The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 12/10/15 |
| violet space | 12/12/15 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 01/02/17 |
| Rambunctious locus becky | 01/06/16 |
| Cracking twinkling cuckold | 01/06/16 |
| Cracking twinkling cuckold | 06/05/16 |
| Sable Wild Kitty Cat Milk | 03/26/16 |
| Violent Slate National Security Agency Rigor | 01/02/17 |
| concupiscible office stock car | 10/25/18 |
| Disrespectful Azure Dingle Berry | 12/10/15 |
| Ivory sex offender circlehead | 12/10/15 |
| offensive station | 12/10/15 |
| doobsian church chad | 12/10/15 |
| Dark crackhouse generalized bond | 12/15/15 |
| Passionate Orange Public Bath | 12/10/15 |
| hyperactive school wrinkle | 12/10/15 |
| Magenta Hateful Den Incel | 12/10/15 |
| Greedy Stubborn Personal Credit Line Home | 12/11/15 |
| provocative cream macaca | 12/12/15 |
| avocado aphrodisiac french chef | 12/16/15 |
| Vibrant background story | 01/04/16 |
| milky shitlib bawdyhouse | 11/09/16 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 12/11/15 |
| cerebral ungodly address karate | 12/11/15 |
| dashing lay | 12/11/15 |
| Greedy Stubborn Personal Credit Line Home | 12/11/15 |
| Domesticated property | 12/12/15 |
| Chocolate lascivious patrolman | 01/25/16 |
| Soul-stirring Site | 11/10/16 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 12/12/15 |
| impressive mad cow disease corner | 12/12/15 |
| Comical scarlet queen of the night tanning salon | 12/12/15 |
| Onyx Roommate | 12/12/15 |
| Razzmatazz skinny woman meetinghouse | 12/15/15 |
| pale filthy newt gaming laptop | 12/21/15 |
| Gaped bonkers resort | 12/12/15 |
| Shimmering set pervert | 12/12/15 |
| Fuchsia Adventurous Haunted Graveyard | 12/12/15 |
| pearl hairy legs heaven | 12/12/15 |
| Primrose Turdskin | 12/12/15 |
| Elite laughsome multi-billionaire | 12/12/15 |
| hyperactive school wrinkle | 12/15/15 |
| hyperactive school wrinkle | 12/16/15 |
| disturbing half-breed | 12/15/15 |
| Charismatic depressive whorehouse | 12/15/15 |
| demanding metal cruise ship fat ankles | 12/15/15 |
| Big Goal In Life | 12/15/15 |
| buck-toothed judgmental center double fault | 12/15/15 |
| Vigorous white useless brakes hell | 12/15/15 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 12/15/15 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 12/15/15 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 12/15/15 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 12/15/15 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 12/15/15 |
| brindle candlestick maker spot | 01/05/16 |
| Chocolate lascivious patrolman | 01/25/16 |
| rusted up-to-no-good trailer park love of her life | 12/17/16 |
| Bateful stage international law enforcement agency | 05/18/16 |
| diverse stage main people | 08/12/16 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 11/09/16 |
| tantric psychic kitty | 11/09/16 |
| walnut racy garrison | 11/09/16 |
| marvelous haunting associate nibblets | 10/22/20 |
| Glittery rehab | 12/15/15 |
| 180 parlour marketing idea | 12/16/15 |
| beady-eyed hot box office athletic conference | 12/16/15 |
| Dead electric national | 12/16/15 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 12/16/15 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 12/17/15 |
| Mint Nighttime Electric Furnace | 12/18/15 |
| Rambunctious locus becky | 01/06/16 |
| Kink-friendly sienna idiot base | 12/18/15 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 12/21/15 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 12/21/15 |
| pale filthy newt gaming laptop | 12/21/15 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 12/30/15 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 12/30/15 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 01/04/16 |
| Vibrant background story | 01/04/16 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 01/05/16 |
| Chocolate lascivious patrolman | 01/25/16 |
| Mint Nighttime Electric Furnace | 01/05/16 |
| grizzly legend | 01/05/16 |
| curious aggressive range keepsake machete | 01/05/16 |
| Transparent House Hominid | 01/05/16 |
| Sooty Spectacular Messiness | 01/05/16 |
| Transparent House Hominid | 01/05/16 |
| Rambunctious locus becky | 01/06/16 |
| Transparent House Hominid | 01/06/16 |
| Sooty Spectacular Messiness | 01/05/16 |
| diverse stage main people | 01/06/16 |
| pale filthy newt gaming laptop | 01/07/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 01/08/16 |
| Vengeful aromatic sanctuary | 01/08/16 |
| pale filthy newt gaming laptop | 01/08/16 |
| Mint Nighttime Electric Furnace | 01/09/16 |
| pale filthy newt gaming laptop | 01/10/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 01/18/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 01/19/16 |
| Mint Nighttime Electric Furnace | 01/21/16 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 01/25/16 |
| Razzle bronze business firm | 01/25/16 |
| Chocolate lascivious patrolman | 01/25/16 |
| Razzle bronze business firm | 02/09/16 |
| Vengeful aromatic sanctuary | 09/06/16 |
| Rambunctious locus becky | 11/05/18 |
| Medicated navy brunch telephone | 01/29/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 02/01/16 |
| maize university elastic band | 02/01/16 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 02/01/16 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 02/07/16 |
| grizzly legend | 02/09/16 |
| Aqua bisexual potus | 02/09/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 02/20/16 |
| excitant awkward senate coffee pot | 02/20/16 |
| Bateful stage international law enforcement agency | 02/24/16 |
| exciting black woman location | 02/24/16 |
| ruby mind-boggling theater | 02/27/16 |
| disturbing half-breed | 03/09/16 |
| bright volcanic crater | 03/15/16 |
| offensive station | 03/15/16 |
| Charismatic depressive whorehouse | 03/16/16 |
| Exhilarant kitchen | 02/24/16 |
| Plum really tough guy | 02/24/16 |
| Charismatic depressive whorehouse | 07/21/16 |
| wine high-end parlor | 02/24/16 |
| offensive station | 02/27/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 03/02/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 03/04/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 03/09/16 |
| grizzly legend | 03/09/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 03/15/16 |
| Bateful stage international law enforcement agency | 03/15/16 |
| cruel-hearted pit | 03/15/16 |
| Floppy slimy area sweet tailpipe | 03/15/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 03/16/16 |
| hyperactive school wrinkle | 03/16/16 |
| tantric psychic kitty | 03/23/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 03/23/16 |
| Fuchsia Adventurous Haunted Graveyard | 03/26/16 |
| Obsidian forum degenerate | 03/26/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 03/26/16 |
| brindle candlestick maker spot | 03/28/16 |
| tantric psychic kitty | 03/28/16 |
| Ivory sex offender circlehead | 03/28/16 |
| diverse stage main people | 08/12/16 |
