The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 12/10/15 |
| arrogant boyish gunner | 12/12/15 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 01/02/17 |
| hairraiser property ape | 01/06/16 |
| onyx racy principal's office | 01/06/16 |
| onyx racy principal's office | 06/05/16 |
| Well-lubricated hospital | 03/26/16 |
| Buff motley police squad | 01/02/17 |
| curious mother | 10/25/18 |
| Electric orchestra pit people who are hurt | 12/10/15 |
| Stirring plaza wrinkle | 12/10/15 |
| transparent cracking sound barrier ladyboy | 12/10/15 |
| Chocolate immigrant | 12/10/15 |
| Flesh Cuckoldry Private Investor | 12/15/15 |
| low-t bbw cumskin | 12/10/15 |
| 180 rigor | 12/10/15 |
| vigorous school kitty cat | 12/10/15 |
| lavender fat ankles regret | 12/11/15 |
| Fluffy Hyperventilating Heaven Legal Warrant | 12/12/15 |
| Wonderful burgundy stage death wish | 12/16/15 |
| Drab sanctuary black woman | 01/04/16 |
| Soggy Snowy Jap | 11/09/16 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 12/11/15 |
| Trip church toilet seat | 12/11/15 |
| alcoholic supple karate | 12/11/15 |
| lavender fat ankles regret | 12/11/15 |
| beady-eyed incel | 12/12/15 |
| Excitant house | 01/25/16 |
| exciting base | 11/10/16 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 12/12/15 |
| Chartreuse idiot trump supporter | 12/12/15 |
| flatulent keepsake machete box office | 12/12/15 |
| Mint hominid ticket booth | 12/12/15 |
| plum gas station goal in life | 12/15/15 |
| sickened amber school cafeteria | 12/21/15 |
| big-titted famous landscape painting parlor | 12/12/15 |
| Dun university | 12/12/15 |
| Titillating massive philosopher-king | 12/12/15 |
| mentally impaired macaca kitchen | 12/12/15 |
| Vibrant infuriating locus | 12/12/15 |
| crimson home turdskin | 12/12/15 |
| 180 rigor | 12/15/15 |
| 180 rigor | 12/16/15 |
| Exhilarant Vengeful Elastic Band | 12/15/15 |
| bearded diverse center tank | 12/15/15 |
| bonkers arousing milk | 12/15/15 |
| apoplectic big telephone institution | 12/15/15 |
| Bull headed insanely creepy jewess | 12/15/15 |
| hideous space | 12/15/15 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 12/15/15 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 12/15/15 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 12/15/15 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 12/15/15 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 12/15/15 |
| Opaque meetinghouse mad cow disease | 01/05/16 |
| Excitant house | 01/25/16 |
| bateful preventive strike | 12/17/16 |
| Black Rebellious Native Roommate | 05/18/16 |
| Odious Bawdyhouse | 08/12/16 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 11/09/16 |
| green community account potus | 11/09/16 |
| doobsian field | 11/09/16 |
| Talking national depressive | 10/22/20 |
| Talented brindle pit mad-dog skullcap | 12/15/15 |
| salmon liquid oxygen | 12/16/15 |
| Heady location sweet tailpipe | 12/16/15 |
| copper forum gaping | 12/16/15 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 12/16/15 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 12/17/15 |
| saffron anal dilemma laser beams | 12/18/15 |
| hairraiser property ape | 01/06/16 |
| khaki prole deer antler | 12/18/15 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 12/21/15 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 12/21/15 |
| sickened amber school cafeteria | 12/21/15 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 12/30/15 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 12/30/15 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 01/04/16 |
| Drab sanctuary black woman | 01/04/16 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 01/05/16 |
| Excitant house | 01/25/16 |
| saffron anal dilemma laser beams | 01/05/16 |
| Vivacious carmine parlour patrolman | 01/05/16 |
| henna dead den | 01/05/16 |
| glittery sable roast beef dragon | 01/05/16 |
| dashing library | 01/05/16 |
| glittery sable roast beef dragon | 01/05/16 |
| hairraiser property ape | 01/06/16 |
| glittery sable roast beef dragon | 01/06/16 |
| dashing library | 01/05/16 |
| Odious Bawdyhouse | 01/06/16 |
| sickened amber school cafeteria | 01/07/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 01/08/16 |
| Dull marvelous azn dog poop | 01/08/16 |
| sickened amber school cafeteria | 01/08/16 |
| saffron anal dilemma laser beams | 01/09/16 |
| sickened amber school cafeteria | 01/10/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 01/18/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 01/19/16 |
| saffron anal dilemma laser beams | 01/21/16 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 01/25/16 |
| concupiscible orange main people abode | 01/25/16 |
| Excitant house | 01/25/16 |
| concupiscible orange main people abode | 02/09/16 |
| Dull marvelous azn dog poop | 09/06/16 |
| hairraiser property ape | 11/05/18 |
| Ebony quadroon | 01/29/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 02/01/16 |
| aggressive nursing home mediation | 02/01/16 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 02/01/16 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 02/07/16 |
| Vivacious carmine parlour patrolman | 02/09/16 |
| Topaz contagious office | 02/09/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 02/20/16 |
| fragrant glassy affirmative action | 02/20/16 |
| Black Rebellious Native Roommate | 02/24/16 |
| azure irradiated toaster address | 02/24/16 |
| stimulating voyeur juggernaut | 02/27/16 |
| Exhilarant Vengeful Elastic Band | 03/09/16 |
| jade giraffe therapy | 03/15/16 |
| transparent cracking sound barrier ladyboy | 03/15/16 |
| bearded diverse center tank | 03/16/16 |
| Flushed tripping shrine nowag | 02/24/16 |
| house-broken headpube | 02/24/16 |
| bearded diverse center tank | 07/21/16 |
| Galvanic grizzly stage selfie | 02/24/16 |
| transparent cracking sound barrier ladyboy | 02/27/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 03/02/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 03/04/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 03/09/16 |
| Vivacious carmine parlour patrolman | 03/09/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 03/15/16 |
| Black Rebellious Native Roommate | 03/15/16 |
| Cyan swashbuckling site | 03/15/16 |
| domesticated indigo theater travel guidebook | 03/15/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 03/16/16 |
| 180 rigor | 03/16/16 |
| green community account potus | 03/23/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 03/23/16 |
| Titillating massive philosopher-king | 03/26/16 |
| insane comical fortuitous meteor | 03/26/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 03/26/16 |
| Opaque meetinghouse mad cow disease | 03/28/16 |
| green community account potus | 03/28/16 |
| Stirring plaza wrinkle | 03/28/16 |
| Odious Bawdyhouse | 08/12/16 |
| hairraiser property ape | 11/05/18 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 03/28/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 03/29/16 |
| French Carnelian Lay Blood Rage | 03/29/16 |
| French Carnelian Lay Blood Rage | 03/29/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 03/29/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 03/29/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 04/01/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 04/04/16 |
| French Carnelian Lay Blood Rage | 04/15/16 |
| thriller temple hunting ground | 04/15/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 04/19/16 |
| aphrodisiac organic girlfriend | 04/20/16 |
| Flirting shitlib | 04/20/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 04/24/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 04/25/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 04/26/16 |
| gay ratface | 04/26/16 |
| lake buck-toothed nibblets old irish cottage | 04/30/16 |
| autistic dingle berry pocket flask | 05/01/16 |
| autistic dingle berry pocket flask | 11/07/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 05/02/16 |
| green community account potus | 05/02/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 05/03/16 |
| multi-colored church building half-breed | 05/03/16 |
| underhanded set digit ratio | 05/03/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 05/04/16 |
| Dull marvelous azn dog poop | 05/04/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 05/05/16 |
| mentally impaired macaca kitchen | 05/05/16 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 05/05/16 |
| house-broken headpube | 05/05/16 |
| Chartreuse idiot trump supporter | 05/18/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 05/18/16 |
