The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 12/10/15 |
| frisky bronze alpha church | 12/12/15 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 01/02/17 |
| Sticky angry shrine | 01/06/16 |
| doobsian brass principal's office kitty cat | 01/06/16 |
| doobsian brass principal's office kitty cat | 06/05/16 |
| Khaki headpube | 03/26/16 |
| sepia mad-dog skullcap dilemma | 01/02/17 |
| Thriller love of her life becky | 10/25/18 |
| Insane Circlehead Corner | 12/10/15 |
| hot stag film knife | 12/10/15 |
| Multi-colored geriatric potus round eye | 12/10/15 |
| 180 toilet seat | 12/10/15 |
| vivacious station | 12/15/15 |
| Concupiscible range | 12/10/15 |
| cerebral charcoal abode | 12/10/15 |
| Mauve Jap | 12/10/15 |
| fragrant nursing home | 12/11/15 |
| embarrassed to the bone jet-lagged step-uncle's house indirect expression | 12/12/15 |
| Ungodly pervert | 12/16/15 |
| Peach party of the first part space | 01/04/16 |
| contagious stubborn rehab | 11/09/16 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 12/11/15 |
| overrated bipolar goyim depressive | 12/11/15 |
| Godawful odious crotch | 12/11/15 |
| fragrant nursing home | 12/11/15 |
| Erotic cerise home fanboi | 12/12/15 |
| purple talented hospital | 01/25/16 |
| burgundy medicated locus | 11/10/16 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 12/12/15 |
| Disturbing kitchen | 12/12/15 |
| silver bossy office | 12/12/15 |
| gold passionate corn cake gay wizard | 12/12/15 |
| Primrose Resort | 12/15/15 |
| shaky sweet tailpipe faggotry | 12/21/15 |
| Flirting boiling water | 12/12/15 |
| honey-headed spectacular goal in life | 12/12/15 |
| Slippery parlour | 12/12/15 |
| Nighttime associate state | 12/12/15 |
| Black dashing hissy fit gas station | 12/12/15 |
| Startling National Ape | 12/12/15 |
| cerebral charcoal abode | 12/15/15 |
| cerebral charcoal abode | 12/16/15 |
| Appetizing Thirsty Field Queen Of The Night | 12/15/15 |
| amber supple school cafeteria persian | 12/15/15 |
| vibrant market | 12/15/15 |
| aqua hideous den yarmulke | 12/15/15 |
| Pearly Set | 12/15/15 |
| high-end gaming laptop | 12/15/15 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 12/15/15 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 12/15/15 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 12/15/15 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 12/15/15 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 12/15/15 |
| Abusive school | 01/05/16 |
| purple talented hospital | 01/25/16 |
| Nudist Floppy Native | 12/17/16 |
| Cheese-eating scourge upon the earth new version | 05/18/16 |
| soul-stirring hall | 08/12/16 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 11/09/16 |
| Slap-happy galvanic therapy | 11/09/16 |
| crystalline rambunctious theatre | 11/09/16 |
| cruel-hearted pistol tanning salon | 10/22/20 |
| Marvelous codepig whorehouse | 12/15/15 |
| slate mildly autistic gunner | 12/16/15 |
| bateful theater stage | 12/16/15 |
| Sooty Gaped Locale | 12/16/15 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 12/16/15 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 12/17/15 |
| fluffy plaza | 12/18/15 |
| Sticky angry shrine | 01/06/16 |
| talking patrolman police squad | 12/18/15 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 12/21/15 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 12/21/15 |
| shaky sweet tailpipe faggotry | 12/21/15 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 12/30/15 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 12/30/15 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 01/04/16 |
| Peach party of the first part space | 01/04/16 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 01/05/16 |
| purple talented hospital | 01/25/16 |
| fluffy plaza | 01/05/16 |
| provocative coiffed mother | 01/05/16 |
| Insanely creepy shimmering sneaky criminal mood | 01/05/16 |
| Cyan racy meetinghouse psychic | 01/05/16 |
| Glittery lay famous landscape painting | 01/05/16 |
| Cyan racy meetinghouse psychic | 01/05/16 |
| Sticky angry shrine | 01/06/16 |
| Cyan racy meetinghouse psychic | 01/06/16 |
| Glittery lay famous landscape painting | 01/05/16 |
| soul-stirring hall | 01/06/16 |
| shaky sweet tailpipe faggotry | 01/07/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 01/08/16 |
| Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage | 01/08/16 |
| shaky sweet tailpipe faggotry | 01/08/16 |
| fluffy plaza | 01/09/16 |
| shaky sweet tailpipe faggotry | 01/10/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 01/18/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 01/19/16 |
| fluffy plaza | 01/21/16 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 01/25/16 |
| Beta digit ratio genital piercing | 01/25/16 |
| purple talented hospital | 01/25/16 |
| Beta digit ratio genital piercing | 02/09/16 |
| Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage | 09/06/16 |
| Sticky angry shrine | 11/05/18 |
| bat-shit-crazy temple | 01/29/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 02/01/16 |
| Bat shit crazy dull jew | 02/01/16 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 02/01/16 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 02/07/16 |
| provocative coiffed mother | 02/09/16 |
| Razzle quadroon university | 02/09/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 02/20/16 |
| puce sinister skinny woman | 02/20/16 |
| Cheese-eating scourge upon the earth new version | 02/24/16 |
| Frum lascivious business firm preventive strike | 02/24/16 |
| aromatic community account lodge | 02/27/16 |
| Appetizing Thirsty Field Queen Of The Night | 03/09/16 |
| stimulating cuckold | 03/15/16 |
| Multi-colored geriatric potus round eye | 03/15/16 |
| amber supple school cafeteria persian | 03/16/16 |
| irradiated indian lodge | 02/24/16 |
| Bearded hell multi-billionaire | 02/24/16 |
| amber supple school cafeteria persian | 07/21/16 |
| Bonkers walnut area tattoo | 02/24/16 |
| Multi-colored geriatric potus round eye | 02/27/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 03/02/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 03/04/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 03/09/16 |
| provocative coiffed mother | 03/09/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 03/15/16 |
| Cheese-eating scourge upon the earth new version | 03/15/16 |
| Diverse Location | 03/15/16 |
| emerald trip orchestra pit | 03/15/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 03/16/16 |
| cerebral charcoal abode | 03/16/16 |
| Slap-happy galvanic therapy | 03/23/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 03/23/16 |
| Slippery parlour | 03/26/16 |
| learning disabled flushed haunted graveyard | 03/26/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 03/26/16 |
| Abusive school | 03/28/16 |
| Slap-happy galvanic therapy | 03/28/16 |
| hot stag film knife | 03/28/16 |
| soul-stirring hall | 08/12/16 |
| Sticky angry shrine | 11/05/18 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 03/28/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 03/29/16 |
| effete brilliant lettuce | 03/29/16 |
| effete brilliant lettuce | 03/29/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 03/29/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 03/29/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 04/01/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 04/04/16 |
| effete brilliant lettuce | 04/15/16 |
| sable turdskin | 04/15/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 04/19/16 |
| laughsome mexican | 04/20/16 |
| razzmatazz senate reading party | 04/20/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 04/24/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 04/25/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 04/26/16 |
| fiercely-loyal white hominid legend | 04/26/16 |
| Excitant bistre coldplay fan cruise ship | 04/30/16 |
| Hateful lemon casino | 05/01/16 |
| Hateful lemon casino | 11/07/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 05/02/16 |
| Slap-happy galvanic therapy | 05/02/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 05/03/16 |
| heady avocado ladyboy | 05/03/16 |
| twinkling roast beef | 05/03/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 05/04/16 |
| Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage | 05/04/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 05/05/16 |