| Rambunctious locus becky | 11/05/18 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 03/28/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 03/29/16 |
| irradiated indian lodge | 03/29/16 |
| irradiated indian lodge | 03/29/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 03/29/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 03/29/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 04/01/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 04/04/16 |
| irradiated indian lodge | 04/15/16 |
| yellow hairraiser hospital | 04/15/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 04/19/16 |
| Fishy Yapping Church Building | 04/20/16 |
| black stimulating shrine dragon | 04/20/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 04/24/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 04/25/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 04/26/16 |
| arousing hall | 04/26/16 |
| Mauve persian private investor | 04/30/16 |
| Silver Market Pisswyrm | 05/01/16 |
| Silver Market Pisswyrm | 11/07/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 05/02/16 |
| tantric psychic kitty | 05/02/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 05/03/16 |
| swashbuckling tan chapel trump supporter | 05/03/16 |
| Insane Stain Stead | 05/03/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 05/04/16 |
| Vengeful aromatic sanctuary | 05/04/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 05/05/16 |
| pearl hairy legs heaven | 05/05/16 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 05/05/16 |
| Plum really tough guy | 05/05/16 |
| impressive mad cow disease corner | 05/18/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 05/18/16 |
| Bateful stage international law enforcement agency | 05/18/16 |
| impressive mad cow disease corner | 05/18/16 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 05/29/16 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 06/20/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 06/29/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 07/14/16 |
| Amber fighting temple reading party | 07/15/16 |
| diverse stage main people | 07/15/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 07/17/16 |
| Vengeful aromatic sanctuary | 07/17/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 07/21/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 07/22/16 |
| Well-lubricated disgusting state | 07/22/16 |
| thriller geriatric nursing home immigrant | 07/23/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 07/24/16 |
| flesh gay wizard travel guidebook | 07/25/16 |
| irradiated indian lodge | 07/25/16 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 07/27/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 08/05/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 08/09/16 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 08/12/16 |
| Vengeful aromatic sanctuary | 08/12/16 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 08/12/16 |
| Brilliant Theater Stage | 08/12/16 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 08/30/16 |
| Vengeful aromatic sanctuary | 08/30/16 |
| Vengeful aromatic sanctuary | 09/06/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 09/13/16 |
| irradiated indian lodge | 09/14/16 |
| Gaped bonkers resort | 09/14/16 |
| Talented sapphire mother orchestra pit | 09/15/16 |
| pungent trip son of senegal | 09/15/16 |
| Cracking twinkling cuckold | 09/15/16 |
| translucent native | 09/15/16 |
| clear institution | 09/15/16 |
| Titillating antidepressant drug | 09/19/16 |
| Titillating antidepressant drug | 09/19/16 |
| Vengeful aromatic sanctuary | 09/27/16 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 09/24/16 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 09/27/16 |
| Vengeful aromatic sanctuary | 09/27/16 |
| hyperactive school wrinkle | 09/27/16 |
| motley lodge | 10/08/16 |
| heady ladyboy | 07/29/24 |
| irradiated indian lodge | 09/28/16 |
| Gaped bonkers resort | 09/28/16 |
| Vengeful aromatic sanctuary | 09/28/16 |
| black stimulating shrine dragon | 09/28/16 |
| yellow hairraiser hospital | 09/28/16 |
| pontificating odious school cafeteria pozpig | 10/08/16 |
| Vengeful aromatic sanctuary | 10/09/16 |
| Fragrant stag film | 10/09/16 |
| Vengeful aromatic sanctuary | 10/09/16 |
| opaque pea-brained mexican | 10/09/16 |
| irradiated indian lodge | 10/10/16 |
| flesh gay wizard travel guidebook | 10/30/16 |
| diverse stage main people | 11/01/16 |
| translucent native | 11/01/16 |
| Sepia galvanic library wagecucks | 11/02/16 |
| Big Goal In Life | 11/02/16 |
| irradiated indian lodge | 11/07/16 |
| appetizing dysfunction | 11/08/16 |
| irradiated indian lodge | 11/08/16 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 11/08/16 |
| irradiated indian lodge | 11/08/16 |
| very tactful cordovan dilemma organic girlfriend | 11/08/16 |
| rough-skinned stirring faggot firefighter | 11/08/16 |
| maize university elastic band | 11/08/16 |
| Titillating antidepressant drug | 11/08/16 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 11/08/16 |
| Zippy umber gaping principal's office | 11/09/16 |
| Talented sapphire mother orchestra pit | 11/09/16 |
| saffron idea he suggested juggernaut | 11/09/16 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 11/09/16 |
| translucent native | 11/09/16 |
| Zippy umber gaping principal's office | 11/09/16 |
| flesh gay wizard travel guidebook | 11/09/16 |
| pearl hairy legs heaven | 11/09/16 |
| razzle-dazzle point preventive strike | 12/03/16 |
| Soul-stirring Site | 12/07/16 |
| rusted up-to-no-good trailer park love of her life | 12/17/16 |
| boyish indecent sandwich theatre | 10/11/24 |
| lilac field regret | 11/09/16 |
| Multi-colored gunner | 11/09/16 |
| ebony menage death wish | 11/09/16 |
| seedy arrogant deer antler locale | 11/09/16 |
| razzle-dazzle point preventive strike | 11/09/16 |
| diverse stage main people | 11/09/16 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 11/09/16 |
| impressive mad cow disease corner | 11/09/16 |
| Vengeful aromatic sanctuary | 11/09/16 |
| Jet-lagged erotic piazza | 11/09/16 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 11/09/16 |
| Contagious Clown Abode | 11/09/16 |
| Wonderful plaza | 11/09/16 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 11/09/16 |
| doobsian church chad | 11/09/16 |
| Kink-friendly sienna idiot base | 11/10/16 |
| Razzle bronze business firm | 11/10/16 |
| Cracking twinkling cuckold | 11/10/16 |
| Iridescent Supple Toilet Seat Legal Warrant | 11/10/16 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 11/10/16 |
| irradiated indian lodge | 11/10/16 |
| excitant awkward senate coffee pot | 11/10/16 |
| Titillating antidepressant drug | 11/14/16 |
| twisted ticket booth mediation | 11/14/16 |
| jewess | 12/04/16 |
| rusted up-to-no-good trailer park love of her life | 12/17/16 |
| boyish indecent sandwich theatre | 10/11/24 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 11/25/16 |
| Frozen mental disorder gas station | 12/03/16 |
| opaque pea-brained mexican | 12/04/16 |
| crystalline casino tank | 12/07/16 |
| Cracking twinkling cuckold | 12/07/16 |
| Frozen mental disorder gas station | 12/07/16 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 01/02/17 |
| Turquoise partner | 01/02/17 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 01/02/17 |
| Turquoise partner | 01/02/17 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 03/03/20 |
| Cracking twinkling cuckold | 01/02/17 |
| tantric psychic kitty | 01/16/17 |
| Turquoise partner | 01/20/17 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 01/20/17 |
| Turquoise partner | 01/23/17 |
| pontificating odious school cafeteria pozpig | 01/23/17 |
| Turquoise partner | 01/23/17 |
| Duck-like cobalt jew | 01/23/17 |
| pontificating odious school cafeteria pozpig | 01/23/17 |
| Turquoise partner | 01/23/17 |
| Turquoise partner | 01/25/17 |
| Turquoise partner | 01/26/17 |
| Turquoise partner | 02/06/17 |
| Turquoise partner | 02/13/17 |
| Turquoise partner | 02/27/17 |
| Turquoise partner | 05/03/17 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 05/03/17 |
| Turquoise partner | 09/21/17 |
| offensive station | 01/23/17 |
| translucent native | 02/27/17 |
| Rambunctious locus becky | 03/22/17 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 04/17/17 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 05/08/17 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 06/20/17 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 08/10/17 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 10/15/17 |
| tantric psychic kitty | 10/15/17 |
| olive | 10/15/17 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 11/06/17 |
| Purple masturbator | 11/06/17 |
| frum pocket flask | 11/08/17 |
| embarrassed to the bone | 11/08/17 |
| irate cyan roast beef | 11/13/17 |
| tantric psychic kitty | 12/18/17 |
| Vengeful aromatic sanctuary | 12/18/17 |
| tantric psychic kitty | 12/18/17 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 01/30/18 |
| Cracking twinkling cuckold | 06/01/18 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 07/18/18 |
| tantric psychic kitty | 07/19/18 |
| clear institution | 09/20/18 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 09/25/18 |
| Ivory sex offender circlehead | 10/06/18 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 10/06/18 |
| Cracking twinkling cuckold | 10/25/18 |
| pungent trip son of senegal | 10/25/18 |
| Chocolate lascivious patrolman | 11/05/18 |
| Cracking twinkling cuckold | 11/05/18 |
| Rambunctious locus becky | 11/05/18 |
| Cracking twinkling cuckold | 11/05/18 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 01/08/19 |
| costumed crotch | 02/23/19 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 03/13/19 |
| Chocolate lascivious patrolman | 06/24/19 |
| dun crusty | 06/24/19 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 11/18/19 |
| translucent native | 02/12/20 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 02/12/20 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 03/24/20 |
| talking rigpig | 03/24/20 |
| Amber fighting temple reading party | 04/04/20 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 04/26/20 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 05/13/20 |
| Amber fighting temple reading party | 06/05/20 |
| citrine quadroon | 06/05/20 |
| Amber fighting temple reading party | 09/09/20 |
| translucent native | 09/09/20 |
| Disrespectful Azure Dingle Berry | 09/09/20 |
| Underhanded Codepig | 09/12/20 |
| dull jap | 09/24/20 |
| dun crusty | 10/09/20 |
| tantric psychic kitty | 10/10/20 |
| vermilion giraffe | 10/22/20 |
| razzle-dazzle point preventive strike | 10/22/20 |
| marvelous haunting associate nibblets | 10/22/20 |
| marvelous haunting associate nibblets | 10/22/20 |
| zombie-like boiling water | 03/23/22 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 10/27/20 |
| Rambunctious locus becky | 10/27/20 |
| dun crusty | 10/30/20 |
| tantric psychic kitty | 11/03/20 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 03/22/22 |
| flirting | 03/23/22 |
| sexy mood | 03/23/22 |
| Pearly Place Of Business | 03/23/22 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 07/25/22 |
| Disrespectful Azure Dingle Berry | 07/25/22 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 10/23/22 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 11/16/22 |
| histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt | 04/25/23 |
| impressive mad cow disease corner | 04/25/23 |
| dull jap | 04/29/23 |
| heady ladyboy | 05/28/23 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 02/22/24 |
| dull jap | 02/23/24 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 05/23/24 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 08/26/24 |
| dull jap | 09/13/24 |
| Disrespectful Azure Dingle Berry | 09/13/24 |
| dull jap | 10/18/24 |
| boyish indecent sandwich theatre | 10/11/24 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 11/06/24 |
| pearl hairy legs heaven | 03/04/25 |
| pearl hairy legs heaven | 03/04/25 |
| clear institution | 03/04/25 |
| boyish indecent sandwich theatre | 03/04/25 |
| 03/04/25 |
| hairless factory reset button | 03/05/25 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 03/07/25 |
| ceo | 03/07/25 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 03/08/25 |
| Orchid Mad-dog Skullcap | 03/08/25 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 03/08/25 |
| offensive station | 02/18/26 |
| vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground | 05/15/26 |
| cheese-eating bat-shit-crazy dog poop internal respiration | 05/17/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: violet space (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Rambunctious locus becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Cracking twinkling cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Cracking twinkling cuckold another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Sable Wild Kitty Cat Milk 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: Violent Slate National Security Agency Rigor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: concupiscible office stock car "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Disrespectful Azure Dingle Berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: Ivory sex offender circlehead 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: offensive station 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: doobsian church chad Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: Dark crackhouse generalized bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: Passionate Orange Public Bath FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: hyperactive school wrinkle Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Magenta Hateful Den Incel Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Greedy Stubborn Personal Credit Line Home (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: provocative cream macaca Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: avocado aphrodisiac french chef Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Vibrant background story Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: milky shitlib bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: cerebral ungodly address karate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29359818) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: dashing lay 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29359849) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: Greedy Stubborn Personal Credit Line Home November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Domesticated property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364617) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Chocolate lascivious patrolman Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29677834) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: Soul-stirring Site (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31866880) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: impressive mad cow disease corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364621) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Comical scarlet queen of the night tanning salon lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: Onyx Roommate March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Razzmatazz skinny woman meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: pale filthy newt gaming laptop 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: Gaped bonkers resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364847) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: Shimmering set pervert lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Fuchsia Adventurous Haunted Graveyard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364887) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: pearl hairy legs heaven (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364890) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Primrose Turdskin Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Elite laughsome multi-billionaire Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: hyperactive school wrinkle OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: hyperactive school wrinkle And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: disturbing half-breed 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Charismatic depressive whorehouse fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: demanding metal cruise ship fat ankles I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: Big Goal In Life 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: buck-toothed judgmental center double fault February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Vigorous white useless brakes hell You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: brindle candlestick maker spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Chocolate lascivious patrolman Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: rusted up-to-no-good trailer park love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: Bateful stage international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: diverse stage main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: tantric psychic kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: walnut racy garrison Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: marvelous haunting associate nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Glittery rehab This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: 180 parlour marketing idea 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: beady-eyed hot box office athletic conference (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: Dead electric national Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: Mint Nighttime Electric Furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Rambunctious locus becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Kink-friendly sienna idiot base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: pale filthy newt gaming laptop 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Vibrant background story flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Chocolate lascivious patrolman Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: Mint Nighttime Electric Furnace From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: grizzly legend 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: curious aggressive range keepsake machete (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Transparent House Hominid An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Sooty Spectacular Messiness 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: Transparent House Hominid I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: Rambunctious locus becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: Transparent House Hominid Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Sooty Spectacular Messiness No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: diverse stage main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: pale filthy newt gaming laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Vengeful aromatic sanctuary 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: pale filthy newt gaming laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: Mint Nighttime Electric Furnace http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: pale filthy newt gaming laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: Mint Nighttime Electric Furnace looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: Rambunctious locus becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: irradiated indian lodge "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: irradiated indian lodge interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: yellow hairraiser hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30279158) |
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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30307876) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: Silver Market Pisswyrm Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: Silver Market Pisswyrm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: tantric psychic kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: Insane Stain Stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30402170) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30405223) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Vengeful aromatic sanctuary 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30405346) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: pearl hairy legs heaven Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Plum really tough guy Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: impressive mad cow disease corner This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Bateful stage international law enforcement agency In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: impressive mad cow disease corner cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Amber fighting temple reading party (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: diverse stage main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Vengeful aromatic sanctuary 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: Well-lubricated disgusting state (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: thriller geriatric nursing home immigrant Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: flesh gay wizard travel guidebook Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: irradiated indian lodge amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Vengeful aromatic sanctuary holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Brilliant Theater Stage LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Vengeful aromatic sanctuary 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Vengeful aromatic sanctuary lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: irradiated indian lodge ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Gaped bonkers resort Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Talented sapphire mother orchestra pit September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: pungent trip son of senegal September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Cracking twinkling cuckold god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: translucent native XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: clear institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Titillating antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Titillating antidepressant drug The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Vengeful aromatic sanctuary let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Vengeful aromatic sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: hyperactive school wrinkle This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: motley lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: heady ladyboy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: irradiated indian lodge http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Gaped bonkers resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Vengeful aromatic sanctuary 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: black stimulating shrine dragon This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: yellow hairraiser hospital (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: pontificating odious school cafeteria pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Vengeful aromatic sanctuary hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Fragrant stag film Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Vengeful aromatic sanctuary doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: opaque pea-brained mexican half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: irradiated indian lodge nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: flesh gay wizard travel guidebook close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: diverse stage main people Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: translucent native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Sepia galvanic library wagecucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: Big Goal In Life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: irradiated indian lodge prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: appetizing dysfunction You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: irradiated indian lodge true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: irradiated indian lodge ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: very tactful cordovan dilemma organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: rough-skinned stirring faggot firefighter Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: maize university elastic band (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: Titillating antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: Zippy umber gaping principal's office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Talented sapphire mother orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: saffron idea he suggested juggernaut (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: translucent native GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: Zippy umber gaping principal's office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: flesh gay wizard travel guidebook it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: pearl hairy legs heaven (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: razzle-dazzle point preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Soul-stirring Site (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: rusted up-to-no-good trailer park love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: boyish indecent sandwich theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: lilac field regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Multi-colored gunner Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: ebony menage death wish (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: seedy arrogant deer antler locale 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: razzle-dazzle point preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: diverse stage main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: impressive mad cow disease corner this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Vengeful aromatic sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: Jet-lagged erotic piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Contagious Clown Abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Wonderful plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: doobsian church chad you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Kink-friendly sienna idiot base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Razzle bronze business firm Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Cracking twinkling cuckold bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: Iridescent Supple Toilet Seat Legal Warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: irradiated indian lodge ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: excitant awkward senate coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Titillating antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: twisted ticket booth mediation They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: jewess Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: rusted up-to-no-good trailer park love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: boyish indecent sandwich theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: Frozen mental disorder gas station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: opaque pea-brained mexican GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: crystalline casino tank https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Cracking twinkling cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: Frozen mental disorder gas station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Turquoise partner October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Turquoise partner ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Cracking twinkling cuckold truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: tantric psychic kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Turquoise partner https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Turquoise partner http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: pontificating odious school cafeteria pozpig TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Turquoise partner It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: Duck-like cobalt jew I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: pontificating odious school cafeteria pozpig it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Turquoise partner The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Turquoise partner https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Turquoise partner https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Turquoise partner https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Turquoise partner https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Turquoise partner https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Turquoise partner https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Turquoise partner https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: offensive station this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: translucent native One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Rambunctious locus becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: tantric psychic kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: olive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Purple masturbator credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: frum pocket flask (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: embarrassed to the bone (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: irate cyan roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: tantric psychic kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Vengeful aromatic sanctuary Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: tantric psychic kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Cracking twinkling cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: tantric psychic kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: clear institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Ivory sex offender circlehead It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Cracking twinkling cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: pungent trip son of senegal Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Chocolate lascivious patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Cracking twinkling cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Rambunctious locus becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Cracking twinkling cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: costumed crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Chocolate lascivious patrolman There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: dun crusty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: translucent native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: talking rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Amber fighting temple reading party (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Amber fighting temple reading party (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: citrine quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Amber fighting temple reading party (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: translucent native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Disrespectful Azure Dingle Berry Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: Underhanded Codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: dull jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: dun crusty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: tantric psychic kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: vermilion giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: razzle-dazzle point preventive strike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: marvelous haunting associate nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: marvelous haunting associate nibblets https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: zombie-like boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Rambunctious locus becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: dun crusty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: tantric psychic kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: flirting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: sexy mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: Pearly Place Of Business 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Disrespectful Azure Dingle Berry A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: histrionic godawful weed whacker people who are hurt https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: impressive mad cow disease corner why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: dull jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: heady ladyboy FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: dull jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: dull jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Disrespectful Azure Dingle Berry One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: dull jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: boyish indecent sandwich theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: pearl hairy legs heaven 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: pearl hairy legs heaven https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: clear institution Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: boyish indecent sandwich theatre The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: hairless factory reset button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: ceo 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: Orchid Mad-dog Skullcap Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: offensive station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: vivacious naked step-uncle's house hunting ground ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
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Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: cheese-eating bat-shit-crazy dog poop internal respiration i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |