Vance’s deeper problem isn’t competence. It’s chemistry. He didn’t create MAGA, and he never could have. That movement required instinct, appetite and raw political gravity. It required Trump.

Trump is a political wrecking ball. He is manic, magnetic, unavoidable. Vance operates differently. He explains power, contextualizes it and rationalizes it. He never generates it.

That worked when Trump was rising. It’s far less useful when Trump is declining.

As Trump’s numbers slide, Vance becomes the lightning rod. He must honor Trump without imitating him, defend the record without taking responsibility for its failures, while pitching calm from inside the storm. It’s ballet in work boots. Vance is many things, but he was never meant to lead the dance

Which brings us to the probable opponent.

Gavin Newsom has Hollywood-grade instincts. He was made to perform. And in modern presidential politics, performance beats conviction nine times out of ten. Newsom looks presidential in the way actors look heroic — before they’ve done anything heroic at all.

He understands the camera. He understands posture, pacing, pause. He knows when to feign outrage, when to smirk, when to lean forward and lower his voice. He takes up space effortlessly. Voters register this long before they process policy.

Newsom also understands the media ecosystem. He baits Trump just enough to stay centered while Trump does the shouting. Attention is power. Trump still generates enormous amounts of it. Newsom siphons a clean stream without getting soaked. It’s clinical. Almost elegant.

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/5663657-trump-political-brand-erosion/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5814586&forum_id=2#49543270)