| Nighttime associate state | 05/05/16 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 05/05/16 |
| Bearded hell multi-billionaire | 05/05/16 |
| Disturbing kitchen | 05/18/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 05/18/16 |
| Cheese-eating scourge upon the earth new version | 05/18/16 |
| Disturbing kitchen | 05/18/16 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 05/29/16 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 06/20/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 06/29/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 07/14/16 |
| Costumed feces point | 07/15/16 |
| soul-stirring hall | 07/15/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 07/17/16 |
| Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage | 07/17/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 07/21/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 07/22/16 |
| Swashbuckling Cordovan Brethren | 07/22/16 |
| arousing alcoholic sex offender | 07/23/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 07/24/16 |
| Big-titted autistic wagecucks | 07/25/16 |
| effete brilliant lettuce | 07/25/16 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 07/27/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 08/05/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 08/09/16 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 08/12/16 |
| Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage | 08/12/16 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 08/12/16 |
| Garnet cracking garrison | 08/12/16 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 08/30/16 |
| Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage | 08/30/16 |
| Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage | 09/06/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 09/13/16 |
| effete brilliant lettuce | 09/14/16 |
| Flirting boiling water | 09/14/16 |
| Titillating narrow-minded travel guidebook | 09/15/16 |
| smoky beady-eyed parlor fat ankles | 09/15/16 |
| doobsian brass principal's office kitty cat | 09/15/16 |
| Stirring henna trust fund | 09/15/16 |
| copper seedy chad piazza | 09/15/16 |
| Adventurous dopamine | 09/19/16 |
| Adventurous dopamine | 09/19/16 |
| Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage | 09/27/16 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 09/24/16 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 09/27/16 |
| Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage | 09/27/16 |
| cerebral charcoal abode | 09/27/16 |
| wine voyeur | 10/08/16 |
| Gay boyish menage factory reset button | 07/29/24 |
| effete brilliant lettuce | 09/28/16 |
| Flirting boiling water | 09/28/16 |
| Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage | 09/28/16 |
| razzmatazz senate reading party | 09/28/16 |
| sable turdskin | 09/28/16 |
| domesticated electric trump supporter | 10/08/16 |
| Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage | 10/09/16 |
| wonderful property half-breed | 10/09/16 |
| Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage | 10/09/16 |
| translucent vigorous stage | 10/09/16 |
| effete brilliant lettuce | 10/10/16 |
| Big-titted autistic wagecucks | 10/30/16 |
| soul-stirring hall | 11/01/16 |
| Stirring henna trust fund | 11/01/16 |
| painfully honest ocher mental disorder | 11/02/16 |
| aqua hideous den yarmulke | 11/02/16 |
| effete brilliant lettuce | 11/07/16 |
| Sienna Histrionic Candlestick Maker Library | 11/08/16 |
| effete brilliant lettuce | 11/08/16 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 11/08/16 |
| effete brilliant lettuce | 11/08/16 |
| nubile mustard stead partner | 11/08/16 |
| Insecure Hairraiser Cuck Heaven | 11/08/16 |
| Bat shit crazy dull jew | 11/08/16 |
| Adventurous dopamine | 11/08/16 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 11/08/16 |
| Magenta greedy brunch blood rage | 11/09/16 |
| Titillating narrow-minded travel guidebook | 11/09/16 |
| clear juggernaut personal credit line | 11/09/16 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 11/09/16 |
| Stirring henna trust fund | 11/09/16 |
| Magenta greedy brunch blood rage | 11/09/16 |
| Big-titted autistic wagecucks | 11/09/16 |
| Nighttime associate state | 11/09/16 |
| misanthropic flesh sanctuary | 12/03/16 |
| burgundy medicated locus | 12/07/16 |
| Nudist Floppy Native | 12/17/16 |
| crusty big weed whacker | 10/11/24 |
| fuchsia volcanic crater | 11/09/16 |
| ebony twisted box office | 11/09/16 |
| jade charismatic nibblets stage | 11/09/16 |
| Bright dingle berry | 11/09/16 |
| misanthropic flesh sanctuary | 11/09/16 |
| soul-stirring hall | 11/09/16 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 11/09/16 |
| Disturbing kitchen | 11/09/16 |
| Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage | 11/09/16 |
| Navy base | 11/09/16 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 11/09/16 |
| Chartreuse Bbw | 11/09/16 |
| Aquamarine site milk | 11/09/16 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 11/09/16 |
| 180 toilet seat | 11/09/16 |
| talking patrolman police squad | 11/10/16 |
| Beta digit ratio genital piercing | 11/10/16 |
| doobsian brass principal's office kitty cat | 11/10/16 |
| claret hairless spot | 11/10/16 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 11/10/16 |
| effete brilliant lettuce | 11/10/16 |
| puce sinister skinny woman | 11/10/16 |
| Adventurous dopamine | 11/14/16 |
| orange motley trailer park | 11/14/16 |
| offensive tank | 12/04/16 |
| Nudist Floppy Native | 12/17/16 |
| crusty big weed whacker | 10/11/24 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 11/25/16 |
| Coral aphrodisiac double fault center | 12/03/16 |
| translucent vigorous stage | 12/04/16 |
| Lilac Pit | 12/07/16 |
| doobsian brass principal's office kitty cat | 12/07/16 |
| Coral aphrodisiac double fault center | 12/07/16 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 01/02/17 |
| Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask | 01/02/17 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 01/02/17 |
| Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask | 01/02/17 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 03/03/20 |
| doobsian brass principal's office kitty cat | 01/02/17 |
| Slap-happy galvanic therapy | 01/16/17 |
| Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask | 01/20/17 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 01/20/17 |
| Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask | 01/23/17 |
| domesticated electric trump supporter | 01/23/17 |
| Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask | 01/23/17 |
| mind-boggling crimson address | 01/23/17 |
| domesticated electric trump supporter | 01/23/17 |
| Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask | 01/23/17 |
| Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask | 01/25/17 |
| Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask | 01/26/17 |
| Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask | 02/06/17 |
| Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask | 02/13/17 |
| Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask | 02/27/17 |
| Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask | 05/03/17 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 05/03/17 |
| Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask | 09/21/17 |
| Multi-colored geriatric potus round eye | 01/23/17 |
| Stirring henna trust fund | 02/27/17 |
| Sticky angry shrine | 03/22/17 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 04/17/17 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 05/08/17 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 06/20/17 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 08/10/17 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 10/15/17 |
| Slap-happy galvanic therapy | 10/15/17 |
| Razzle-dazzle deep son of senegal house | 10/15/17 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 11/06/17 |
| mentally impaired aggressive bawdyhouse hairy legs | 11/06/17 |
| confused at-the-ready public bath death wish | 11/08/17 |
| lake hunting ground | 11/08/17 |
| disrespectful wrinkle | 11/13/17 |
| Slap-happy galvanic therapy | 12/18/17 |
| Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage | 12/18/17 |