| Black Rebellious Native Roommate | 05/18/16 |
| Chartreuse idiot trump supporter | 05/18/16 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 05/29/16 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 06/20/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 06/29/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 07/14/16 |
| Flickering coldplay fan | 07/15/16 |
| Odious Bawdyhouse | 07/15/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 07/17/16 |
| Dull marvelous azn dog poop | 07/17/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 07/21/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 07/22/16 |
| lemon metal ceo stag film | 07/22/16 |
| adventurous area | 07/23/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 07/24/16 |
| Turquoise business firm gay wizard | 07/25/16 |
| French Carnelian Lay Blood Rage | 07/25/16 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 07/27/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 08/05/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 08/09/16 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 08/12/16 |
| Dull marvelous azn dog poop | 08/12/16 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 08/12/16 |
| Cerebral amethyst puppy round eye | 08/12/16 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 08/30/16 |
| Dull marvelous azn dog poop | 08/30/16 |
| Dull marvelous azn dog poop | 09/06/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 09/13/16 |
| French Carnelian Lay Blood Rage | 09/14/16 |
| big-titted famous landscape painting parlor | 09/14/16 |
| Light Soul-stirring Goyim | 09/15/16 |
| cream godawful resort hairy legs | 09/15/16 |
| onyx racy principal's office | 09/15/16 |
| shivering razzle-dazzle stock car | 09/15/16 |
| aromatic range background story | 09/15/16 |
| Elite piazza sex offender | 09/19/16 |
| Elite piazza sex offender | 09/19/16 |
| Dull marvelous azn dog poop | 09/27/16 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 09/24/16 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 09/27/16 |
| Dull marvelous azn dog poop | 09/27/16 |
| 180 rigor | 09/27/16 |
| lascivious ultramarine clown | 10/08/16 |
| Nighttime theater stage | 07/29/24 |
| French Carnelian Lay Blood Rage | 09/28/16 |
| big-titted famous landscape painting parlor | 09/28/16 |
| Dull marvelous azn dog poop | 09/28/16 |
| Flirting shitlib | 09/28/16 |
| thriller temple hunting ground | 09/28/16 |
| Appetizing canary mood | 10/08/16 |
| Dull marvelous azn dog poop | 10/09/16 |
| seedy trailer park antidepressant drug | 10/09/16 |
| Dull marvelous azn dog poop | 10/09/16 |
| passionate rough-skinned mexican hall | 10/09/16 |
| French Carnelian Lay Blood Rage | 10/10/16 |
| Turquoise business firm gay wizard | 10/30/16 |
| Odious Bawdyhouse | 11/01/16 |
| shivering razzle-dazzle stock car | 11/01/16 |
| territorial pozpig | 11/02/16 |
| apoplectic big telephone institution | 11/02/16 |
| French Carnelian Lay Blood Rage | 11/07/16 |
| painfully honest bossy son of senegal | 11/08/16 |
| French Carnelian Lay Blood Rage | 11/08/16 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 11/08/16 |
| French Carnelian Lay Blood Rage | 11/08/16 |
| mind-boggling red crotch circlehead | 11/08/16 |
| Duck-like Cocky Becky | 11/08/16 |
| aggressive nursing home mediation | 11/08/16 |
| Elite piazza sex offender | 11/08/16 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 11/08/16 |
| at-the-ready public bath trust fund | 11/09/16 |
| Light Soul-stirring Goyim | 11/09/16 |
| floppy balding point | 11/09/16 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 11/09/16 |
| shivering razzle-dazzle stock car | 11/09/16 |
| at-the-ready public bath trust fund | 11/09/16 |
| Turquoise business firm gay wizard | 11/09/16 |
| mentally impaired macaca kitchen | 11/09/16 |
| navy cheese-eating psychic | 12/03/16 |
| exciting base | 12/07/16 |
| bateful preventive strike | 12/17/16 |
| narrow-minded masturbator boistinker | 10/11/24 |
| Translucent casino sandwich | 11/09/16 |
| Honey-headed Station | 11/09/16 |
| Crusty submissive love of her life messiness | 11/09/16 |
| claret athletic conference market | 11/09/16 |
| navy cheese-eating psychic | 11/09/16 |
| Odious Bawdyhouse | 11/09/16 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 11/09/16 |
| Chartreuse idiot trump supporter | 11/09/16 |
| Dull marvelous azn dog poop | 11/09/16 |
| Dark volcanic crater | 11/09/16 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 11/09/16 |
| shaky persian senate | 11/09/16 |
| Razzmatazz bistre skinny woman | 11/09/16 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 11/09/16 |
| Chocolate immigrant | 11/09/16 |
| khaki prole deer antler | 11/10/16 |
| concupiscible orange main people abode | 11/10/16 |
| onyx racy principal's office | 11/10/16 |
| Laughsome pistol corner | 11/10/16 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 11/10/16 |
| French Carnelian Lay Blood Rage | 11/10/16 |
| fragrant glassy affirmative action | 11/10/16 |
| Elite piazza sex offender | 11/14/16 |
| insecure razzle doctorate | 11/14/16 |
| provocative bespoke halford | 12/04/16 |
| bateful preventive strike | 12/17/16 |
| narrow-minded masturbator boistinker | 10/11/24 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 11/25/16 |
| Peach pervert state | 12/03/16 |
| passionate rough-skinned mexican hall | 12/04/16 |
| disgusting abusive theatre indirect expression | 12/07/16 |
| onyx racy principal's office | 12/07/16 |
| Peach pervert state | 12/07/16 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 01/02/17 |
| Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested | 01/02/17 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 01/02/17 |
| Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested | 01/02/17 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 03/03/20 |
| onyx racy principal's office | 01/02/17 |
| green community account potus | 01/16/17 |
| Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested | 01/20/17 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 01/20/17 |
| Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested | 01/23/17 |
| Appetizing canary mood | 01/23/17 |
| Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested | 01/23/17 |
| citrine chapel legend | 01/23/17 |
| Appetizing canary mood | 01/23/17 |
| Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested | 01/23/17 |
| Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested | 01/25/17 |
| Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested | 01/26/17 |
| Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested | 02/06/17 |
| Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested | 02/13/17 |
| Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested | 02/27/17 |
| Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested | 05/03/17 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 05/03/17 |
| Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested | 09/21/17 |
| transparent cracking sound barrier ladyboy | 01/23/17 |
| shivering razzle-dazzle stock car | 02/27/17 |
| hairraiser property ape | 03/22/17 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 04/17/17 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 05/08/17 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 06/20/17 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 08/10/17 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 10/15/17 |
| green community account potus | 10/15/17 |
| coral angry brunch twinkling uncleanness | 10/15/17 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 11/06/17 |
| histrionic overrated garrison marketing idea | 11/06/17 |
| Internet-worthy corn cake whorehouse | 11/08/17 |
| rusted cruel-hearted sneaky criminal dopamine | 11/08/17 |
| sexy wine genital piercing tanning salon | 11/13/17 |
| green community account potus | 12/18/17 |
| Dull marvelous azn dog poop | 12/18/17 |
| green community account potus | 12/18/17 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 01/30/18 |
| onyx racy principal's office | 06/01/18 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 07/18/18 |
| green community account potus | 07/19/18 |
| aromatic range background story | 09/20/18 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 09/25/18 |
| Stirring plaza wrinkle | 10/06/18 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 10/06/18 |
| onyx racy principal's office | 10/25/18 |
| cream godawful resort hairy legs | 10/25/18 |
| Excitant house | 11/05/18 |
| onyx racy principal's office | 11/05/18 |
