Stage
  07/21/26
oh.
lime tattoo meetinghouse
  07/22/26
Never.
Stimulating citrine depressive
  07/22/26
this is obviously wrong. even if we don’t kill ourselv...
lime tattoo meetinghouse
  07/22/26
(lawyer)
Stimulating citrine depressive
  07/22/26
I feel like if humans manage to survive to 2200 (i.e. become...
Comical honey-headed clown church building
  07/22/26
as power/technology increases, extinction-level event capabi...
lime tattoo meetinghouse
  07/22/26
on the face of it this would appear to be true
Comical honey-headed clown church building
  07/22/26
AI says it will be late 23rd Century: Based on a linear dec...
bateful zippy lodge roommate
  07/22/26
declining fertility is great for the planet but terrible for...
Comical honey-headed clown church building
  07/22/26
this cannot be right
concupiscible orchestra pit place of business
  07/22/26


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Date: July 21st, 2026 12:21 PM
Author: lime tattoo meetinghouse



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2…id#50014248)



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Date: July 21st, 2026 12:22 PM
Author: Fishy Stage

1945

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2…id#50014252)



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Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:03 AM
Author: lime tattoo meetinghouse

oh.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2…id#50016476)



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Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:04 AM
Author: Stimulating citrine depressive

Never.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2…id#50016479)



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Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:13 AM
Author: lime tattoo meetinghouse

this is obviously wrong. even if we don’t kill ourselves or have some random, horrendous catastrophe befall the planet, in, say, a billion years there will still be no “humans” as our progeny will have evolved into something technically different.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2…id#50016491)



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Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:49 PM
Author: Stimulating citrine depressive

(lawyer)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2…id#50018355)



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Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:07 AM
Author: Comical honey-headed clown church building

I feel like if humans manage to survive to 2200 (i.e. become technologically advanced enough to solve climate change/resource limitations/post-AI society) then I'm not sure what would subsequently stop them from surviving multiple millennia

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2…id#50016485)



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Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:10 AM
Author: lime tattoo meetinghouse

as power/technology increases, extinction-level event capabilities become further democratized.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2…id#50016488)



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Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:17 AM
Author: Comical honey-headed clown church building

on the face of it this would appear to be true

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2…id#50016499)



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Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:22 AM
Author: bateful zippy lodge roommate

AI says it will be late 23rd Century:

Based on a linear decline of the global Total Fertility Rate (TFR), humanity will go completely extinct in approximately 244 to 264 years, with the global birth rate hitting zero in exactly 143.75 years.1. Calculate annual TFR declineThe starting fertility rate is \(2.3\).It drops \(0.4\) every \(25\) years.\(\text{Decline\ Rate}=\frac{0.4}{25}=0.016\text{\ per\ year}\)2. Determine zero birth yearWe define TFR over time \(t\):\(T(t)=2.3-0.016t\)Set fertility to zero:\(2.3-0.016t=0\)\(t=\frac{2.3}{0.016}=143.75\text{\ years}\)Global births completely stop at \(143.75\) years.3. Add remaining human lifespanExtinction occurs when the last person dies.The maximum human lifespan is \(100\) to \(120\) years.Add this lifespan to the zero birth year:Lower estimate: \(143.75 + 100 = 243.75 \text{ years}\)Upper estimate: \(143.75 + 120 = 263.75 \text{ years}\)Final Projection ✅Under these specific parameters, humanity will go completely extinct in 243.75 to 263.75 years from now.If you want to refine this projection, let me know if you would like to:Switch to an exponential decay model.Factor in shifting global life expectancies.Analyze regional variations in demographic trends.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2…id#50016509)



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Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:23 AM
Author: Comical honey-headed clown church building

declining fertility is great for the planet but terrible for capitalism

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2…id#50016512)



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Date: July 22nd, 2026 10:53 PM
Author: concupiscible orchestra pit place of business

this cannot be right

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5884737&forum_id=2…id#50018365)