| Slap-happy galvanic therapy | 12/18/17 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 01/30/18 |
| doobsian brass principal's office kitty cat | 06/01/18 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 07/18/18 |
| Slap-happy galvanic therapy | 07/19/18 |
| copper seedy chad piazza | 09/20/18 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 09/25/18 |
| hot stag film knife | 10/06/18 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 10/06/18 |
| doobsian brass principal's office kitty cat | 10/25/18 |
| smoky beady-eyed parlor fat ankles | 10/25/18 |
| purple talented hospital | 11/05/18 |
| doobsian brass principal's office kitty cat | 11/05/18 |
| Sticky angry shrine | 11/05/18 |
| doobsian brass principal's office kitty cat | 11/05/18 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 01/08/19 |
| Cowardly Legal Warrant | 02/23/19 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 03/13/19 |
| purple talented hospital | 06/24/19 |
| institution | 06/24/19 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 11/18/19 |
| Stirring henna trust fund | 02/12/20 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 02/12/20 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 03/24/20 |
| wild useless brakes | 03/24/20 |
| Costumed feces point | 04/04/20 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 04/26/20 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 05/13/20 |
| Costumed feces point | 06/05/20 |
| Ruby forum | 06/05/20 |
| Costumed feces point | 09/09/20 |
| Stirring henna trust fund | 09/09/20 |
| Insane Circlehead Corner | 09/09/20 |
| cocky liquid oxygen chapel | 09/12/20 |
| green crackhouse private investor | 09/24/20 |
| institution | 10/09/20 |
| Slap-happy galvanic therapy | 10/10/20 |
| Poppy church building | 10/22/20 |
| misanthropic flesh sanctuary | 10/22/20 |
| cruel-hearted pistol tanning salon | 10/22/20 |
| cruel-hearted pistol tanning salon | 10/22/20 |
| blathering carmine boistinker | 03/23/22 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 10/27/20 |
| Sticky angry shrine | 10/27/20 |
| institution | 10/30/20 |
| Slap-happy galvanic therapy | 11/03/20 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 03/22/22 |
| Sick messiness | 03/23/22 |
| rose | 03/23/22 |
| stain dragon | 03/23/22 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 07/25/22 |
| Insane Circlehead Corner | 07/25/22 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 10/23/22 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 11/16/22 |
| curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend | 04/25/23 |
| Disturbing kitchen | 04/25/23 |
| green crackhouse private investor | 04/29/23 |
| Gay boyish menage factory reset button | 05/28/23 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 02/22/24 |
| green crackhouse private investor | 02/23/24 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 05/23/24 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 08/26/24 |
| green crackhouse private investor | 09/13/24 |
| Insane Circlehead Corner | 09/13/24 |
| green crackhouse private investor | 10/18/24 |
| crusty big weed whacker | 10/11/24 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 11/06/24 |
| Nighttime associate state | 03/04/25 |
| Nighttime associate state | 03/04/25 |
| copper seedy chad piazza | 03/04/25 |
| crusty big weed whacker | 03/04/25 |
| swollen dysfunction | 03/04/25 |
| judgmental obsidian athletic conference | 03/05/25 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 03/07/25 |
| drunken rigpig | 03/07/25 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 03/08/25 |
| 03/08/25 |
| cobalt exciting ticket booth clown | 03/08/25 |
| Multi-colored geriatric potus round eye | 02/18/26 |
| lfo | 05/15/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
 |
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: frisky bronze alpha church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29364653) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32284620) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Sticky angry shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29532817) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: doobsian brass principal's office kitty cat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29532846) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: doobsian brass principal's office kitty cat another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30631018) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Khaki headpube 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30144195) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: sepia mad-dog skullcap dilemma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32284612) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: Thriller love of her life becky "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Insane Circlehead Corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29351706) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: hot stag film knife 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29351728) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Multi-colored geriatric potus round eye 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29351742) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: 180 toilet seat Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29351744) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: vivacious station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29384172) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: Concupiscible range FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29351749) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: cerebral charcoal abode Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29351753) |
|
Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Mauve Jap Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: fragrant nursing home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29359932) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: embarrassed to the bone jet-lagged step-uncle's house indirect expression Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29364985) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Ungodly pervert Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29392387) |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Peach party of the first part space Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: contagious stubborn rehab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31854764) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29359811) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: overrated bipolar goyim depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29359818) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: Godawful odious crotch 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29359849) |
|
Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: fragrant nursing home November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29359926) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Erotic cerise home fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29364617) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: purple talented hospital Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29677834) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: burgundy medicated locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31866880) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29364607) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Disturbing kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29364621) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: silver bossy office lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29364630) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: gold passionate corn cake gay wizard March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Primrose Resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29384155) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: shaky sweet tailpipe faggotry 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29429271) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: Flirting boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29364847) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: honey-headed spectacular goal in life lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29364873) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Slippery parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29364887) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Nighttime associate state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29364890) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Black dashing hissy fit gas station Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29364896) |
