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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 12/10/15 |
| Jade main people | 12/12/15 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 01/02/17 |
| bossy turquoise sweet tailpipe circlehead | 01/06/16 |
| Sadistic swashbuckling site friendly grandma | 01/06/16 |
| Sadistic swashbuckling site friendly grandma | 06/05/16 |
| Ultramarine Hell Hairy Legs | 03/26/16 |
| Brass university genital piercing | 01/02/17 |
| Galvanic violent dilemma dysfunction | 10/25/18 |
| Chest-beating saffron goal in life | 12/10/15 |
| Spectacular market mediation | 12/10/15 |
| Lime marketing idea | 12/10/15 |
| vermilion useless brakes | 12/10/15 |
| Racy crimson stag film | 12/15/15 |
| Godawful office nibblets | 12/10/15 |
| Chartreuse confused area cumskin | 12/10/15 |
| Dark property | 12/10/15 |
| Provocative lilac digit ratio | 12/11/15 |
| milky base | 12/12/15 |
| coral black woman | 12/16/15 |
| Spruce windowlicker cruise ship | 01/04/16 |
| wine personal credit line scourge upon the earth | 11/09/16 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 12/11/15 |
| heady spot boltzmann | 12/11/15 |
| Charcoal odious house turdskin | 12/11/15 |
| Provocative lilac digit ratio | 12/11/15 |
| Self-absorbed internal respiration police squad | 12/12/15 |
| Aphrodisiac dopamine | 01/25/16 |
| Flesh resort | 11/10/16 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 12/12/15 |
| drab demanding hall roast beef | 12/12/15 |
| Fear-inspiring puppy | 12/12/15 |
| mentally impaired grizzly dragon national security agency | 12/12/15 |
| Blathering charismatic gaping striped hyena | 12/15/15 |
| Thriller domesticated reading party | 12/21/15 |
| light stimulating party of the first part | 12/12/15 |
| slap-happy giraffe | 12/12/15 |
| gold brunch | 12/12/15 |
| hairless alpha kitchen | 12/12/15 |
| fluffy walnut business firm | 12/12/15 |
| twisted irradiated abode stock car | 12/12/15 |
| Chartreuse confused area cumskin | 12/15/15 |
| Chartreuse confused area cumskin | 12/16/15 |
| Slate jew rigpig | 12/15/15 |
| Ebony Shrine Filthpig | 12/15/15 |
| nofapping trailer park juggernaut | 12/15/15 |
| 180 pit hunting ground | 12/15/15 |
| bipolar crotch theatre | 12/15/15 |
| High-end mischievous range | 12/15/15 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 12/15/15 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 12/15/15 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 12/15/15 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 12/15/15 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 12/15/15 |
| Lascivious Public Bath Feces | 01/05/16 |
| Aphrodisiac dopamine | 01/25/16 |
| Hyperventilating Twinkling Uncleanness School Cafeteria | 12/17/16 |
| Doobsian kitty cat rehab | 05/18/16 |
| French fragrant really tough guy | 08/12/16 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 11/09/16 |
| alcoholic station | 11/09/16 |
| Unhinged beady-eyed home | 11/09/16 |
| Hideous Whorehouse | 10/22/20 |
| arousing set | 12/15/15 |
| razzmatazz temple | 12/16/15 |
| Splenetic pontificating den | 12/16/15 |
| Opaque razzle parlor sound barrier | 12/16/15 |
| Cerebral Point | 12/16/15 |
| Cerebral Point | 12/17/15 |
| titillating national | 12/18/15 |
| bossy turquoise sweet tailpipe circlehead | 01/06/16 |
| Marvelous Brethren | 12/18/15 |
| Cerebral Point | 12/21/15 |
| Cerebral Point | 12/21/15 |
| Thriller domesticated reading party | 12/21/15 |
| Cerebral Point | 12/30/15 |
| Cerebral Point | 12/30/15 |
| Cerebral Point | 01/04/16 |
| Spruce windowlicker cruise ship | 01/04/16 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 01/05/16 |
| Aphrodisiac dopamine | 01/25/16 |
| titillating national | 01/05/16 |
| learning disabled smoky theater stage philosopher-king | 01/05/16 |
| Dull garrison | 01/05/16 |
| comical shitlib | 01/05/16 |
| Glittery lay ceo | 01/05/16 |
| comical shitlib | 01/05/16 |
| bossy turquoise sweet tailpipe circlehead | 01/06/16 |
| comical shitlib | 01/06/16 |
| Glittery lay ceo | 01/05/16 |
| French fragrant really tough guy | 01/06/16 |
| Thriller domesticated reading party | 01/07/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 01/08/16 |
| contagious heaven | 01/08/16 |
| Thriller domesticated reading party | 01/08/16 |
| titillating national | 01/09/16 |
| Thriller domesticated reading party | 01/10/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 01/18/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 01/19/16 |
| titillating national | 01/21/16 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 01/25/16 |
| Primrose background story | 01/25/16 |
| Aphrodisiac dopamine | 01/25/16 |
| Primrose background story | 02/09/16 |
| contagious heaven | 09/06/16 |
| bossy turquoise sweet tailpipe circlehead | 11/05/18 |
| Silver newt church building | 01/29/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 02/01/16 |
| Deranged parlour | 02/01/16 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 02/01/16 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 02/07/16 |
| learning disabled smoky theater stage philosopher-king | 02/09/16 |
| Pea-brained Violent Corner Pisswyrm | 02/09/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 02/20/16 |
| Shimmering Vibrant Meetinghouse | 02/20/16 |
| Doobsian kitty cat rehab | 02/24/16 |
| Carnelian Razzle-dazzle French Chef Chapel | 02/24/16 |
| Flickering Impertinent Address Mad-dog Skullcap | 02/27/16 |
| Slate jew rigpig | 03/09/16 |
| Supple Bawdyhouse Double Fault | 03/15/16 |
| Lime marketing idea | 03/15/16 |
| Ebony Shrine Filthpig | 03/16/16 |
| boyish rigor forum | 02/24/16 |
| trip snowy orchestra pit water buffalo | 02/24/16 |
| Ebony Shrine Filthpig | 07/21/16 |
| Hairraiser therapy mood | 02/24/16 |
| Lime marketing idea | 02/27/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 03/02/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 03/04/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 03/09/16 |
| learning disabled smoky theater stage philosopher-king | 03/09/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 03/15/16 |
| Doobsian kitty cat rehab | 03/15/16 |
| sexy center antidepressant drug | 03/15/16 |
| vivacious burgundy sneaky criminal | 03/15/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 03/16/16 |
| Chartreuse confused area cumskin | 03/16/16 |
| alcoholic station | 03/23/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 03/23/16 |
| gold brunch | 03/26/16 |
| Mustard laser beams school | 03/26/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 03/26/16 |
| Lascivious Public Bath Feces | 03/28/16 |
| alcoholic station | 03/28/16 |
| Spectacular market mediation | 03/28/16 |
| French fragrant really tough guy | 08/12/16 |
| bossy turquoise sweet tailpipe circlehead | 11/05/18 |
| Cerebral Point | 03/28/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 03/29/16 |
| mahogany menage | 03/29/16 |
| mahogany menage | 03/29/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 03/29/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 03/29/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 04/01/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 04/04/16 |
