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Virginia Supreme Court sets aside redistricting election results - link
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:10 AM Author: Sadistic Garnet Bawdyhouse Roast Beef https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2052751840249274410
Looks like Republicans keep the House in 2026, though presumably Dems will redistrict in a lot of places by 2028. |
Date: May 8th, 2026 10:15 AM Author: Sadistic Garnet Bawdyhouse Roast Beef https://x.com/Jaaavis/status/2052752178440204374 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49874674) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:15 AM Author: Hairless self-centered toaster antidepressant drug Obama must be dying a bit inside today. He championed the VA effort but now it's officially a lawless power grab. In the meantime, Republicans are being more successful in their redistricting. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49874675) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:17 AM Author: Sadistic Garnet Bawdyhouse Roast Beef Overwhelmingly more successful. It will take the bluest of blue waves for Dems to take the House in 2026. Though I expect Republicans winning the election via judges will result in a huge backlash which will ensure every Dem state is gerrymandered to the max by 2028. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49874683) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:19 AM Author: Hairless self-centered toaster antidepressant drug sadly, very few states have fair processes. i will do some searching around to see how many are fair. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49874695) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 2:53 PM Author: azure institution WA does and it takes a supermajority to change. Libs are obviously not happy. Similar with income tax. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49875132) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 3:09 PM Author: Hairless self-centered toaster antidepressant drug yeah, WA seems like the one good example where Dems have not maxed out their power. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49875156) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:36 AM Author: Hairless self-centered toaster antidepressant drug which blue states are not already gerrymandered? maybe 2 or 3? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49874719) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 11:45 AM Author: doobsian tank for about a week beforehand a lot of podcasts I downloaded had his annoying voice at both ends, pleading with me to, uh, save democracy by voting yes in Virginia. I haven’t been near Virginia in months. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49874832) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:17 AM Author: jade nowag rehab lol eat shit dems ur all going to die. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49874685) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:18 AM Author: Hairless self-centered toaster antidepressant drug it's a thoughtful opinion that will be intellectually accessible to a lot of citizens. some highlights:
Under the proposed new map, approximately 47% of Virginians that voted for representatives of one of the major political parties in the last congressional election would now be represented by 9% of Virginia’s delegation to the U.S. House of Representatives — while the approximately 51% of Virginians that voted for the other major political party would now be represented by 91% of Virginia’s congressional delegation.8 |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:21 AM Author: Hairless self-centered toaster antidepressant drug Having successfully insisted (over the objection of the Claimants) 13 that we postpone judicial review of the constitutional amendment until after the election process, it might be tempting for the Commonwealth to think that the final vote implicitly stacks the deck in its favor — perhaps enough so that the exercise of any judicial review could be viewed as an ultra vires effort to overturn the will of the people. If this supposition were true — that Scott forbids pre-election challenges and that “the will of the people” forbids post-election challenges — then judicial review of allegedly unconstitutional procedures used to adopt a constitutional amendment would not exist in the Commonwealth of Virginia.14 |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:26 AM Author: Hairless self-centered toaster antidepressant drug With that perspective, imagine one of the over one million Virginians who had voted in person before Election Day in 2025 walking into a polling place. The voter says to the officer of election, “I am here to vote in the election.” The officer of election responds, “we are not conducting an election here.” “But that’s why I am here,” the voter replies. “Maybe so, but let me explain,” the officer of election insists, “you can vote in the election, but we are not conducting an election today. Elections are only conducted on Election Day.” |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:20 AM Author: cream keepsake machete this will work out well for you, cons (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49874697) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:23 AM Author: Thriller hall cons just fell into lib’s 3-d chess trap! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49874701) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:44 AM Author: exhilarant chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49874729) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 2:53 PM Author: azure institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49875134) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:25 AM Author: Ultramarine aphrodisiac circlehead degenerate Your “party” is over, sorry! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49874704) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:34 AM Author: Razzmatazz Brindle Fortuitous Meteor every state is already going ham on redistricting retard. what, is california gonna redistrict EVEN HARDER now? lmao (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49874717) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:22 AM Author: Ultramarine aphrodisiac circlehead degenerate Lmfaooooooo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49874700) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:31 AM Author: Concupiscible ruby striped hyena Good for them. If Dems get a trifecta in 2028, they need to use their capital to end this shit at the federal level by way of the common cause bill. If they play their cards right, they can create a contained exception to the filibuster that just gets countered a couple years later by a GOP bill for national voter ID, excuse-only absentee voting, roll cleaning, etc.
But this shit is seriously undermining the whole point/purpose of the House of representatives. No shit every rep just blindly votes for/against their potus; that's literally what their selection process selects for. |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:33 AM Author: Sadistic Garnet Bawdyhouse Roast Beef The redistricting could help Dems in the Senate races if it drives up turnout among blacks and other angry Dems. Not having a Republican Senate to confirm Trump's judicial nominations would hurt Republicans a lot more than a Dem House would. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49874714) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:42 AM Author: Concupiscible ruby striped hyena It's largely irrelevant. Dems are going to win the House no matter what and 3 votes is the same as 30 for purposes of "governing" over the next two years. (Even for 2028 reelection, the incumbency advantage these days is very small.)
But lol at an almost certainly correct court decision in Virginia "driv[ing] up turnout among blacks" in NC or GA, let alone Maine or ohio. |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:50 AM Author: Sadistic Garnet Bawdyhouse Roast Beef Agree the opinion is correct, and the black vote won't be based on Virginia as much as seeing things like Mississippi not being able to elect a black congressman even though they are 40% black. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49874742) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 11:42 AM Author: Concupiscible ruby striped hyena Yeah it'll be interesting to see how blacks react to the Callais redistricting. Short-term they may very well be worked up about it, although the Dem outrage machine has really not been functioning very well these days and doesn't seem to have adjusted to a post-MSM world.