|
Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Startling National Ape Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29364933) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: cerebral charcoal abode OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29383835) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: cerebral charcoal abode And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: Appetizing Thirsty Field Queen Of The Night 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29383898) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: amber supple school cafeteria persian fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29383961) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: vibrant market I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29384107) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: aqua hideous den yarmulke 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29384183) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Pearly Set February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: high-end gaming laptop You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29384207) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29384231) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29384237) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29384254) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29384262) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Abusive school (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29525662) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: purple talented hospital Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29677869) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Nudist Floppy Native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32165246) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: Cheese-eating scourge upon the earth new version (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30504262) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: soul-stirring hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31172544) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31846270) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Slap-happy galvanic therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31846325) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: crystalline rambunctious theatre Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: cruel-hearted pistol tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#41167037) |
|
Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Marvelous codepig whorehouse This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29384232) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: slate mildly autistic gunner 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29392396) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: bateful theater stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29392414) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: Sooty Gaped Locale Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29392427) |
|
Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
|
Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: fluffy plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29411300) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Sticky angry shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29532836) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: talking patrolman police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29411342) |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
|
Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: shaky sweet tailpipe faggotry 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29429241) |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
|
Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
|
Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Peach party of the first part space flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29519032) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29525598) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: purple talented hospital Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29677890) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: fluffy plaza From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: provocative coiffed mother 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29531444) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Insanely creepy shimmering sneaky criminal mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29531475) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Cyan racy meetinghouse psychic An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29531481) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Glittery lay famous landscape painting 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29531500) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: Cyan racy meetinghouse psychic I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: Sticky angry shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29532843) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: Cyan racy meetinghouse psychic Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29535993) |
|
Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Glittery lay famous landscape painting No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29531557) |
|
Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: soul-stirring hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29532829) |
|
Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: shaky sweet tailpipe faggotry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29546163) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29551314) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: shaky sweet tailpipe faggotry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29554010) |
|
Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: fluffy plaza http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29559692) |
|
Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: shaky sweet tailpipe faggotry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29566112) |
|
Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29622950) |
|
Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
|
Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: fluffy plaza looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29677719) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: Beta digit ratio genital piercing 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29677863) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: purple talented hospital You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29677913) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: Beta digit ratio genital piercing No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29791782) |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage (2-time shitbama voter) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31345881) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Sticky angry shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#37162047) |
|
Date: January 29th, 2016 4:25 PM Author: bat-shit-crazy temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29708433) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29727124) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 11:21 AM Author: Bat shit crazy dull jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29727197) |
|
Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29732588) |
|
Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29771453) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 8:59 PM Author: provocative coiffed mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29791735) |
|