| hairraiser property ape | 11/05/18 |
| onyx racy principal's office | 11/05/18 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 01/08/19 |
| jet associate | 02/23/19 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 03/13/19 |
| Excitant house | 06/24/19 |
| Charismatic Water Buffalo | 06/24/19 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 11/18/19 |
| shivering razzle-dazzle stock car | 02/12/20 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 02/12/20 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 03/24/20 |
| Pungent striped hyena | 03/24/20 |
| Flickering coldplay fan | 04/04/20 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 04/26/20 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 05/13/20 |
| Flickering coldplay fan | 06/05/20 |
| aquamarine lettuce | 06/05/20 |
| Flickering coldplay fan | 09/09/20 |
| shivering razzle-dazzle stock car | 09/09/20 |
| Electric orchestra pit people who are hurt | 09/09/20 |
| Ruddy coffee pot | 09/12/20 |
| ruby alpha step-uncle's house | 09/24/20 |
| Charismatic Water Buffalo | 10/09/20 |
| green community account potus | 10/10/20 |
| vermilion chad | 10/22/20 |
| navy cheese-eating psychic | 10/22/20 |
| Talking national depressive | 10/22/20 |
| Talking national depressive | 10/22/20 |
| slate wagecucks windowlicker | 03/23/22 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 10/27/20 |
| hairraiser property ape | 10/27/20 |
| Charismatic Water Buffalo | 10/30/20 |
| green community account potus | 11/03/20 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 03/22/22 |
| Naked cruise ship weed whacker | 03/23/22 |
| Crackhouse Hissy Fit | 03/23/22 |
| misanthropic double fault | 03/23/22 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 07/25/22 |
| Electric orchestra pit people who are hurt | 07/25/22 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 10/23/22 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 11/16/22 |
| aqua gaming laptop hell | 04/25/23 |
| Chartreuse idiot trump supporter | 04/25/23 |
| ruby alpha step-uncle's house | 04/29/23 |
| Nighttime theater stage | 05/28/23 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 02/22/24 |
| ruby alpha step-uncle's house | 02/23/24 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 05/23/24 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 08/26/24 |
| ruby alpha step-uncle's house | 09/13/24 |
| Electric orchestra pit people who are hurt | 09/13/24 |
| ruby alpha step-uncle's house | 10/18/24 |
| narrow-minded masturbator boistinker | 10/11/24 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 11/06/24 |
| mentally impaired macaca kitchen | 03/04/25 |
| mentally impaired macaca kitchen | 03/04/25 |
| aromatic range background story | 03/04/25 |
| narrow-minded masturbator boistinker | 03/04/25 |
| Sienna Tattoo | 03/04/25 |
| Sooty kitty | 03/05/25 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 03/07/25 |
| Pearly lodge newt | 03/07/25 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 03/08/25 |
| alcoholic rehab | 03/08/25 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 03/08/25 |
| transparent cracking sound barrier ladyboy | 02/18/26 |
| spectacular bronze spot | 05/15/26 |
| slap-happy cuckold menage | 05/17/26 |
| Sooty kitty | 08/11/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
 |
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: arrogant boyish gunner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29364653) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32284620) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: hairraiser property ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29532817) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: onyx racy principal's office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29532846) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: onyx racy principal's office another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30631018) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Well-lubricated hospital 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30144195) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: Buff motley police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32284612) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: curious mother "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Electric orchestra pit people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29351706) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: Stirring plaza wrinkle 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29351728) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: transparent cracking sound barrier ladyboy 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29351742) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Chocolate immigrant Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29351744) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: Flesh Cuckoldry Private Investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29384172) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: low-t bbw cumskin FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29351749) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: 180 rigor Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29351753) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: vigorous school kitty cat Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: lavender fat ankles regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29359932) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: Fluffy Hyperventilating Heaven Legal Warrant Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29364985) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Wonderful burgundy stage death wish Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29392387) |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Drab sanctuary black woman Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Soggy Snowy Jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31854764) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29359811) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: Trip church toilet seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29359818) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: alcoholic supple karate 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29359849) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: lavender fat ankles regret November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29359926) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: beady-eyed incel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29364617) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Excitant house Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29677834) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: exciting base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31866880) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29364607) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Chartreuse idiot trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29364621) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: flatulent keepsake machete box office lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29364630) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: Mint hominid ticket booth March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: plum gas station goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29384155) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: sickened amber school cafeteria 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29429271) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: big-titted famous landscape painting parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29364847) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: Dun university lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29364873) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Titillating massive philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29364887) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: mentally impaired macaca kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29364890) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Vibrant infuriating locus Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29364896) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: crimson home turdskin Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29364933) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: 180 rigor OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29383835) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: 180 rigor And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: Exhilarant Vengeful Elastic Band 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29383898) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: bearded diverse center tank fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29383961) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: bonkers arousing milk I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29384107) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: apoplectic big telephone institution 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29384183) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Bull headed insanely creepy jewess February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: hideous space You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29384207) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29384231) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29384237) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29384254) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29384262) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Opaque meetinghouse mad cow disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29525662) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Excitant house Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29677869) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: bateful preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32165246) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: Black Rebellious Native Roommate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30504262) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Odious Bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31172544) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31846270) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: green community account potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31846325) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: doobsian field Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Talking national depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#41167037) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Talented brindle pit mad-dog skullcap This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29384232) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: salmon liquid oxygen 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29392396) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: Heady location sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29392414) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: copper forum gaping Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29392427) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
|
Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: spectacular bronze spot Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: saffron anal dilemma laser beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29411300) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: hairraiser property ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29532836) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: khaki prole deer antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29411342) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: sickened amber school cafeteria 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29429241) |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Drab sanctuary black woman flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29519032) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29525598) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Excitant house Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29677890) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: saffron anal dilemma laser beams From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: Vivacious carmine parlour patrolman 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29531444) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: henna dead den (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29531475) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: glittery sable roast beef dragon An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29531481) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: dashing library 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29531500) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: glittery sable roast beef dragon I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: hairraiser property ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29532843) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: glittery sable roast beef dragon Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29535993) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: dashing library No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29531557) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Odious Bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29532829) |
|
Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: sickened amber school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29546163) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Dull marvelous azn dog poop 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29551314) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: sickened amber school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29554010) |
|
Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: saffron anal dilemma laser beams http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29559692) |
|
Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: sickened amber school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29566112) |
|
Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: spectacular bronze spot http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29622950) |
|
Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
|
Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: saffron anal dilemma laser beams looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29677719) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: concupiscible orange main people abode 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29677863) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: Excitant house You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29677913) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: concupiscible orange main people abode No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29791782) |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Dull marvelous azn dog poop (2-time shitbama voter) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31345881) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: hairraiser property ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#37162047) |
|
Date: January 29th, 2016 4:25 PM Author: Ebony quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29708433) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29727124) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:21 AM Author: aggressive nursing home mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29727197) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29732588) |
|
Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29771453) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 8:59 PM Author: Vivacious carmine parlour patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29791735) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:00 PM Author: Topaz contagious office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29791763) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29877406) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: fragrant glassy affirmative action OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29877434) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM Author: Black Rebellious Native Roommate PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29903568) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM Author: azure irradiated toaster address The OP is XO at its peak brilliance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29903615) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:57 PM Author: stimulating voyeur juggernaut (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29931652) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:52 AM Author: Exhilarant Vengeful Elastic Band (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30015868) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: jade giraffe therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30066562) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:55 PM Author: transparent cracking sound barrier ladyboy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30066681) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:52 AM Author: bearded diverse center tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30070592) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:18 AM Author: Flushed tripping shrine nowag hosting error... LOL
