Winners get exclusive rights to XO Retirement Home Foam Parties

---YES---

"cowgod180"

ricky (?)

Gen X Pumo (,.,.,.,.,.,.,..,:,,:,,.,:::,.,,.,:.,,.:.,:.,:.::,.)

HATP

---NO---

🧐

C. Doyle

gunneratttt

Leftism is a mental disease

lex

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5781910&forum_id=2Vannesa#49316773)

i wish he would be because he's such a shitty candidate, but some dark horse will emerge by 2028

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5781910&forum_id=2Vannesa#49316872)

1. Dems are really big on hierarchy. They rarely allow someone to usurp the pecking order. Notably the one to jump the queue was Obama and he was generational. Then Hillary got to go because she was in line first which pissed off Biden but he had to sit it out. Then Kamala who no one wanted but it was her Turn. Newsom is in line to the Throne. Only way he loses is to some generational talent imo. Don't forget that the superdelegates have this weird shadowy hand in ensuring the Hierarchy is Enforced.

2. Newsom literally represents the Dem base. Progressives still don't seem to meaningfully have the votes even if they have the zeitgeist and young people. How many times have we seen progressives flop? Think of who the median D voter is? It's not some 20 year old black Columbia student. It's a wealthy boomer couple in Westchester. Newsom is the current Democratic Id. He pays lip service to the progressive movement while mostly protecting the interests of rich coastal white people in suburban metros. That's what Democrats are today, it's what they were yesterday, and it's what they will be tomorrow.

Don't forget that once Ds settle on a candidate everyone falls into line and gets behind them. And the election is decided by like 10 swing voters in the middle every cycle. Gavin will lock down the boomers, he'll pay lip service to the progressives, everyone will fall into line, and he'll have a 50/50 shot at roping in the swing voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania what have you. He has a very good shot. Now compare that with an AOC type who freaks everyone out and makes lots of people uncomfortable. Odds on I think Gavin takes it and will be a coinflip to win the White House.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5781910&forum_id=2Vannesa#49316903)

GOP will have no shortage of hit material on Newsom and California. It won't matter to the Democratic voters but suspect some of you are relying on the old assumption of the better looking and taller candidate always winning (greatly exaggerated, as plenty of Clinton clones who went nowhere can tell you). Those old rules went out the window a long time ago in today's world. The pool of floating voters who'd swing from Trump to Newsom is incredibly small.

Can easily see a scenario where if Newsom does surprise Halperin and runs and maintains a slight lead in the media friendly polls all year only for the magical 5% missing GOP voters to turn out on election day and he goes down in defeat. Dems also have a structural deficit in the electoral college, which will worsen slightly in 2028. But Newsom doesn't seem like someone who'd run unless he was confident it was a slam dunk, he's not going to risk defeat, so he'll play the game and whet certain people's appetites till the last minute, then declare not running for family privacy. He won't offer himself as the sacrificial lamb for the sake of Democratic politics.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5781910&forum_id=2Vannesa#49316949)

Look at history: US Veeps who run after their Potus completed two full terms

Nixon

HW Bush

Gore

Biden

Three of them won... but only HW won on the heels of his potus's final term. Nixon and Biden had interruptions, and pretty significant cultural interruptions

Iow, I think it's really rare for US voters to want more of the same. This works against Vance. But Vance has something of another exception, because his potus had two term interrupted.

I dont think there's a chance in hell Pence/Vance/generic Trump Veep could have won in '24 on the heels of 8 years of Trump. The Reagan 80s were a *really* good time and people were willing to give the same people 12 years. That would not happen here.

But with Trump having been interrupted, will Vance not seem like years 9-12 of Trump? Maybe maybe.

The other variable is that the Dems are historically unpopular right now, I think ~26% approval rating. If they do not tame woke and shed the open-border shit, Vance could well take this.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5781910&forum_id=2Vannesa#49316996)