Date: February 9th, 2016 9:00 PM Author: Razzle quadroon university (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29791763) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29877406) |
|
Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: puce sinister skinny woman OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29877434) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM Author: Cheese-eating scourge upon the earth new version PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29903568) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM Author: Frum lascivious business firm preventive strike The OP is XO at its peak brilliance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29903615) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:57 PM Author: aromatic community account lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29931652) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:52 AM Author: Appetizing Thirsty Field Queen Of The Night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30015868) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: stimulating cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30066562) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:55 PM Author: Multi-colored geriatric potus round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30066681) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:52 AM Author: amber supple school cafeteria persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30070592) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 8:18 AM Author: irradiated indian lodge hosting error... LOL
this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: Bearded hell multi-billionaire (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29904083) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: amber supple school cafeteria persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30987707) |
|
Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Bonkers walnut area tattoo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29904074) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: Multi-colored geriatric potus round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29931637) |
|
Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29960115) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#29976826) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30015799) |
|
Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: provocative coiffed mother yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30015891) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30065629) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: Cheese-eating scourge upon the earth new version (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30065970) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: Diverse Location (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30066291) |
|
Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM Author: emerald trip orchestra pit truly 180 thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30066549) |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
|
Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: cerebral charcoal abode March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30070601) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: Slap-happy galvanic therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30119676) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30119337) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: Slippery parlour http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30140474) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: learning disabled flushed haunted graveyard Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30140513) |
|
Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30144174) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Abusive school jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30151942) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: Slap-happy galvanic therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30151965) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: hot stag film knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30151975) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: soul-stirring hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31172540) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: Sticky angry shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#37162050) |
|
Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: effete brilliant lettuce lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30160689) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: effete brilliant lettuce "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30161654) |
|
Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30163086) |
|
Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30183235) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: effete brilliant lettuce interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
|
|
Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: sable turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30279158) |
|
Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30307876) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: laughsome mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30310760) |
|
Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: razzmatazz senate reading party I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30310807) |
|
Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30335375) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30346848) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30353572) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: fiercely-loyal white hominid legend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30353587) |
|
Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: Excitant bistre coldplay fan cruise ship (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30378951) |
|
Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: Hateful lemon casino Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: Hateful lemon casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31825048) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30392947) |
|
Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: Slap-happy galvanic therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30393360) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: heady avocado ladyboy holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30398720) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: twinkling roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30402170) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30405223) |
|
Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30405346) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: Nighttime associate state Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30412976) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30412844) |
|
Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Bearded hell multi-billionaire Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30412994) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Disturbing kitchen This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30504267) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30504223) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Cheese-eating scourge upon the earth new version In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30504268) |
|
Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Disturbing kitchen cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30504274) |
|
Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30583536) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30746085) |
|
Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
|
Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30924907) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Costumed feces point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30933127) |
|
Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: soul-stirring hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30933205) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30956384) |
|
Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30956397) |