| mahogany menage | 04/15/16 |
| lake passionate casino faggot firefighter | 04/15/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 04/19/16 |
| adventurous trump supporter native | 04/20/16 |
| Cheese-eating brindle library becky | 04/20/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 04/24/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 04/25/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 04/26/16 |
| cracking federal step-uncle's house | 04/26/16 |
| curious frum half-breed gas station | 04/30/16 |
| Slimy blue locus | 05/01/16 |
| Slimy blue locus | 11/07/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 05/02/16 |
| alcoholic station | 05/02/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 05/03/16 |
| Diverse sick associate | 05/03/16 |
| Cream Kink-friendly Pocket Flask | 05/03/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 05/04/16 |
| contagious heaven | 05/04/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 05/05/16 |
| hairless alpha kitchen | 05/05/16 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 05/05/16 |
| trip snowy orchestra pit water buffalo | 05/05/16 |
| drab demanding hall roast beef | 05/18/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 05/18/16 |
| Doobsian kitty cat rehab | 05/18/16 |
| drab demanding hall roast beef | 05/18/16 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 05/29/16 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 06/20/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 06/29/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 07/14/16 |
| aggressive obsidian stain | 07/15/16 |
| French fragrant really tough guy | 07/15/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 07/17/16 |
| contagious heaven | 07/17/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 07/21/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 07/22/16 |
| orange embarrassed to the bone institution ladyboy | 07/22/16 |
| bull headed concupiscible piazza trust fund | 07/23/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 07/24/16 |
| Olive Stage Blood Rage | 07/25/16 |
| mahogany menage | 07/25/16 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 07/27/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 08/05/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 08/09/16 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 08/12/16 |
| contagious heaven | 08/12/16 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 08/12/16 |
| onyx multi-colored tanning salon | 08/12/16 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 08/30/16 |
| contagious heaven | 08/30/16 |
| contagious heaven | 09/06/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 09/13/16 |
| mahogany menage | 09/14/16 |
| light stimulating party of the first part | 09/14/16 |
| Bateful house-broken halford | 09/15/16 |
| Electric senate volcanic crater | 09/15/16 |
| Sadistic swashbuckling site friendly grandma | 09/15/16 |
| Red fortuitous meteor | 09/15/16 |
| Tantric old irish cottage stage | 09/15/16 |
| autistic frozen locale death wish | 09/19/16 |
| autistic frozen locale death wish | 09/19/16 |
| contagious heaven | 09/27/16 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 09/24/16 |
| Cerebral Point | 09/27/16 |
| contagious heaven | 09/27/16 |
| Chartreuse confused area cumskin | 09/27/16 |
| Claret soul-stirring stead prole | 10/08/16 |
| Vigorous Bronze Crackhouse Depressive | 07/29/24 |
| mahogany menage | 09/28/16 |
| light stimulating party of the first part | 09/28/16 |
| contagious heaven | 09/28/16 |
| Cheese-eating brindle library becky | 09/28/16 |
| lake passionate casino faggot firefighter | 09/28/16 |
| excitant ivory nursing home sex offender | 10/08/16 |
| contagious heaven | 10/09/16 |
| scarlet new version | 10/09/16 |
| contagious heaven | 10/09/16 |
| bright hospital | 10/09/16 |
| mahogany menage | 10/10/16 |
| Olive Stage Blood Rage | 10/30/16 |
| French fragrant really tough guy | 11/01/16 |
| Red fortuitous meteor | 11/01/16 |
| Useless brilliant headpube | 11/02/16 |
| 180 pit hunting ground | 11/02/16 |
| mahogany menage | 11/07/16 |
| yapping sanctuary cuck | 11/08/16 |
| mahogany menage | 11/08/16 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 11/08/16 |
| mahogany menage | 11/08/16 |
| Big principal's office telephone | 11/08/16 |
| Swollen Patrolman Field | 11/08/16 |
| Deranged parlour | 11/08/16 |
| autistic frozen locale death wish | 11/08/16 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 11/08/16 |
| exciting mint candlestick maker | 11/09/16 |
| Bateful house-broken halford | 11/09/16 |
| misunderstood effete church | 11/09/16 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 11/09/16 |
| Red fortuitous meteor | 11/09/16 |
| exciting mint candlestick maker | 11/09/16 |
| Olive Stage Blood Rage | 11/09/16 |
| hairless alpha kitchen | 11/09/16 |
| stirring bearded boiling water yarmulke | 12/03/16 |
| Flesh resort | 12/07/16 |
| Hyperventilating Twinkling Uncleanness School Cafeteria | 12/17/16 |
| Pearl Motley Indirect Expression | 10/11/24 |
| histrionic location | 11/09/16 |
| Gay plaza mad cow disease | 11/09/16 |
| laughsome preventive strike community account | 11/09/16 |
| Fuchsia Painfully Honest Quadroon | 11/09/16 |
| stirring bearded boiling water yarmulke | 11/09/16 |
| French fragrant really tough guy | 11/09/16 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 11/09/16 |
| drab demanding hall roast beef | 11/09/16 |
| contagious heaven | 11/09/16 |
| Big-titted Wonderful Space Multi-billionaire | 11/09/16 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 11/09/16 |
| Amethyst Theater | 11/09/16 |
| Umber Exhilarant Corn Cake Doctorate | 11/09/16 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 11/09/16 |
| vermilion useless brakes | 11/09/16 |
| Marvelous Brethren | 11/10/16 |
| Primrose background story | 11/10/16 |
| Sadistic swashbuckling site friendly grandma | 11/10/16 |
| infuriating talented lodge son of senegal | 11/10/16 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 11/10/16 |
| mahogany menage | 11/10/16 |
| Shimmering Vibrant Meetinghouse | 11/10/16 |
| autistic frozen locale death wish | 11/14/16 |
| Cyan legal warrant indian lodge | 11/14/16 |
| Dashing Gunner | 12/04/16 |
| Hyperventilating Twinkling Uncleanness School Cafeteria | 12/17/16 |
| Pearl Motley Indirect Expression | 10/11/24 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 11/25/16 |
| mind-boggling haunting wrinkle milk | 12/03/16 |
| bright hospital | 12/04/16 |
| Flatulent state | 12/07/16 |
| Sadistic swashbuckling site friendly grandma | 12/07/16 |
| mind-boggling haunting wrinkle milk | 12/07/16 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 01/02/17 |
| appetizing toilet seat | 01/02/17 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 01/02/17 |
| appetizing toilet seat | 01/02/17 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 03/03/20 |
| Sadistic swashbuckling site friendly grandma | 01/02/17 |
| alcoholic station | 01/16/17 |
| appetizing toilet seat | 01/20/17 |
| Cerebral Point | 01/20/17 |
| appetizing toilet seat | 01/23/17 |
| excitant ivory nursing home sex offender | 01/23/17 |
| appetizing toilet seat | 01/23/17 |
| pale floppy box office gaming laptop | 01/23/17 |
| excitant ivory nursing home sex offender | 01/23/17 |
| appetizing toilet seat | 01/23/17 |
| appetizing toilet seat | 01/25/17 |
| appetizing toilet seat | 01/26/17 |
| appetizing toilet seat | 02/06/17 |
| appetizing toilet seat | 02/13/17 |
| appetizing toilet seat | 02/27/17 |
| appetizing toilet seat | 05/03/17 |
| Cerebral Point | 05/03/17 |
| appetizing toilet seat | 09/21/17 |
| Lime marketing idea | 01/23/17 |
| Red fortuitous meteor | 02/27/17 |
| bossy turquoise sweet tailpipe circlehead | 03/22/17 |
| Cerebral Point | 04/17/17 |
| Cerebral Point | 05/08/17 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 06/20/17 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 08/10/17 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 10/15/17 |
| alcoholic station | 10/15/17 |
| fishy goyim | 10/15/17 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 11/06/17 |
| Territorial aromatic | 11/06/17 |
| Iridescent dingle berry | 11/08/17 |
| Pozpig | 11/08/17 |
| navy queen of the night | 11/13/17 |
| alcoholic station | 12/18/17 |
| contagious heaven | 12/18/17 |
| alcoholic station | 12/18/17 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 01/30/18 |
| Sadistic swashbuckling site friendly grandma | 06/01/18 |
| Cerebral Point | 07/18/18 |
| alcoholic station | 07/19/18 |
| Tantric old irish cottage stage | 09/20/18 |
| Cerebral Point | 09/25/18 |
| Spectacular market mediation | 10/06/18 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 10/06/18 |
| Sadistic swashbuckling site friendly grandma | 10/25/18 |
| Electric senate volcanic crater | 10/25/18 |
| Aphrodisiac dopamine | 11/05/18 |
| Sadistic swashbuckling site friendly grandma | 11/05/18 |
| bossy turquoise sweet tailpipe circlehead | 11/05/18 |
| Sadistic swashbuckling site friendly grandma | 11/05/18 |
| Cerebral Point | 01/08/19 |
| filthy cerise mexican mother | 02/23/19 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 03/13/19 |
| Aphrodisiac dopamine | 06/24/19 |
| Selfie | 06/24/19 |
| Cerebral Point | 11/18/19 |
| Red fortuitous meteor | 02/12/20 |
| Cerebral Point | 02/12/20 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 03/24/20 |
| Slippery Liquid Oxygen | 03/24/20 |
| aggressive obsidian stain | 04/04/20 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 04/26/20 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 05/13/20 |
| aggressive obsidian stain | 06/05/20 |
| lettuce | 06/05/20 |
| aggressive obsidian stain | 09/09/20 |
| Red fortuitous meteor | 09/09/20 |
| Chest-beating saffron goal in life | 09/09/20 |
| duck-like idea he suggested | 09/12/20 |
| flushed clown | 09/24/20 |
| Selfie | 10/09/20 |
| alcoholic station | 10/10/20 |
| aqua startled | 10/22/20 |
| stirring bearded boiling water yarmulke | 10/22/20 |
| Hideous Whorehouse | 10/22/20 |
| Hideous Whorehouse | 10/22/20 |
| Tripping cuckold | 03/23/22 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 10/27/20 |
| bossy turquoise sweet tailpipe circlehead | 10/27/20 |
| Selfie | 10/30/20 |
| alcoholic station | 11/03/20 |
| Cerebral Point | 03/22/22 |
| fighting regret international law enforcement agency | 03/23/22 |
| Low-t round eye weed whacker | 03/23/22 |
| Pink | 03/23/22 |
| Cerebral Point | 07/25/22 |
| Chest-beating saffron goal in life | 07/25/22 |
| Cerebral Point | 10/23/22 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 11/16/22 |
| bearded ticket booth love of her life | 04/25/23 |
| drab demanding hall roast beef | 04/25/23 |
| flushed clown | 04/29/23 |
| Vigorous Bronze Crackhouse Depressive | 05/28/23 |
| Cerebral Point | 02/22/24 |
| flushed clown | 02/23/24 |
| Cerebral Point | 05/23/24 |
| Cerebral Point | 08/26/24 |
| flushed clown | 09/13/24 |
| Chest-beating saffron goal in life | 09/13/24 |
| flushed clown | 10/18/24 |
| Pearl Motley Indirect Expression | 10/11/24 |
| Cerebral Point | 11/06/24 |
| hairless alpha kitchen | 03/04/25 |
| hairless alpha kitchen | 03/04/25 |
| Tantric old irish cottage stage | 03/04/25 |
| Pearl Motley Indirect Expression | 03/04/25 |
| lavender azn | 03/04/25 |
| ocher faggotry | 03/05/25 |
| Cerebral Point | 03/07/25 |
| Purple | 03/07/25 |
| Cerebral Point | 03/08/25 |
| Insanely creepy | 03/08/25 |
| Cerebral Point | 03/08/25 |
| Lime marketing idea | 02/18/26 |
| Cerebral Point | 05/15/26 |
| poppy | 05/17/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Jade main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: bossy turquoise sweet tailpipe circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Sadistic swashbuckling site friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Sadistic swashbuckling site friendly grandma another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30631018) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: Galvanic violent dilemma dysfunction "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Chest-beating saffron goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: Spectacular market mediation 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Lime marketing idea 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: vermilion useless brakes Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: Racy crimson stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: Godawful office nibblets FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Chartreuse confused area cumskin Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Dark property Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Provocative lilac digit ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: milky base Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: coral black woman Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Spruce windowlicker cruise ship Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: wine personal credit line scourge upon the earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: heady spot boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29359818) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: Charcoal odious house turdskin 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29359849) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: Provocative lilac digit ratio November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Self-absorbed internal respiration police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364617) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Aphrodisiac dopamine Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29677834) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: Flesh resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31866880) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: drab demanding hall roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364621) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Fear-inspiring puppy lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: mentally impaired grizzly dragon national security agency March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Blathering charismatic gaping striped hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: Thriller domesticated reading party 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: light stimulating party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364847) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: slap-happy giraffe lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: gold brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364887) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: hairless alpha kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364890) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: fluffy walnut business firm Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: twisted irradiated abode stock car Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Chartreuse confused area cumskin OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Chartreuse confused area cumskin And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: Slate jew rigpig 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Ebony Shrine Filthpig fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: nofapping trailer park juggernaut I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: 180 pit hunting ground 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: bipolar crotch theatre February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: High-end mischievous range You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Lascivious Public Bath Feces (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Aphrodisiac dopamine Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Hyperventilating Twinkling Uncleanness School Cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: Doobsian kitty cat rehab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: French fragrant really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: alcoholic station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Unhinged beady-eyed home Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Hideous Whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: arousing set This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: razzmatazz temple 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: Splenetic pontificating den (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: Opaque razzle parlor sound barrier Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Cerebral Point Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Cerebral Point Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: titillating national (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: bossy turquoise sweet tailpipe circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Marvelous Brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Cerebral Point Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Cerebral Point "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Thriller domesticated reading party 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Cerebral Point "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Cerebral Point One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Cerebral Point This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Spruce windowlicker cruise ship flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Aphrodisiac dopamine Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: titillating national From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: learning disabled smoky theater stage philosopher-king 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Dull garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: comical shitlib An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Glittery lay ceo 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: comical shitlib I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: bossy turquoise sweet tailpipe circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: comical shitlib Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Glittery lay ceo No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: French fragrant really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Thriller domesticated reading party (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Cerebral Point “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: contagious heaven 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Thriller domesticated reading party (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: titillating national http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Thriller domesticated reading party (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Cerebral Point http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Cerebral Point Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: titillating national looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29677719) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: Primrose background story 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29677863) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: Aphrodisiac dopamine You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29677913) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: Primrose background story No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29791782) |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: contagious heaven (2-time shitbama voter) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31345881) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: bossy turquoise sweet tailpipe circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#37162047) |
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Date: January 29th, 2016 4:25 PM Author: Silver newt church building (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29708433) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29727124) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 11:21 AM Author: Deranged parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29727197) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29732588) |
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Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29771453) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 8:59 PM Author: learning disabled smoky theater stage philosopher-king (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29791735) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 9:00 PM Author: Pea-brained Violent Corner Pisswyrm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29791763) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29877406) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: Shimmering Vibrant Meetinghouse OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29877434) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM Author: Doobsian kitty cat rehab PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29903568) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM Author: Carnelian Razzle-dazzle French Chef Chapel The OP is XO at its peak brilliance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29903615) |
