https://www.unz.com/bhua/the-myth-of-india-becoming-the-next-china/

The Myth of India Becoming the Next China

Another delusion divorced from reality and history

HUA BIN • NOVEMBER 14, 2025 • 1,700 WORDS • 201 COMMENTS

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Karl Marx described India as a civilization without a history.

The statement was not a denial of India’s ancient existence or cultural achievements. Rather, it

reflected his historical-materialist analysis of social development, particularly in the context of

economic dynamism and class struggle.

In his 1853 article “The Future Results of British Rule in India”, Marx wrote: “Indian society

has no history at all, at least no known history. What we call its history, is but the history of the

successive intruders who founded their empires on the passive basis of that unresisting and

unchanging society.”

This was not a claim that India lacked a past or civilization, but that its social structure—based

on village communities and caste—appeared stagnant and resistant to internal change,

especially in contrast to the dynamic class struggles that Marx saw as driving historical

progress in Europe.

Marx viewed India’s pre-colonial society as economically static, lacking the internal

contradictions (like feudalism vs. bourgeoisie) that, in his theory, propel historical change.

Marx’s views were hardly unique among historians, many of whom view India as a civilization

without a history from an anthropological perspective.

Unlike other ancient civilizations such as Greece, China, Egypt or Mesopotamia where history

has long been recorded in detailed, linear chronological writings, Indian history lacks written

documentation and is largely transmitted orally, often blending facts with fiction and

mythology.

In addition, India has historically been a geographic concept, rather than a nation state. The

land was occupied by a myriad of native communal villages, tribes, and maharajahs,

fragmented by hundreds of languages and an equal number of religions.

Over time, the land known as India was ruled in succession by foreign invaders such as Aryans,

Persians, Tokharians, Mongols, Afghanis, Muslims, and the British.

They ruled through the Kuru Kingdom, Achaemenid Empire, Kushan Empire, Mughal Empire,

Lodi Dynasty, and the British Raj.

Long term foreign colonial rule has deprived the natives off the spirit of resistance. Coupled

with the Hindu religious belief of reincarnation, and the Caste system which mandates a

person’s fate is tied to the social hierarchy of his birth, a cultural identity of acceptance of one’s

destiny is forged.

This passive acceptance culminated in Gandhi’s quest for independence through the “noncooperation” movement in the 1940s.

India’s path to sovereignty and independence is completely different from the Chinese, who

fought against foreign invaders for over 100 years through two Opium Wars (1830s through

1860s), the first Sino-Japanese War (1894 – 1895), and the second Sino-Japanese War (1931 –

1945).

China’s path was one of violent revolution and trial by fire, with sacrifices of millions of lives.

The quest to overcome the Century of Humiliation has forged a will of steel and an indomitable

fighting spirit for both the ruling Communist Party and the general population.

As the West steps up its effort to contain China, it has actively recruited India to the cause and

attempted to prop up India as a replacement for China, both as a manufacturing base and as a

market.

After a decade-old effort through QUAD, US India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, and

renaming Asia Pacific to Indo-Pacific (much like the newly minted Gulf of USA and

Department of War – which are keys to recover national greatness), how far has India gone to

achieve such a goal? Will it ever reach the “potential” promoted by western propaganda?

Here is an incomplete scorecard –

GDP in 2024 reached $3.9 trillion, compared with China’s $19 trillion

GDP per capita at $2,800, vs. China’s $13,800. For context, Indian GDP per capita is roughly

the same as Angola and Cambodia, lower than Venezuela ($3,100), 65% of Vietnam, 50% of

Indonesia

Merchandise export at $400 billion, compared with China’s $3.5 trillion

Manufacturing as % of GDP at 13%, compared with 27% in China. The Indian government

published the Made in India plan, in 2011, with a goal to achieve 25% manufacturing GDP by

2025. It actually declined from 15% in 2011 to 13% by 2024

India’s share in global manufacturing value added (MVA) is 2.8% in 2024 against 35% for

China

While India has failed to industrialize, pollution in the country has reached the top of global

scoreboards. According to The Hindu newspaper, 6 of the top 10 most polluted cities in the

world are in India, including New Delhi

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) declined in 2024 over 2023, despite foreign investors

looking for alternatives to China due to the trade war

Many top global manufacturers have decided to pass from producing in India due to

corruption, bureaucracy, bad infrastructure, and lack of skilled workers. This includes Tesla,

Fiat, Philips, GM, and Xiaomi

India is heavily dependent on Chinese supply chains for electronics, solar, automotive, and

pharmaceutical industries

India has one of the world’s highest tariff and non-tariff trade barriers and has a well-earned

reputation of being “the graveyard for multinationals”

Anyone who has been to India and China will tell you the difference between the two countries

in infrastructure, standard of living, and basic hygiene/cleanness.