Long-term it could erode black support for Dems in the south (I'm not suggesting to like 60-40, but by a bit; this is largely politically irrelevant unless it starts to spread elsewhere in the country through cultural osmosis). In these states you have super-weak state parties where the Dem leaders are these black congressmen in VRA opportunity districts (and state legislators, many of whom will also be districted out now). A higher proportion of the (smaller number of total) Dem state-leg seats will now be white suburb districts, and over time that makes a difference for keeping blacks in line. |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:43 AM Author: exhilarant chapel Lol libs. Eat shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49874726) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 3:40 PM Author: doobsian tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49875171) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:43 AM Author: Sadistic Garnet Bawdyhouse Roast Beef Betting markets still think Dems win?
https://x.com/ZhouJaron/status/2052758529837011440 |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:46 AM Author: Magenta floppy theater regret lol at your forecasting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49874732) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:48 AM Author: Sadistic Garnet Bawdyhouse Roast Beef The same VA SCOTUS ruled twice to allow the referendum to go forward. Seemed likely that they would be less willing to set aside a result after voters had already gone to the trouble of voting in an election that they allowed to take place. So yeah, I'm surprised. AI is as well- I asked a couple of them what was likely and they said what I did above. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49874738) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 11:00 AM Author: Hairless self-centered toaster antidepressant drug the Dem-controlled state government convincingly argued that the high court could not intervene pre-vote. the VA SCOTUS rubbed the Dems' nose in that in the excerpt i pasted above. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49874766) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 11:02 AM Author: Sadistic Garnet Bawdyhouse Roast Beef I agree the opinion was correct, but it was 4-3 and a Dem appointee wrote for the majority. He did his job correctly, but a lot of judges don't. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49874770) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:48 AM Author: Cobalt Menage Rigpig This will narrow the Dem margin by a few seats but ultimately won’t matter because they are going to go hard to gerrymander NY after 2026 which will even things out in 28. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49874739) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 10:51 AM Author: spectacular lilac juggernaut Callais says NOPE
Dems are headed for extinction, not exaggerating in the slightest |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: Sadistic Garnet Bawdyhouse Roast Beef In Trump's last midterm election, Dems gained [edit: 41] seats. My impression is that voters are even more pissed at him now than back then. So even if they only end up with a few more seats than the Republicans, it's going to be hard to ride out a superwave even with Callais. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49874768) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 11:06 AM Author: Sadistic Garnet Bawdyhouse Roast Beef https://x.com/Redistrict/status/2052754935939240434
Apparently two of the four seats are doable even under the current map. |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 11:09 AM Author: Sadistic Garnet Bawdyhouse Roast Beef Woah, Grok says Dems gained 41 seats in 2018:
Democrats gained a net of 41 seats in the 2018 U.S. House elections (per detailed tallies like Wikipedia), or 40 seats (per sources like Ballotpedia and NYT that adjust for pre-election composition).
This flipped control of the House from Republicans to Democrats, resulting in a 235–199 (or 235–200) Democratic majority in the 116th Congress.
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Seems like voters are way more pissed at Trump now than they were back then. A Dem House still seems quite likely. |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 11:51 AM Author: Concupiscible ruby striped hyena It's basically a foregone conclusion, although I don't think it's a huge deal, because (1) TRUMP has done absolutely nothing with his trifecta, so I have no reason to think he was set to do anything with it in 2027-2028; and (2) I think losing the House puts the GOP in a stronger position to win in 2028 for reasons that can be folded into the 'thermostatic' explanation (voters see a pendulum swing and political punishment being meted out after tons of coverage of a Dem win; and more importantly IMO, the GOP gets chastened/afraid and moderates (or, more precisely, increases the public appeal of) its politics). A House majority will allow the Dems to impeach ppl and shit, but I really question the political efficacy / likeability of all that crap, which I personally think comes across as a party (the GOP in 2023-24, and the Dems in 2027-28) doing the bidding of its exterior wing.
I would seriously argue that the ideal outcome for the GOP is holding the Senate (on that front, as much as possible: keeping at 53 or maybe even moving to 54 via ossoff), and losing the House by just a large enough margin to be reported / felt by the public as a wave/rebuke. |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 2:56 PM Author: azure institution Two reconciliation bills are pretty good, with the last version solidifying Trump's primary campaign issue. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49875146) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 2:57 PM Author: Medicated Electric Blood Rage What is “basically a foregone conclusion”? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49875148) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 6:58 PM Author: cream keepsake machete Dems taking the house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49875585) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 3:03 PM Author: azure institution Far fewer competitive seats this round but yeah...
However,
In late 2017 and early 2018, the Democratic Party's net favorability (favorable minus unfavorable) was roughly even or slightly positive, often leading Republicans by double digits. As of mid-2026, many major polls show the party’s net favorability has plummeted to nearly 30 points underwater (e.g., 33% favorable vs. 63% unfavorable). |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 11:23 PM Author: racy opaque heaven I actually had dinner w 2 va Supreme Court justices the night brofr this ruling came down. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49876189) |
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Date: May 8th, 2026 11:50 PM Author: Disturbing outnumbered legend i also ate at the Union Station Sbarro
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Date: May 9th, 2026 1:25 PM Author: racy opaque heaven It was at the country club of Virginia (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5864981&forum_id=2...id..#49876795) |