The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| motley twisted fortuitous meteor | 12/10/15 |
| mint university goyim | 12/12/15 |
| motley twisted fortuitous meteor | 01/02/17 |
| Big-titted Clown Lay | 01/06/16 |
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| Beady-eyed shitlib | 01/18/16 |
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| motley twisted fortuitous meteor | 01/25/16 |
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| Marvelous turquoise rehab | 02/09/16 |
| filthy beta address | 09/06/16 |
| Big-titted Clown Lay | 11/05/18 |
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| Beady-eyed shitlib | 02/01/16 |
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| Learning Disabled Adulterous Piazza | 02/27/16 |
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| Razzle-dazzle navy stage wagecucks | 07/21/16 |
| Exhilarant rigpig | 02/24/16 |
| Deranged church patrolman | 02/27/16 |
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| vibrant quadroon | 03/23/16 |
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| chocolate useless brakes mother | 03/26/16 |
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| vibrant quadroon | 03/28/16 |
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| Flirting odious keepsake machete hell | 08/12/16 |
| Big-titted Clown Lay | 11/05/18 |
| Beady-eyed shitlib | 03/28/16 |
| Beady-eyed shitlib | 03/29/16 |
| Slippery dilemma really tough guy | 03/29/16 |
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| Slippery dilemma really tough guy | 04/15/16 |
| Vigorous Property | 04/15/16 |
| Beady-eyed shitlib | 04/19/16 |
| Out-of-control Boltzmann Deer Antler | 04/20/16 |
| Contagious Offensive Sanctuary Multi-billionaire | 04/20/16 |
| Beady-eyed shitlib | 04/24/16 |
| Beady-eyed shitlib | 04/25/16 |
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| spectacular dog poop | 04/26/16 |
| razzmatazz chad knife | 04/30/16 |
| 180 Up-to-no-good Mad-dog Skullcap | 05/01/16 |
| 180 Up-to-no-good Mad-dog Skullcap | 11/07/16 |
| Beady-eyed shitlib | 05/02/16 |
| vibrant quadroon | 05/02/16 |
| Beady-eyed shitlib | 05/03/16 |
| abusive underhanded bawdyhouse | 05/03/16 |
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| filthy beta address | 05/04/16 |
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| henna stimulating dysfunction pocket flask | 05/05/16 |
| motley twisted fortuitous meteor | 05/05/16 |
| fishy kitchen | 05/05/16 |
| demanding hospital nibblets | 05/18/16 |
| Beady-eyed shitlib | 05/18/16 |
| Electric range cuck | 05/18/16 |
| demanding hospital nibblets | 05/18/16 |
| motley twisted fortuitous meteor | 05/29/16 |
| motley twisted fortuitous meteor | 06/20/16 |
| Beady-eyed shitlib | 06/29/16 |
| Beady-eyed shitlib | 07/14/16 |
| Fantasy-prone Sick Mood | 07/15/16 |
| Flirting odious keepsake machete hell | 07/15/16 |
| Beady-eyed shitlib | 07/17/16 |
| filthy beta address | 07/17/16 |
| Beady-eyed shitlib | 07/21/16 |
| Beady-eyed shitlib | 07/22/16 |
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| magenta swashbuckling market | 07/23/16 |
| Beady-eyed shitlib | 07/24/16 |
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| Slippery dilemma really tough guy | 07/25/16 |
| motley twisted fortuitous meteor | 07/27/16 |
| Beady-eyed shitlib | 08/05/16 |
| Beady-eyed shitlib | 08/09/16 |
| motley twisted fortuitous meteor | 08/12/16 |
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| motley twisted fortuitous meteor | 08/30/16 |
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| Beady-eyed shitlib | 09/13/16 |
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| Transparent Excitant Box Office | 09/19/16 |
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| filthy beta address | 09/27/16 |
| motley twisted fortuitous meteor | 09/24/16 |
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| Fragrant high-end institution | 09/27/16 |
| cyan field turdskin | 10/08/16 |
| Flatulent khaki ape friendly grandma | 07/29/24 |
| Slippery dilemma really tough guy | 09/28/16 |
| maroon liquid oxygen | 09/28/16 |
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| Contagious Offensive Sanctuary Multi-billionaire | 09/28/16 |
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| Slippery dilemma really tough guy | 10/10/16 |
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| Flirting odious keepsake machete hell | 11/01/16 |
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| topaz kitty cat plaza | 11/02/16 |
| Haunting lascivious preventive strike meetinghouse | 11/02/16 |
| Slippery dilemma really tough guy | 11/07/16 |
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| concupiscible lilac incel | 11/08/16 |
| Transparent Excitant Box Office | 11/08/16 |
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| Comical puce chapel halford | 11/09/16 |
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| Pungent boyish location messiness | 11/09/16 |
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| self-absorbed resort | 11/09/16 |
| henna stimulating dysfunction pocket flask | 11/09/16 |
| Cream frozen affirmative action boistinker | 12/03/16 |
| Stirring mildly autistic corner | 12/07/16 |
| Nighttime Menage Weed Whacker | 12/17/16 |
| well-lubricated histrionic potus | 10/11/24 |
| Racy emerald site | 11/09/16 |
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| Poppy Irradiated Corn Cake Set | 11/10/16 |
| Transparent Excitant Box Office | 11/14/16 |
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| motley twisted fortuitous meteor | 03/03/20 |
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| Unholy temple | 09/21/17 |
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| Pungent boyish location messiness | 02/27/17 |
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| motley twisted fortuitous meteor | 01/30/18 |
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| goy orbison | 02/18/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: mint university goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Big-titted Clown Lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: lime glittery depressive theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: lime glittery depressive theater another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: curious coffee pot faggot firefighter 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: Magical hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: Bateful federal theater stage sex offender "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: floppy slimy center (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: hateful gas station gaping 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Deranged church patrolman 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Fragrant high-end institution Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: dun aromatic stage queen of the night Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Jade Startling Tanning Salon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: Trip National Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Unhinged reading party Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: confused elite pit telephone Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
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March 11
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March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
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He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
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March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Fragrant high-end institution OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Fragrant high-end institution And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle navy stage wagecucks fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: gold crawly stag film I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: Haunting lascivious preventive strike meetinghouse 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Drunken locus February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Obsidian church building toilet seat You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29384262) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Flesh party of the first part Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Spruce cuckold This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: Wine foreskin 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: Zombie-like office coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: Multi-colored Crackhouse Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: Canary marketing idea (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Big-titted Clown Lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Light brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: Lavender Vivacious Digit Ratio Abode 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: confused elite pit telephone flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: primrose step-uncle's house main people Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: Canary marketing idea From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: pink passionate hissy fit I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: pink passionate hissy fit Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: brilliant mind-boggling laser beams No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Flirting odious keepsake machete hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: Lavender Vivacious Digit Ratio Abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: filthy beta address 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: Lavender Vivacious Digit Ratio Abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: Canary marketing idea http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: Lavender Vivacious Digit Ratio Abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: Canary marketing idea looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29677719) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: Marvelous turquoise rehab 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29677863) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: primrose step-uncle's house main people You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29677913) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: Marvelous turquoise rehab No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29791782) |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: filthy beta address (2-time shitbama voter) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31345881) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Big-titted Clown Lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#37162047) |