No need to consult statistics books, just look around.

With a manufacturing sector that is less than one tenth of China and GDP per capita lower

than half of African countries, any talk about India replacing China as either a production base

or a consumer market is pure fantasy.

And the gap is widening, not narrowing, in infrastructure, education, productivity, government

efficiency, and overall preparedness for industries of the future such as AI, robotics, space, and

life science.

Geopolitically, India has acted as a fence-sitter since its independence – maintaining a close

relationship with Russia while flirting with the west.

Its main claim to fame is loyalty to none –

India depends on oil and weapons from Russia, but Modi refused to attend the May 8

Moscow parade and stand by Putin, afraid of offending the US and Europe;

It signed a comprehensive strategic partnership deal with Iran a few months before the Iran

Israel conflict, but refused to denounce Israel’s attack and attempted to block a joint

declaration by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO);

India has a hostile policy towards Muslims and openly supports Israel’s genocide in Gaza, but

also tries to win favors with the Gulf states for investment and employment (lots of Indian

labourers in the Middle East);

India is a member of BRICS and SCO but consistently plays an obstructionist role in dedollarization, admission of new members, and collective stand on global issues (such as the

Iran Israel conflict and the US aggression against Cuba and Venezuela);

India’s effort to win the West’s affection hit a wall when Trump imposed 50% tariff for its

purchase of Russian energy and openly derided India as “not important”. Washington has

realized India is not an asset in containing China, but another free loader riding on its

coattail.

In short, India doesn’t possess either the economic power or the geopolitical decisiveness to be

a major player. It has no real friends. Every one of its neighbors hate it.

Much of India’s dilemma stems from its mentality and national psyche, which is a mix of selfperceived superiority and down-trodden reality.

The deficiency of the Indian mindset is on full display when it lost the brief air war with

Pakistan in May but insisted to celebrate the defeat as unqualified success in front of the world.

A term has been coined – “Bharat Triumphalogy” – to describe this strange mentality centered

around the celebration of self-deception.

In many ways, India is a pre-modern, semi-primitive society with deeply embedded

backwardness in its culture and religion.

The Hindu caste system preordains individuals into rigid social strata that perpetuates

inequality and fundamentally hinders progress and mobility.

In the caste system, Indians display slavish obedience to those in the higher caste and absolute

contempt to those in the lower caste.

They are told to settle for their assigned life station, marry within their own caste, and pray for

a better deal in the next life. Meritocracy is an alien concept, so is progress.

Hinduism believes in the circular life – reincarnation and after life. In this worldview, suffering

and degradation in this life is due to one’s own failure in the past life; injustice in this life must

be tolerated in hope of “winning” in the next life.

As discussed earlier, there was no written history for the Indian civilization. Instead, stories

have been passed down the generations orally in a mix of facts and fantasy.

Failures and defeat are not part of the package. The Indians always prevail. Despite repeated

conquest by foreigners in its long history, there is no equivalent of China’s Century of

Humiliation to motivate the Indians to strive for rejuvenation.

After all, they have always won in their version of history. The India Pakistan air war, known in

India as Operation Sindoor, will no doubt be recorded as another “win” in the official chronicle

for posterity.

Modi sent 7 “victory delegations” to share its “success” with over 40 foreign governments and

declared a 10-day national celebrations.

(Republished from Substack by permission of author or representative)

Such self-deception goes beyond military defeats. In May, the IMF published a forecast

predicting the Indian economy could overtake Japan by 2026/2027. On May 27, 2025, Modi

called for national celebration and announced to the world “India is the world’s 4 largest

economy” in bold letters.

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Such “popping champaign ahead of time” for an economic forecast may seem bizarre to the rest

of the world. But for India, this is the manifestation of the “winner mentality”.

Similarly, Indians celebrate their joining various “clubs”, a term much abused by the hyperbolic

Indian media – the “nuclear weapon club”, the “space power club”, the “supersonic missile

club”, on and on.

Too bad, it is still denied admission to the ultimate “club” – the Permanent Security Members

of the United Nations. A national shame no doubt.

With no common language or shared history, the “Bharat Triumphalogy” is the glue holding the

fragmented country together.

In the end, “India as replacement for China” is just another farce that is fed to the Indians and

devoured eagerly by a desperate west that either doesn’t know better or is equally delusional.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5799317&forum_id=2#49438936)