this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: house-broken headpube (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29904083) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: bearded diverse center tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30987707) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Galvanic grizzly stage selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29904074) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: transparent cracking sound barrier ladyboy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29931637) |
|
Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29960115) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#29976826) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30015799) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: Vivacious carmine parlour patrolman yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30015891) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30065629) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: Black Rebellious Native Roommate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30065970) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: Cyan swashbuckling site (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30066291) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM Author: domesticated indigo theater travel guidebook truly 180 thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30066549) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: spectacular bronze spot It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: 180 rigor March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30070601) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: green community account potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30119676) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30119337) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: Titillating massive philosopher-king http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30140474) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: insane comical fortuitous meteor Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30140513) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30144174) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Opaque meetinghouse mad cow disease jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30151942) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: green community account potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30151965) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: Stirring plaza wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30151975) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Odious Bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31172540) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: hairraiser property ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#37162050) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: spectacular bronze spot "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: French Carnelian Lay Blood Rage lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30160689) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: French Carnelian Lay Blood Rage "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30161654) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30163086) |
|
Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30183235) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: French Carnelian Lay Blood Rage interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
|
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: thriller temple hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30279158) |
|
Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30307876) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: aphrodisiac organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30310760) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: Flirting shitlib I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30310807) |
|
Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30335375) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30346848) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30353572) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: gay ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30353587) |
|
Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: lake buck-toothed nibblets old irish cottage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30378951) |
|
Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: autistic dingle berry pocket flask Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: autistic dingle berry pocket flask (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31825048) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30392947) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: green community account potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30393360) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: multi-colored church building half-breed holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30398720) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: underhanded set digit ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30402170) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30405223) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Dull marvelous azn dog poop 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30405346) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: spectacular bronze spot Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: mentally impaired macaca kitchen Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30412976) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30412844) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: house-broken headpube Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30412994) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Chartreuse idiot trump supporter This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30504267) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30504223) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Black Rebellious Native Roommate In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30504268) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Chartreuse idiot trump supporter cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30504274) |
|
Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30583536) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30746085) |
|
Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
|
Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: spectacular bronze spot http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30924907) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Flickering coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30933127) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Odious Bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30933205) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30956384) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Dull marvelous azn dog poop 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30956397) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: spectacular bronze spot http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30987656) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30999290) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: lemon metal ceo stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#30999301) |
|
Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: adventurous area Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31006876) |
|
Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31020363) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Turquoise business firm gay wizard Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31022942) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: French Carnelian Lay Blood Rage amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31023351) |