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Date: January 29th, 2016 4:25 PM Author: Cerebral ticket booth pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29708433) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29727124) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 11:21 AM Author: concupiscible lilac incel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29727197) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29732588) |
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Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29771453) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 8:59 PM Author: crystalline hairraiser state degenerate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29791735) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 9:00 PM Author: aggressive balding indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29791763) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29877406) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: Poppy Irradiated Corn Cake Set OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29877434) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM Author: Electric range cuck PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29903568) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM Author: Smoky Tattoo The OP is XO at its peak brilliance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29903615) |
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Date: February 27th, 2016 6:57 PM Author: Learning Disabled Adulterous Piazza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29931652) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:52 AM Author: exciting orange ratface generalized bond (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30015868) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Seedy buck-toothed mediation parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30066562) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:55 PM Author: Deranged church patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30066681) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:52 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle navy stage wagecucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30070592) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:18 AM Author: garnet sneaky criminal hosting error... LOL
this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: fishy kitchen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29904083) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle navy stage wagecucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30987707) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Exhilarant rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29904074) |
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Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: Deranged church patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29931637) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29960115) |
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Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#29976826) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30015799) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: crystalline hairraiser state degenerate yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30015891) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30065629) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: Electric range cuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30065970) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: Maize big jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30066291) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM Author: bossy judgmental cuckoldry truly 180 thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30066549) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: Fragrant high-end institution March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30070601) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: vibrant quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30119676) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30119337) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: chocolate useless brakes mother http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30140474) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: effete point Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30140513) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30144174) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: bipolar thriller community account jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30151942) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: vibrant quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30151965) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: hateful gas station gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30151975) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Flirting odious keepsake machete hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31172540) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: Big-titted Clown Lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: Slippery dilemma really tough guy lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30160689) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Slippery dilemma really tough guy "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Slippery dilemma really tough guy interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: Vigorous Property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30279158) |
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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30307876) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: Out-of-control Boltzmann Deer Antler (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30310760) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: Contagious Offensive Sanctuary Multi-billionaire I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30310807) |
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Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30335375) |
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Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30346848) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30353572) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: spectacular dog poop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30353587) |
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Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: razzmatazz chad knife (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30378951) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: 180 Up-to-no-good Mad-dog Skullcap Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: 180 Up-to-no-good Mad-dog Skullcap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: vibrant quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: abusive underhanded bawdyhouse holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30398720) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: Apoplectic Hominid Spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30402170) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30405223) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: filthy beta address 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30405346) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: henna stimulating dysfunction pocket flask Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: fishy kitchen Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: demanding hospital nibblets This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Electric range cuck In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: demanding hospital nibblets cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Fantasy-prone Sick Mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Flirting odious keepsake machete hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: filthy beta address 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: blathering school roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: magenta swashbuckling market Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: self-absorbed resort Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Slippery dilemma really tough guy amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: filthy beta address holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: dashing tank LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: filthy beta address 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: filthy beta address lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Slippery dilemma really tough guy ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: maroon liquid oxygen Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Comical puce chapel halford September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: appetizing slap-happy orchestra pit September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: lime glittery depressive theater god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Pungent boyish location messiness XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: bespoke station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Transparent Excitant Box Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Transparent Excitant Box Office The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: filthy beta address let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: filthy beta address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Fragrant high-end institution This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: cyan field turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Flatulent khaki ape friendly grandma (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Slippery dilemma really tough guy http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: maroon liquid oxygen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: filthy beta address 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: Contagious Offensive Sanctuary Multi-billionaire This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: Vigorous Property (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: flushed giraffe space (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: filthy beta address hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: opaque macaca selfie Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: filthy beta address doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Claret internal respiration half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Slippery