Hypo: You join French World Cup team. WC played 100x. How many wins? Goals?
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Date: June 16th, 2026 12:45 PM Author: Angry market tank
For the hypo, you will join the French team for the 2026 World Cup. One of the 11 spots on the field each game is yours only, at all times. In other words, either you are playing, or they're a man down (not factoring in ejections).
The tournament will be played all the way through, then reset and played again for a total of 100 times. All injuries, fatigue, etc. get reset each time.
Of those 100 times the tournament is played, how many times does France win the World Cup? Right now, France is +450 to win the World Cup, implying about 18% odds.
In those 100x times through the tournament, how many goals will you score?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5874688&forum_id=2Vannesa#49942015) |
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Date: June 16th, 2026 5:06 PM Author: Angry market tank
Wrong on both counts.
First of all, soccer sabermetrics-mos say being man down is worth around 1.5 goals per game. France, the favorite to win the WC would beat lots of teams playing man down/would beat a lot of teams if they needed to spot them 1.5 goals.
Second, I'm tall, athletic, and played a little ball in college (a real American sport, not soccer). I would 100% contribute to slowing down the other team on D and would 100% be a threat to score, especially if left uncovered. I'd play midfield, btw.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5874688&forum_id=2Vannesa#49942377) |
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