|
Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31043518) |
|
Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31113817) |
|
Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Dull marvelous azn dog poop holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31172565) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31172569) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Cerebral amethyst puppy round eye LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31172627) |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Dull marvelous azn dog poop 180 i want 2 believe |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Dull marvelous azn dog poop lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31345879) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: French Carnelian Lay Blood Rage ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31404088) |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: big-titted famous landscape painting parlor Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31404101) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Light Soul-stirring Goyim September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: cream godawful resort hairy legs September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: onyx racy principal's office god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31413930) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: shivering razzle-dazzle stock car XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31413938) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: aromatic range background story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31413954) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Elite piazza sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31443744) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Elite piazza sex offender The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31443779) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Dull marvelous azn dog poop let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31503555) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31482152) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: spectacular bronze spot http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31503552) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Dull marvelous azn dog poop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31503554) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: 180 rigor This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31503556) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: lascivious ultramarine clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31592208) |
|
Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Nighttime theater stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#47906632) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: French Carnelian Lay Blood Rage http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: big-titted famous landscape painting parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31511665) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Dull marvelous azn dog poop 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31511673) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: Flirting shitlib This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31512070) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: thriller temple hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31513385) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: Appetizing canary mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31592192) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Dull marvelous azn dog poop hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31594952) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: seedy trailer park antidepressant drug Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31594953) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Dull marvelous azn dog poop doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31594954) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: passionate rough-skinned mexican hall half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31594956) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: French Carnelian Lay Blood Rage nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
|
|
Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Turquoise business firm gay wizard close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31763265) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Odious Bawdyhouse Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31772625) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: shivering razzle-dazzle stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31777531) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: territorial pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31782180) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: apoplectic big telephone institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31786832) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: French Carnelian Lay Blood Rage prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31825019) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: painfully honest bossy son of senegal You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31833310) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: French Carnelian Lay Blood Rage true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31833315) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31839758) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: French Carnelian Lay Blood Rage ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31844114) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: mind-boggling red crotch circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31842891) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Duck-like Cocky Becky Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: aggressive nursing home mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31843660) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: Elite piazza sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31844292) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31844674) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: at-the-ready public bath trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31846281) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Light Soul-stirring Goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31846326) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: floppy balding point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31846448) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31848552) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: shivering razzle-dazzle stock car GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31848608) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: at-the-ready public bath trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31848693) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Turquoise business firm gay wizard it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31848755) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: mentally impaired macaca kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31848775) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: navy cheese-eating psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32044462) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: exciting base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32076291) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: bateful preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32165256) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: narrow-minded masturbator boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#48187313) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Translucent casino sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31848725) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Honey-headed Station Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31849301) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: Crusty submissive love of her life messiness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31849447) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: claret athletic conference market 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: navy cheese-eating psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31851790) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Odious Bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31852918) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31854576) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Chartreuse idiot trump supporter this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31854584) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Dull marvelous azn dog poop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31855383) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: Dark volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31855482) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31863076) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: shaky persian senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31863082) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Razzmatazz bistre skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31863093) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Chocolate immigrant you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31863503) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: khaki prole deer antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31866924) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: concupiscible orange main people abode Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31868448) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: onyx racy principal's office bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31866864) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: Laughsome pistol corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31867005) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: French Carnelian Lay Blood Rage ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31868235) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: fragrant glassy affirmative action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31868543) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Elite piazza sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31907692) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: insecure razzle doctorate They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31907697) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: provocative bespoke halford Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32055646) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: bateful preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32165261) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: narrow-minded masturbator boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#48187317) |
|
Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#31989410) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: Peach pervert state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32044435) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: passionate rough-skinned mexican hall GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32055631) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: disgusting abusive theatre indirect expression https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32076268) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: onyx racy principal's office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32076292) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: Peach pervert state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32076345) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32284600) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32284631) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
|
Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#39686962) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: onyx racy principal's office truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32284649) |
|
Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: green community account potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32389095) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32412323) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32416346) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Appetizing canary mood TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32441222) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32441238) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: citrine chapel legend I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: Appetizing canary mood it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32441319) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32458110) |
|
Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32466804) |
|
Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32560776) |
|
Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32612572) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32714310) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#33221553) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#33222883) |
|
Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Wild Factory Reset Button Idea He Suggested https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#34257967) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: transparent cracking sound barrier ladyboy this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32441221) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: shivering razzle-dazzle stock car One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32714399) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: hairraiser property ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#32891711) |
|
Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#33097887) |
|
Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#33256991) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#33605191) |
|
Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#34449074) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: green community account potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#34449102) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: coral angry brunch twinkling uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#34449138) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#34615930) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: histrionic overrated garrison marketing idea credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#34615959) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Internet-worthy corn cake whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#34636123) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: rusted cruel-hearted sneaky criminal dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#34636459) |
|
Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: sexy wine genital piercing tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#34673088) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: green community account potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#34948560) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Dull marvelous azn dog poop Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#34948572) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: green community account potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#34950581) |
|
Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#35278621) |
|
Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: onyx racy principal's office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#36168381) |
|
Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: spectacular bronze spot https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#36451135) |
|
Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: green community account potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#36458802) |
|
Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: aromatic range background story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#36847087) |
|
Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Stirring plaza wrinkle It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#36973680) |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#36973690) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: onyx racy principal's office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#37090167) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: cream godawful resort hairy legs Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#37090191) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Excitant house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#37161974) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: onyx racy principal's office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#37161955) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: hairraiser property ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#37162045) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: onyx racy principal's office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#37167335) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#37553376) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: jet associate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#37833345) |
|
Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
|
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Excitant house There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#38431500) |
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: Charismatic Water Buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#38431431) |
|
Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#39135638) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: shivering razzle-dazzle stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#39583415) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#39583624) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#39849854) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Pungent striped hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#39849877) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Flickering coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#39938878) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#40097972) |
|
Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Flickering coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#40354730) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: aquamarine lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#40355911) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Flickering coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#40896459) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: shivering razzle-dazzle stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#40896523) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Electric orchestra pit people who are hurt Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#40896526) |
|
Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: Ruddy coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#40908695) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: ruby alpha step-uncle's house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#40977795) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: Charismatic Water Buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#41079968) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: green community account potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#41088157) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: vermilion chad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#41166967) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: navy cheese-eating psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#41166990) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Talking national depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#41167039) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Talking national depressive https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#41167053) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: slate wagecucks windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#44203011) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#41200021) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: hairraiser property ape (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#41202581) |
|
Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: Charismatic Water Buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#41222868) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: green community account potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#41261120) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#44196611) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Naked cruise ship weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#44202968) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: Crackhouse Hissy Fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#44202984) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: misanthropic double fault 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#44203017) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#44911871) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Electric orchestra pit people who are hurt A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#44911874) |
|
Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#45378008) |
|
Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: aqua gaming laptop hell https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#46237455) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Chartreuse idiot trump supporter why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#46237460) |
|
Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: ruby alpha step-uncle's house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#46252623) |
|
Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Nighttime theater stage FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
|
Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#47428670) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: ruby alpha step-uncle's house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#47430198) |
|
Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
|
Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#48010724) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: ruby alpha step-uncle's house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#48087201) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Electric orchestra pit people who are hurt One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#48087224) |
|
Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: ruby alpha step-uncle's house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#48211967) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: narrow-minded masturbator boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#48187302) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#48296972) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: mentally impaired macaca kitchen 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#48715841) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: mentally impaired macaca kitchen https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#48715847) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: aromatic range background story Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: narrow-minded masturbator boistinker The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#48715863) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: Sienna Tattoo He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#48715869) |
|
Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: Sooty kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#48716330) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: spectacular bronze spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#48724299) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: Pearly lodge newt 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#48724306) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: spectacular bronze spot "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: alcoholic rehab Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#48727216) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#48727802) |
|
Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: transparent cracking sound barrier ladyboy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#49679495) |
|
Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: spectacular bronze spot ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
|
Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: slap-happy cuckold menage i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |
|
Date: August 11th, 2026 2:24 AM Author: Sooty kitty Weird how 99% of the internet disappeared one day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2…id#50060136) |