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Polymarket screwing over traders re Venezuela

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Un...
charismatic cerise locus gaming laptop
  01/06/26
get a life you fucking dork
bossy party of the first part
  01/06/26
get off this bort you closeted fag
charismatic cerise locus gaming laptop
  01/06/26
you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you ...
bossy party of the first part
  01/06/26
you are literally a closeted fag
charismatic cerise locus gaming laptop
  01/06/26
you literally are jewishly projecting yet again.
bossy party of the first part
  01/07/26
i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes&qu...
crimson spectacular boistinker affirmative action
  01/06/26
LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking bl...
Stimulating forum
  01/06/26
It's fraud they need to pay out
white business firm
  01/06/26
The market is about an "invasion." It's about taki...
Floppy elastic band garrison
  01/06/26
The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of a...
Zippy provocative mad-dog skullcap abode
  01/06/26
Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) d...
Floppy elastic band garrison
  01/06/26
Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the int...
white business firm
  01/06/26
The market is for an invasion. The definition requires estab...
Floppy elastic band garrison
  01/06/26
https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites...
Zippy provocative mad-dog skullcap abode
  01/06/26
The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls...
Zippy provocative mad-dog skullcap abode
  01/06/26
seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt inten...
stirring national
  01/06/26
(Peter Thiel)
charismatic cerise locus gaming laptop
  01/06/26
yes its not like orange man said we run it now
jet-lagged erotic state
  01/06/26
I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree.
exhilarant underhanded clown
  01/06/26
Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this?...
white business firm
  01/06/26
usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting&rd...
charismatic cerise locus gaming laptop
  01/06/26
...
Floppy elastic band garrison
  01/06/26
cr
pea-brained misunderstood hall
  01/06/26
...
Pearl principal's office doctorate
  01/07/26
IRL Topicality moment
cerebral sooty jew deer antler
  01/06/26
...
seedy sepia home
  01/06/26
companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhau...
vermilion bateful shrine
  01/06/26
It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate w...
white business firm
  01/06/26
(guy who no longer has $1,600)
vermilion bateful shrine
  01/06/26
...
stirring national
  01/06/26
...
brass selfie
  01/07/26
It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after ...
nighttime racy dingle berry
  01/06/26
...
Zippy provocative mad-dog skullcap abode
  01/06/26
There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The ter...
white business firm
  01/06/26
Obvious yes But this is why you don't bet on stuff like t...
Zippy provocative mad-dog skullcap abode
  01/06/26
This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterar...
Floppy elastic band garrison
  01/06/26
cr, not a close call imo
stirring national
  01/06/26
Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so cle...
charismatic cerise locus gaming laptop
  01/06/26
The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said ...
Floppy elastic band garrison
  01/06/26
Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago.&qu...
Zippy provocative mad-dog skullcap abode
  01/06/26
This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "co...
white business firm
  01/06/26
this. it was a military offensive intended to establish cont...
crimson spectacular boistinker affirmative action
  01/06/26
Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acr...
white business firm
  01/06/26
So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't ma...
white business firm
  01/06/26
are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling...
Fishy mediation hell
  01/06/26
the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so ...
charismatic cerise locus gaming laptop
  01/06/26
If there was a breaking news report that “the us is in...
cordovan library scourge upon the earth
  01/06/26
His house was invaded (briefly)
pale nursing home ape
  01/06/26
...
pale nursing home ape
  01/06/26
I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.
thriller talking ticket booth
  01/06/26
I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise
pale nursing home ape
  01/07/26
Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game https://x.com...
charismatic cerise locus gaming laptop
  01/07/26
now this is just a straight up scam
stirring national
  01/07/26
Is Polymarket still fucking over its users?
white business firm
  01/07/26
Just made 60,000 dollars
seedy sepia home
  01/07/26
?
pale nursing home ape
  01/07/26
i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" h...
crimson spectacular boistinker affirmative action
  01/07/26
...
pale nursing home ape
  01/10/26


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 3:52 PM
Author: charismatic cerise locus gaming laptop

“This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”

“This market refers to U.S. military operations intended to establish control. President Trump’s statement that they will “run” Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion.”

https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025?tid=1767732697146

https://x.com/trader_53/status/2008545328824549664?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567156)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:35 PM
Author: bossy party of the first part

get a life you fucking dork

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567289)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:42 PM
Author: charismatic cerise locus gaming laptop

get off this bort you closeted fag

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567303)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM
Author: bossy party of the first part

you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you are a dick chopping tranny retard pedophile. the world would be better off if you'd just go away once and for all.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567306)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:03 PM
Author: charismatic cerise locus gaming laptop

you are literally a closeted fag

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567363)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 9:45 AM
Author: bossy party of the first part

you literally are jewishly projecting yet again.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49568632)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 3:56 PM
Author: crimson spectacular boistinker affirmative action

i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes". they defined it pretty broadly.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567168)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:29 PM
Author: Stimulating forum

LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking black bag what kind of bullshit is this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567271)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM
Author: white business firm

It's fraud they need to pay out

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567336)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM
Author: Floppy elastic band garrison

The market is about an "invasion." It's about taking and controlling territory. That hasn't happened. It still might by the end of the month.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567449)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:41 PM
Author: Zippy provocative mad-dog skullcap abode

The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of abducting its head of state was to establish control of Venezuela. The operation was successful

You are confusing the words "control" and "occupy"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567472)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM
Author: Floppy elastic band garrison

Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) does the US control? The US doesn't control Venezuela via an invasion any more than the US uses its power to influence a lot of countries.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567477)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM
Author: white business firm

Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the intent to deprive Venezuela of that territory. Even a peppercorn of time is enough.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567484)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM
Author: Floppy elastic band garrison

The market is for an invasion. The definition requires establishing control of a portion of territory.

Could you point on a map to which portion of Venezuelan territory the US invaded with the intent to control? You're right that it could be a small portion.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567491)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM
Author: Zippy provocative mad-dog skullcap abode

https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/styles/oe_theme_medium_no_crop/public/2019-02/venezuela_en.png?itok=aeBbLnHe

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567497)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM
Author: Zippy provocative mad-dog skullcap abode

The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls the country of Venezuela, as a statement of fact, as demonstrated by the fact that it can simply remove its nominal political "head of state" at will, whenever it wants, as it just did

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567492)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:33 PM
Author: stirring national

seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt intend to control any area of Venezuela, they captured its president and are pressuring the current government to do their will.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567286)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:43 PM
Author: charismatic cerise locus gaming laptop

(Peter Thiel)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567304)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM
Author: jet-lagged erotic state

yes its not like orange man said we run it now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567305)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:50 PM
Author: exhilarant underhanded clown

I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567316)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:57 PM
Author: white business firm

Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this? Maduro?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567341)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM
Author: charismatic cerise locus gaming laptop

usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting” but they removed that language since it would make it harder to screw over their traders

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567356)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM
Author: Floppy elastic band garrison



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567479)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:35 PM
Author: pea-brained misunderstood hall

cr

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567713)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:45 AM
Author: Pearl principal's office doctorate



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49568504)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:45 PM
Author: cerebral sooty jew deer antler

IRL Topicality moment

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567307)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:54 PM
Author: seedy sepia home



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567330)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM
Author: vermilion bateful shrine

companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhaustively draft out the terms of selling you toilet paper, and they still leave ambiguities. why would anyone ever expect that degens gambling on geopolitical upheavals described in a blurb with no transparency or accountability would be a good idea?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567334)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 4:59 PM
Author: white business firm

It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate when it arrested him, and the estate is located in Venezuela. Even if the control was only fleeting, it damn sure wasn't unintentional

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567348)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:02 PM
Author: vermilion bateful shrine

(guy who no longer has $1,600)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567360)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:13 PM
Author: stirring national



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567396)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 6:19 AM
Author: brass selfie



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49568389)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM
Author: nighttime racy dingle berry

It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after the fact. It's a feature.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567517)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:00 PM
Author: Zippy provocative mad-dog skullcap abode



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567526)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:11 PM
Author: white business firm

There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The terms are clear.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567542)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM
Author: Zippy provocative mad-dog skullcap abode

Obvious yes

But this is why you don't bet on stuff like this tbh. I wouldn't even put a substantial sum of money on an election on these platforms. You always run the risk of some Jewish bullshit like this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567354)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:33 PM
Author: Floppy elastic band garrison

This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterargument that isn't just based on feelings?

