brothers, the market is insanely overbought. when to get out?
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Date: February 17th, 2015 4:02 PM Author: Big den
"experts" said it was overbought at 1900, at 1600 etc
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2810937&forum_id=2Vannesa#27334999)
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Date: February 17th, 2015 4:02 PM Author: Plum Exciting Church Building Coldplay Fan
When yellen starts to raise rates?
If anyone knew we'd all get out at the same time. Most guys in the biz know we are just sitting here playing hot potato until something hits the fan
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2810937&forum_id=2Vannesa#27335001) |
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Date: February 17th, 2015 4:20 PM Author: Plum Exciting Church Building Coldplay Fan
As always it will be the debt markets that move the equity markets. Perhaps a Greek exit from the Euro starting a run on european banks owning now worthless debt.
The world all around us is plummeting into deflation as rates hit the zero bound and QE type asset purchases by central banks do nothing to solve bad debts on bank balance sheets. Everyone is in a race to devalue their currency hoping more exports will jump start domestic economies
The US is sitting relatively pretty as the best house on a bad block but faces its own set of issues (eg all the debt to oil and gas companies that is now worthless at current oil prices, stronger USD hurting corporate earnings). Raising rates is the prudent thing to do for our domestic economy but could wreak havoc in places like China or in Europe where yields are negative for many counties.
The equity market is like the top of the ocean. The debt market IS the ocean.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2810937&forum_id=2Vannesa#27335096) |
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Date: February 17th, 2015 4:27 PM Author: Plum Exciting Church Building Coldplay Fan
Nobody knows what oil is going to do.
The most liquid, covered commodity in the world made like a 3 sigma price move in the span of a couple weeks. Some of the smartest investors in the world got their asses handed to them.
The underlying reason for the commodity supercycle collapse however is the rapid slowdown of China. Check out every other traded commodity - iron ore, copper, etc. China was the engine for demand but is now struggling under the weight of vast amount of bad debt. Its something that doesn't get much attention but is really impacting the global economy and could get worse.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2810937&forum_id=2Vannesa#27335129) |
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