|
Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30987656) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30999290) |
|
Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: Swashbuckling Cordovan Brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#30999301) |
|
Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: arousing alcoholic sex offender Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31006876) |
|
Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31020363) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Big-titted autistic wagecucks Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31022942) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: effete brilliant lettuce amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31023351) |
|
Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31043518) |
|
Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31113817) |
|
Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31172565) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31172569) |
|
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Garnet cracking garrison LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31172627) |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
|
Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage 180 i want 2 believe |
|
Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31345879) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: effete brilliant lettuce ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31404088) |
|
Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Flirting boiling water Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31404101) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Titillating narrow-minded travel guidebook September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: smoky beady-eyed parlor fat ankles September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: doobsian brass principal's office kitty cat god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31413930) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Stirring henna trust fund XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31413938) |
|
Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: copper seedy chad piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31413954) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Adventurous dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31443744) |
|
Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Adventurous dopamine The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31443779) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31503555) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31482152) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31503552) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31503554) |
|
Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: cerebral charcoal abode This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31503556) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: wine voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31592208) |
|
Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Gay boyish menage factory reset button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#47906632) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: effete brilliant lettuce http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Flirting boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31511665) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31511673) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: razzmatazz senate reading party This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31512070) |
|
Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: sable turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31513385) |
|
Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: domesticated electric trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31592192) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31594952) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: wonderful property half-breed Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31594953) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31594954) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: translucent vigorous stage half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31594956) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: effete brilliant lettuce nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
|
|
Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Big-titted autistic wagecucks close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31763265) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: soul-stirring hall Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31772625) |
|
Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Stirring henna trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31777531) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: painfully honest ocher mental disorder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31782180) |
|
Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: aqua hideous den yarmulke (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31786832) |
|
Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: effete brilliant lettuce prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31825019) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Sienna Histrionic Candlestick Maker Library You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31833310) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: effete brilliant lettuce true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31833315) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31839758) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: effete brilliant lettuce ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31844114) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: nubile mustard stead partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31842891) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Insecure Hairraiser Cuck Heaven Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Bat shit crazy dull jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31843660) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: Adventurous dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31844292) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31844674) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: Magenta greedy brunch blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31846281) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Titillating narrow-minded travel guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31846326) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: clear juggernaut personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31846448) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31848552) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Stirring henna trust fund GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31848608) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: Magenta greedy brunch blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31848693) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Big-titted autistic wagecucks it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31848755) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: Nighttime associate state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31848775) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: misanthropic flesh sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32044462) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: burgundy medicated locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32076291) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Nudist Floppy Native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32165256) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: crusty big weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#48187313) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: fuchsia volcanic crater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31848725) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: ebony twisted box office Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31849301) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: jade charismatic nibblets stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31849447) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Bright dingle berry 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: misanthropic flesh sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31851790) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: soul-stirring hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31852918) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31854576) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Disturbing kitchen this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31854584) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31855383) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: Navy base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31855482) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31863076) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Chartreuse Bbw (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31863082) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Aquamarine site milk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31863093) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
|
Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: 180 toilet seat you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31863503) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: talking patrolman police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31866924) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Beta digit ratio genital piercing Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31868448) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: doobsian brass principal's office kitty cat bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31866864) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: claret hairless spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31867005) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: effete brilliant lettuce ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31868235) |
|
Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: puce sinister skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31868543) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Adventurous dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31907692) |
|
Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: orange motley trailer park They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31907697) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: offensive tank Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32055646) |
|
Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Nudist Floppy Native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32165261) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: crusty big weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#48187317) |
|
Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#31989410) |
|
Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: Coral aphrodisiac double fault center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32044435) |
|
Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: translucent vigorous stage GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32055631) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Lilac Pit https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32076268) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: doobsian brass principal's office kitty cat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32076292) |
|
Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: Coral aphrodisiac double fault center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32076345) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32284600) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32284631) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
|
Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#39686962) |
|
Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: doobsian brass principal's office kitty cat truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32284649) |
|
Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Slap-happy galvanic therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32389095) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32412323) |
|
Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32416346) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: domesticated electric trump supporter TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32441222) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32441238) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: mind-boggling crimson address I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: domesticated electric trump supporter it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32441319) |
|
Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32458110) |
|
Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32466804) |
|
Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32560776) |
|
Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32612572) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32714310) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#33221553) |
|
Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#33222883) |
|
Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Exhilarant Soggy Theater Pocket Flask https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#34257967) |
|
Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Multi-colored geriatric potus round eye this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32441221) |
|
Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Stirring henna trust fund One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32714399) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Sticky angry shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#32891711) |
|
Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#33097887) |
|
Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#33256991) |
|
Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#33605191) |
|
Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#34449074) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Slap-happy galvanic therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#34449102) |
|
Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle deep son of senegal house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#34449138) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#34615930) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: mentally impaired aggressive bawdyhouse hairy legs credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#34615959) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: confused at-the-ready public bath death wish (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#34636123) |
|
Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: lake hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#34636459) |
|
Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: disrespectful wrinkle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#34673088) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Slap-happy galvanic therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#34948560) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Canary Comical Windowlicker Old Irish Cottage Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#34948572) |
|
Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Slap-happy galvanic therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#34950581) |
|
Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#35278621) |
|
Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: doobsian brass principal's office kitty cat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#36168381) |
|
Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#36451135) |
|
Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Slap-happy galvanic therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#36458802) |
|
Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: copper seedy chad piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#36847087) |
|
Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: hot stag film knife It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#36973680) |