The market is "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?" And they define "invasion" as "a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela."

Dropping some special ops in for a limited time to extract the president is far from an invasion--i.e., an "offensive intended to establish control over" over territory. If there were boots on the ground to take and hold territory, it would be another thing. But there are not and have not been.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567445)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM
Author: stirring national

cr, not a close call imo

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567451)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:37 PM
Author: charismatic cerise locus gaming laptop

Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so clear that they even had to address it in their statement screwing people over. There must’ve been a huge whale or polymarket insider on the other side of that trade

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567465)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM
Author: Floppy elastic band garrison

The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said we're going to "lock Her up." Where are we on that?)

The market is for an invasion controlling Venezuelan territory. That hasn't happened.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567485)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM
Author: Zippy provocative mad-dog skullcap abode

Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567493)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM
Author: white business firm

This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela." Trump doesn't have to actually run anything, he only has to commence a military offensive with that intent. Having actual control is sufficient but not NECESSARY to prove intent.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567498)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:54 PM
Author: crimson spectacular boistinker affirmative action

this. it was a military offensive intended to establish control over caracas generally and at the very least maduro's residence for however long it was necessary in order to capture him.

the issue here is "control" and the time period it takes to constitute it. polymarket thought they were describing something more permanent and substantial, but they didn't spell that out and i think it's hard to argue that landing a bunch of helicopters into maduro's front yard, killing his security guards, and forcibly removing him wasn't taking "control" of his house which is a "portion" of venezuela. "intent" is there the minute you give the order.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567509)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM
Author: white business firm

Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acres of land in Venezuela for a period of some several minutes, and not by accident

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567514)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM
Author: white business firm

So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't make DHS pay full price for hotel rooms?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567489)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 6:10 PM
Author: Fishy mediation hell

are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling platform is being legalistic and dishonest? LOL.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567539)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:20 PM
Author: charismatic cerise locus gaming laptop

the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so it doesn’t really make sense for polymarket to screw over their users. they’re just a bookie. unless a polymarket insider or whale with connections was on the other side of the trade and pulled some strings. either way what they’re doing is dishonest. at a minimum they should not have titled the market “invade” if sending the military into foreign sovereign territory and arresting its president doesn’t count.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567682)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 7:31 PM
Author: cordovan library scourge upon the earth

If there was a breaking news report that “the us is invading Venezuela” no one would be like “but that already happened”.

The common sense version says this wasn’t an invasion and nothing in their terms is enough to override that.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567704)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:15 PM
Author: pale nursing home ape

His house was invaded (briefly)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567813)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:11 PM
Author: pale nursing home ape



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567795)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2026 8:17 PM
Author: thriller talking ticket booth

I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49567818)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 5:48 AM
Author: pale nursing home ape

I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49568381)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 7:59 AM
Author: charismatic cerise locus gaming laptop

Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game

https://x.com/dustingouker/status/2008748429024133125?s=46

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49568440)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:16 AM
Author: stirring national

now this is just a straight up scam

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49568452)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 8:18 AM
Author: white business firm

Is Polymarket still fucking over its users?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49568453)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:16 AM
Author: seedy sepia home

Just made 60,000 dollars

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49568707)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:29 AM
Author: pale nursing home ape

?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49568727)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2026 10:30 AM
Author: crimson spectacular boistinker affirmative action

i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" here. the terms are so broad even a child could make a reasonable argument for "yes".

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49568730)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 10th, 2026 10:01 PM
Author: pale nursing home ape



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2Vannesa#49579920)