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A Texas Election Jolt to the GOP (wsj)
| queensbridge benzo | 02/01/26 |
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Date: February 1st, 2026 9:54 PM Author: queensbridge benzo How does a Republican lose by 14 points in a safe conservative Texas state Senate seat that President Trump carried by 17 points in 2024? Answer: When there’s a voter backlash against the Trump Administration, notably its mass deportation debacles.
OPINION: POTOMAC WATCH WSJ Opinion Potomac Watch Another Spending Impasse in Congress, as Democrats Demand an ICE Overhaul
SUBSCRIBE Add to Queue Explore Audio Center That’s what happened Saturday in a special election to fill a GOP seat in Tarrant County in the Fort Worth area. Democrat Taylor Rehmet, a labor union leader and veteran, romped over Republican Leigh Wambsganss, who had a Truth Social endorsement from Mr. Trump and vastly outspent Mr. Rehmet.
The election timing was awful for Republicans in the wake of the two killings by immigration agents in Minneapolis. Ms. Wambsganss has been a leader in the parental-rights movement in school boards and wasn’t a bad candidate. But state politics is often national these days, and the 31-point vote swing in a little more than 14 months can only be explained as part of a rising tide of opposition to Mr. Trump’s first year and a sour public mood.
Democrats and independents came out in droves, as they did in last November’s races, while GOP turnout was down. This has been the trend throughout 2025 and the New Year, with an average swing in double digits toward Democrats in special elections for the U.S. House.
This comes amid a debate on the right over what themes to stress to avoid a GOP washout in November. Even after Minneapolis, some of MAGA’s mouthpieces are saying the GOP should run more forcefully on immigration enforcement. This was White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller’s strategy in 2018 as he helped to blow up a bipartisan immigration reform compromise on Capitol Hill. The GOP lost a net of 41 House seats.
The Miller strategy isn’t likely to fare better this year, as the polls show voters turning against the way Mr. Trump is pursuing mass deportation. In the wake of the Minneapolis shootings, Mr. Trump has said he wants to dial back the confrontations on the street. That’s smart, but he’ll also have to dial back Mr. Miller, who is the mastermind of the mass deportation strategy.
Mr. Miller ordered the immigration bureaucracy to fill a quota of 3,000 migrant arrests a day. This was bound to result in agent intrusions into homes and businesses, since there aren’t that many criminal migrants to fill such a quota each day.
Immigration has overall been a winning issue for Republicans, but it works better as a reaction to Democratic border enforcement failures. Mr. Trump has already largely closed the border. But immigration enforcement that turns ugly in the streets is turning off the swing voters who will determine who wins the race for Congress this year. |