|
Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#36973690) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: doobsian brass principal's office kitty cat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#37090167) |
|
Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: smoky beady-eyed parlor fat ankles Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#37090191) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: purple talented hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#37161974) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: doobsian brass principal's office kitty cat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#37161955) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Sticky angry shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#37162045) |
|
Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: doobsian brass principal's office kitty cat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#37167335) |
|
Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#37553376) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: Cowardly Legal Warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#37833345) |
|
Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
|
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: purple talented hospital There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#38431500) |
|
Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#38431431) |
|
Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#39135638) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Stirring henna trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#39583415) |
|
Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#39583624) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#39849854) |
|
Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: wild useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#39849877) |
|
Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Costumed feces point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#39938878) |
|
Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#40097972) |
|
Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Costumed feces point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#40354730) |
|
Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: Ruby forum (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#40355911) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Costumed feces point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#40896459) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Stirring henna trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#40896523) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Insane Circlehead Corner Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#40896526) |
|
Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: cocky liquid oxygen chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#40908695) |
|
Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: green crackhouse private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#40977795) |
|
Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#41079968) |
|
Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Slap-happy galvanic therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#41088157) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: Poppy church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#41166967) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: misanthropic flesh sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#41166990) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: cruel-hearted pistol tanning salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#41167039) |
|
Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: cruel-hearted pistol tanning salon https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#41167053) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: blathering carmine boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#44203011) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#41200021) |
|
Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Sticky angry shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#41202581) |
|
Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#41222868) |
|
Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Slap-happy galvanic therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#41261120) |
|
Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#44196611) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Sick messiness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#44202968) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: rose (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#44202984) |
|
Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: stain dragon 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#44203017) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#44911871) |
|
Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Insane Circlehead Corner A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#44911874) |
|
Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#45378008) |
|
Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: curious internet-worthy stock car organic girlfriend https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#46237455) |
|
Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Disturbing kitchen why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#46237460) |
|
Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: green crackhouse private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#46252623) |
|
Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Gay boyish menage factory reset button FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
|
Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#47428670) |
|
Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: green crackhouse private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#47430198) |
|
Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
|
Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#48010724) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: green crackhouse private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#48087201) |
|
Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Insane Circlehead Corner One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#48087224) |
|
Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: green crackhouse private investor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#48211967) |
|
Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: crusty big weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#48187302) |
|
Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#48296972) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: Nighttime associate state 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#48715841) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: Nighttime associate state https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#48715847) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: copper seedy chad piazza Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: crusty big weed whacker The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#48715863) |
|
Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: swollen dysfunction He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#48715869) |
|
Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: judgmental obsidian athletic conference (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#48716330) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#48724299) |
|
Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: drunken rigpig 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#48724306) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#48727216) |
|
Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: cobalt exciting ticket booth clown Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#48727802) |
|
Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: Multi-colored geriatric potus round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id..#49679495) |
|
Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: lfo ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |