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The reason polymarket is no good for making predictions is easy to illustrate
| https://i.imgur.com/ovcBe0z.png | 01/16/26 |
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Date: January 16th, 2026 6:11 PM Author: https://i.imgur.com/ovcBe0z.png Remember the show Who Wants Be a Millionaire? Remember how one of the lifelines was "poll the audience?" Remember how the audience was never wrong? Isn't that why it was called a lifeline?
Real markets are like that. They are information markets. At least some of the market participants have real information, and they aren't really betting on anything because they already know the truth.
This will never happen on Polymarket. It will be wrong very often because it's not an information market. Insiders will trade but their trade volume will never enough to swing the market, and everyone else is just guessing. |