dilemma really tough guy nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: self-absorbed resort close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Flirting odious keepsake machete hell Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Pungent boyish location messiness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: topaz kitty cat plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: Haunting lascivious preventive strike meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Slippery dilemma really tough guy prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: titillating doctorate You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Slippery dilemma really tough guy true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Slippery dilemma really tough guy ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: White sweet tailpipe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: heady theatre Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: concupiscible lilac incel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: Transparent Excitant Box Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: Pontificating Disgusting Trailer Park Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Comical puce chapel halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: arousing library famous landscape painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Pungent boyish location messiness GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: Pontificating Disgusting Trailer Park Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: self-absorbed resort it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: henna stimulating dysfunction pocket flask (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: Cream frozen affirmative action boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Stirring mildly autistic corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Nighttime Menage Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: well-lubricated histrionic potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Racy emerald site (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Soul-stirring mustard therapy faggotry Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: galvanic rusted athletic conference cruise ship (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: wonderful skinny woman 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Cream frozen affirmative action boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Flirting odious keepsake machete hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: demanding hospital nibblets this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: filthy beta address (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: locale jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: son of senegal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: yellow den (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: provocative love of her life nursing home you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Light brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Marvelous turquoise rehab Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: lime glittery depressive theater bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: Burgundy parlor jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Slippery dilemma really tough guy ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Poppy Irradiated Corn Cake Set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Transparent Excitant Box Office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Chartreuse Business Firm They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: tripping house-broken brethren Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Nighttime Menage Weed Whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: well-lubricated histrionic potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: purple heaven (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Claret internal respiration GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: slate half-breed https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: lime glittery depressive theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: purple heaven (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Unholy temple October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Unholy temple ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: lime glittery depressive theater truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: vibrant quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Unholy temple https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Unholy temple http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: flushed giraffe space TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Unholy temple It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: Lemon principal's office bbw I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: flushed giraffe space it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Unholy temple The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Unholy temple https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Unholy temple https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Unholy temple https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Unholy temple https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Unholy temple https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Unholy temple https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Unholy temple https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Deranged church patrolman this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Pungent boyish location messiness One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Big-titted Clown Lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: vibrant quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: home trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: sapphire area credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: ocher base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: narrow-minded whorehouse mad cow disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: Low-t Kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: vibrant quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: filthy beta address Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: vibrant quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: lime glittery depressive theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: vibrant quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: bespoke station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: hateful gas station gaping It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: lime glittery depressive theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: appetizing slap-happy orchestra pit Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: primrose step-uncle's house main people (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: lime glittery depressive theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Big-titted Clown Lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: lime glittery depressive theater (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: Mentally Impaired Public Bath Newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: primrose step-uncle's house main people There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: Erotic Stubborn Legal Warrant Senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Pungent boyish location messiness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Fantasy-prone Sick Mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Fantasy-prone Sick Mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Fantasy-prone Sick Mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Pungent boyish location messiness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: floppy slimy center Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: vermilion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: brass roommate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: Erotic Stubborn Legal Warrant Senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: vibrant quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: sable lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: Cream frozen affirmative action boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: cracking arrogant fat ankles stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: cracking arrogant fat ankles stead https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: dark (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Big-titted Clown Lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: Erotic Stubborn Legal Warrant Senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: vibrant quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Anal ultramarine milk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: Very tactful bonkers crotch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: Chrome 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: floppy slimy center A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: motley twisted fortuitous meteor https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: demanding hospital nibblets why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: brass roommate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Flatulent khaki ape friendly grandma FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: brass roommate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: brass roommate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: floppy slimy center One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: brass roommate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: well-lubricated histrionic potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: henna stimulating dysfunction pocket flask 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: henna stimulating dysfunction pocket flask https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: bespoke station Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: well-lubricated histrionic potus The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: brindle dopamine He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: Maniacal organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: Scourge Upon The Earth 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: candlestick maker Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Beady-eyed shitlib Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: goy orbison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2most#49679495) |