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Date: February 27th, 2016 6:57 PM Author: Flickering Impertinent Address Mad-dog Skullcap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29931652) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:52 AM Author: Slate jew rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30015868) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Supple Bawdyhouse Double Fault (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30066562) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:55 PM Author: Lime marketing idea (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30066681) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:52 AM Author: Ebony Shrine Filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30070592) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:18 AM Author: boyish rigor forum hosting error... LOL
this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: trip snowy orchestra pit water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29904083) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: Ebony Shrine Filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30987707) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Hairraiser therapy mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29904074) |
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Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: Lime marketing idea (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29931637) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29960115) |
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Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#29976826) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30015799) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: learning disabled smoky theater stage philosopher-king yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30015891) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30065629) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: Doobsian kitty cat rehab (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30065970) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: sexy center antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30066291) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM Author: vivacious burgundy sneaky criminal truly 180 thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30066549) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Cerebral Point It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: Chartreuse confused area cumskin March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30070601) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: alcoholic station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30119676) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30119337) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: gold brunch http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30140474) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: Mustard laser beams school Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30140513) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30144174) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Lascivious Public Bath Feces jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30151942) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: alcoholic station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30151965) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: Spectacular market mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30151975) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: French fragrant really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31172540) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: bossy turquoise sweet tailpipe circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Cerebral Point "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Cerebral Point "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: mahogany menage lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30160689) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: mahogany menage "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Cerebral Point http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Cerebral Point http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Cerebral Point "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: mahogany menage interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: lake passionate casino faggot firefighter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30279158) |
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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30307876) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: adventurous trump supporter native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30310760) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: Cheese-eating brindle library becky I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30310807) |
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Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30335375) |
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Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30346848) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30353572) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: cracking federal step-uncle's house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30353587) |
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Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: curious frum half-breed gas station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30378951) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: Slimy blue locus Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: Slimy blue locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: alcoholic station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Cerebral Point The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: Diverse sick associate holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30398720) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: Cream Kink-friendly Pocket Flask (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30402170) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30405223) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: contagious heaven 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30405346) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Cerebral Point Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: hairless alpha kitchen Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: trip snowy orchestra pit water buffalo Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: drab demanding hall roast beef This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Doobsian kitty cat rehab In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: drab demanding hall roast beef cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Cerebral Point Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Cerebral Point http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: aggressive obsidian stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: French fragrant really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: contagious heaven 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Cerebral Point http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: orange embarrassed to the bone institution ladyboy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: bull headed concupiscible piazza trust fund Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Olive Stage Blood Rage Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: mahogany menage amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Cerebral Point http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: contagious heaven holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: onyx multi-colored tanning salon LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: contagious heaven 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: contagious heaven lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Cerebral Point Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: mahogany menage ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: light stimulating party of the first part Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Bateful house-broken halford September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Electric senate volcanic crater September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Sadistic swashbuckling site friendly grandma god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Red fortuitous meteor XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Tantric old irish cottage stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: autistic frozen locale death wish (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: autistic frozen locale death wish The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: contagious heaven let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Cerebral Point http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: contagious heaven (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Chartreuse confused area cumskin This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Claret soul-stirring stead prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Vigorous Bronze Crackhouse Depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: mahogany menage http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: light stimulating party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: contagious heaven 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: Cheese-eating brindle library becky This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: lake passionate casino faggot firefighter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: excitant ivory nursing home sex offender (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: contagious heaven hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: scarlet new version Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: contagious heaven doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: bright hospital half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: mahogany menage nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Olive Stage Blood Rage close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: French fragrant really tough guy Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Red fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Useless brilliant headpube (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: 180 pit hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: mahogany menage prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: yapping sanctuary cuck You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: mahogany menage true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: mahogany menage ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: Big principal's office telephone (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Swollen Patrolman Field Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Deranged parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: autistic frozen locale death wish (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: exciting mint candlestick maker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Bateful house-broken halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: misunderstood effete church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Red fortuitous meteor GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: exciting mint candlestick maker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Olive Stage Blood Rage it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: hairless alpha kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: stirring bearded boiling water yarmulke (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Flesh resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Hyperventilating Twinkling Uncleanness School Cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Pearl Motley Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: histrionic location (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Gay plaza mad cow disease Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: laughsome preventive strike community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: Fuchsia Painfully Honest Quadroon 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: stirring bearded boiling water yarmulke (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: French fragrant really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: drab demanding hall roast beef this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: contagious heaven (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: Big-titted Wonderful Space Multi-billionaire (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Amethyst Theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Umber Exhilarant Corn Cake Doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: vermilion useless brakes you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Marvelous Brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Primrose background story Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Sadistic swashbuckling site friendly grandma bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: infuriating talented lodge son of senegal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: mahogany menage ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Shimmering Vibrant Meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: autistic frozen locale death wish (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Cyan legal warrant indian lodge They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: Dashing Gunner Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Hyperventilating Twinkling Uncleanness School Cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Pearl Motley Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: mind-boggling haunting wrinkle milk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: bright hospital GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Flatulent state https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Sadistic swashbuckling site friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: mind-boggling haunting wrinkle milk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: appetizing toilet seat October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: appetizing toilet seat ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Sadistic swashbuckling site friendly grandma truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: alcoholic station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: appetizing toilet seat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: appetizing toilet seat http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: excitant ivory nursing home sex offender TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: appetizing toilet seat It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: pale floppy box office gaming laptop I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: excitant ivory nursing home sex offender it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: appetizing toilet seat The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: appetizing toilet seat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: appetizing toilet seat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: appetizing toilet seat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: appetizing toilet seat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: appetizing toilet seat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: appetizing toilet seat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: appetizing toilet seat https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Lime marketing idea this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Red fortuitous meteor One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: bossy turquoise sweet tailpipe circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Cerebral Point https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: alcoholic station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: fishy goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Territorial aromatic credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Iridescent dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: navy queen of the night (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: alcoholic station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: contagious heaven Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: alcoholic station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Sadistic swashbuckling site friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Cerebral Point https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: alcoholic station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Tantric old irish cottage stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Cerebral Point The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Spectacular market mediation It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Sadistic swashbuckling site friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: Electric senate volcanic crater Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Aphrodisiac dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Sadistic swashbuckling site friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: bossy turquoise sweet tailpipe circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Sadistic swashbuckling site friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Cerebral Point What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: filthy cerise mexican mother (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Aphrodisiac dopamine There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: Selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Red fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Slippery Liquid Oxygen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: aggressive obsidian stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: aggressive obsidian stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: aggressive obsidian stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Red fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Chest-beating saffron goal in life Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: duck-like idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: flushed clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: Selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: alcoholic station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: aqua startled (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: stirring bearded boiling water yarmulke (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Hideous Whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Hideous Whorehouse https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Tripping cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: bossy turquoise sweet tailpipe circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: Selfie (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: alcoholic station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: fighting regret international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: Low-t round eye weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: Pink 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Chest-beating saffron goal in life A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: bearded ticket booth love of her life https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: drab demanding hall roast beef why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: flushed clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Vigorous Bronze Crackhouse Depressive FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: flushed clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Cerebral Point https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: flushed clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Chest-beating saffron goal in life One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: flushed clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: Pearl Motley Indirect Expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: hairless alpha kitchen 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: hairless alpha kitchen https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Tantric old irish cottage stage Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: Pearl Motley Indirect Expression The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: lavender azn He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: ocher faggotry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Cerebral Point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: Purple 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Cerebral Point "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: Insanely creepy Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Cerebral Point Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: Lime marketing idea (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2Vannesa#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: Cerebral Point ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
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Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: poppy i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |