The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| orchid personal credit line | 12/10/15 |
| godawful swollen immigrant | 12/12/15 |
| orchid personal credit line | 01/02/17 |
| adulterous rebellious locale | 01/06/16 |
| insecure laughsome goal in life | 01/06/16 |
| insecure laughsome goal in life | 06/05/16 |
| Fear-inspiring Cruise Ship Headpube | 03/26/16 |
| stirring orchestra pit | 01/02/17 |
| charismatic pungent puppy address | 10/25/18 |
| Sexy splenetic round eye | 12/10/15 |
| walnut water buffalo | 12/10/15 |
| Lascivious brilliant ticket booth doctorate | 12/10/15 |
| Supple coldplay fan | 12/10/15 |
| Spectacular jewess | 12/15/15 |
| red volcanic crater mediation | 12/10/15 |
| Seedy titillating school friendly grandma | 12/10/15 |
| adventurous codepig kitty cat | 12/10/15 |
| appetizing boltzmann range | 12/11/15 |
| deranged heaven deer antler | 12/12/15 |
| useless concupiscible dilemma cuck | 12/16/15 |
| Copper idiotic crotch rehab | 01/04/16 |
| Scarlet Rigor | 11/09/16 |
| orchid personal credit line | 12/11/15 |
| Green international law enforcement agency | 12/11/15 |
| poppy set | 12/11/15 |
| appetizing boltzmann range | 12/11/15 |
| House-broken Stimulating Theater Regret | 12/12/15 |
| out-of-control new version crackhouse | 01/25/16 |
| racy grizzly masturbator | 11/10/16 |
| orchid personal credit line | 12/12/15 |
| free-loading sapphire location persian | 12/12/15 |
| Multi-colored nursing home mood | 12/12/15 |
| Floppy flatulent forum patrolman | 12/12/15 |
| Abusive milky stain | 12/15/15 |
| magenta corn cake | 12/21/15 |
| Fuchsia parlour | 12/12/15 |
| Cordovan sinister bbw nowag | 12/12/15 |
| bateful school cafeteria | 12/12/15 |
| Marvelous Base | 12/12/15 |
| canary hissy fit | 12/12/15 |
| wonderful hairy legs | 12/12/15 |
| Seedy titillating school friendly grandma | 12/15/15 |
| Seedy titillating school friendly grandma | 12/16/15 |
| 180 church building black woman | 12/15/15 |
| Azure skinny woman dingle berry | 12/15/15 |
| bisexual jap | 12/15/15 |
| heady hyperactive stag film liquid oxygen | 12/15/15 |
| Cobalt insane knife hominid | 12/15/15 |
| Outnumbered multi-billionaire | 12/15/15 |
| orchid personal credit line | 12/15/15 |
| orchid personal credit line | 12/15/15 |
| orchid personal credit line | 12/15/15 |
| orchid personal credit line | 12/15/15 |
| orchid personal credit line | 12/15/15 |
| obsidian macaca | 01/05/16 |
| out-of-control new version crackhouse | 01/25/16 |
| aphrodisiac snowy house | 12/17/16 |
| Domesticated cruel-hearted sanctuary factory reset button | 05/18/16 |
| Painfully honest stage turdskin | 08/12/16 |
| orchid personal credit line | 11/09/16 |
| Chestnut Fluffy Private Investor Mexican | 11/09/16 |
| Narrow-minded Pink Faggotry Scourge Upon The Earth | 11/09/16 |
| Flesh well-lubricated temple | 10/22/20 |
| vibrant peach den | 12/15/15 |
| vigorous mother elastic band | 12/16/15 |
| Irradiated offensive hell | 12/16/15 |
| cerebral love of her life | 12/16/15 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 12/16/15 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 12/17/15 |
| Cerise boyish garrison | 12/18/15 |
| adulterous rebellious locale | 01/06/16 |
| Up-to-no-good pit | 12/18/15 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 12/21/15 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 12/21/15 |
| magenta corn cake | 12/21/15 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 12/30/15 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 12/30/15 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 01/04/16 |
| Copper idiotic crotch rehab | 01/04/16 |
| orchid personal credit line | 01/05/16 |
| out-of-control new version crackhouse | 01/25/16 |
| Cerise boyish garrison | 01/05/16 |
| Thriller Striped Hyena | 01/05/16 |
| Lilac Hospital Toilet Seat | 01/05/16 |
| dashing piazza | 01/05/16 |
| angry principal's office boiling water | 01/05/16 |
| dashing piazza | 01/05/16 |
| adulterous rebellious locale | 01/06/16 |
| dashing piazza | 01/06/16 |
| angry principal's office boiling water | 01/05/16 |
| Painfully honest stage turdskin | 01/06/16 |
| magenta corn cake | 01/07/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 01/08/16 |
| Indecent Shimmering Potus | 01/08/16 |
| magenta corn cake | 01/08/16 |
| Cerise boyish garrison | 01/09/16 |
| magenta corn cake | 01/10/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 01/18/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 01/19/16 |
| Cerise boyish garrison | 01/21/16 |
| orchid personal credit line | 01/25/16 |
| coral excitant library | 01/25/16 |
| out-of-control new version crackhouse | 01/25/16 |
| coral excitant library | 02/09/16 |
| Indecent Shimmering Potus | 09/06/16 |
| adulterous rebellious locale | 11/05/18 |
| aqua vengeful property background story | 01/29/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 02/01/16 |
| Razzle Arrogant Area | 02/01/16 |
| orchid personal credit line | 02/01/16 |
| orchid personal credit line | 02/07/16 |
| Thriller Striped Hyena | 02/09/16 |
| Flirting Cracking Yarmulke Step-uncle's House | 02/09/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 02/20/16 |
| Umber Jet-lagged Son Of Senegal Trust Fund | 02/20/16 |
| Domesticated cruel-hearted sanctuary factory reset button | 02/24/16 |
| Tripping theater stage | 02/24/16 |
| Judgmental meetinghouse | 02/27/16 |
| 180 church building black woman | 03/09/16 |
| Awkward degenerate | 03/15/16 |
| Lascivious brilliant ticket booth doctorate | 03/15/16 |
| Azure skinny woman dingle berry | 03/16/16 |
| hilarious marketing idea | 02/24/16 |
| Frum alpha hunting ground | 02/24/16 |
| Azure skinny woman dingle berry | 07/21/16 |
| Henna State Old Irish Cottage | 02/24/16 |
| Lascivious brilliant ticket booth doctorate | 02/27/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 03/02/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 03/04/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 03/09/16 |
| Thriller Striped Hyena | 03/09/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 03/15/16 |
| Domesticated cruel-hearted sanctuary factory reset button | 03/15/16 |
| Impressive pea-brained stead people who are hurt | 03/15/16 |
| Disturbing Lodge | 03/15/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 03/16/16 |
| Seedy titillating school friendly grandma | 03/16/16 |
| Chestnut Fluffy Private Investor Mexican | 03/23/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 03/23/16 |
| bateful school cafeteria | 03/26/16 |
| Vivacious Iridescent Philosopher-king Karate | 03/26/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 03/26/16 |
| obsidian macaca | 03/28/16 |
| Chestnut Fluffy Private Investor Mexican | 03/28/16 |
| walnut water buffalo | 03/28/16 |
| Painfully honest stage turdskin | 08/12/16 |
| adulterous rebellious locale | 11/05/18 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 03/28/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 03/29/16 |
| Ultramarine Indirect Expression | 03/29/16 |
| Ultramarine Indirect Expression | 03/29/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 03/29/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 03/29/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 04/01/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 04/04/16 |
| Ultramarine Indirect Expression | 04/15/16 |
| blathering buck-toothed menage | 04/15/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 04/19/16 |
| lavender resort | 04/20/16 |
| Odious black bawdyhouse | 04/20/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 04/24/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 04/25/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 04/26/16 |
| slippery ruby university nibblets | 04/26/16 |
| provocative hot lay | 04/30/16 |
| brindle big-titted national legend | 05/01/16 |
| brindle big-titted national legend | 11/07/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 05/02/16 |
| Chestnut Fluffy Private Investor Mexican | 05/02/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 05/03/16 |
| Motley antidepressant drug jew | 05/03/16 |
| autistic bonkers senate halford | 05/03/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 05/04/16 |
| Indecent Shimmering Potus | 05/04/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 05/05/16 |
| Marvelous Base | 05/05/16 |
| orchid personal credit line | 05/05/16 |
| Frum alpha hunting ground | 05/05/16 |
| free-loading sapphire location persian | 05/18/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 05/18/16 |
| Domesticated cruel-hearted sanctuary factory reset button | 05/18/16 |
| free-loading sapphire location persian | 05/18/16 |
| orchid personal credit line | 05/29/16 |
| orchid personal credit line | 06/20/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 06/29/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 07/14/16 |
| contagious spot | 07/15/16 |
| Painfully honest stage turdskin | 07/15/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 07/17/16 |
| Indecent Shimmering Potus | 07/17/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 07/21/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 07/22/16 |
| citrine haunting indian lodge | 07/22/16 |
| Glittery violet messiness | 07/23/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 07/24/16 |
| Talking zippy azn community account | 07/25/16 |
| Ultramarine Indirect Expression | 07/25/16 |
| orchid personal credit line | 07/27/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 08/05/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 08/09/16 |
| orchid personal credit line | 08/12/16 |
| Indecent Shimmering Potus | 08/12/16 |
| orchid personal credit line | 08/12/16 |
| Hairraiser slimy stock car | 08/12/16 |
| orchid personal credit line | 08/30/16 |
| Indecent Shimmering Potus | 08/30/16 |
| Indecent Shimmering Potus | 09/06/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 09/13/16 |
| Ultramarine Indirect Expression | 09/14/16 |
| Fuchsia parlour | 09/14/16 |
| maroon arousing home twinkling uncleanness | 09/15/16 |
| frozen tantric place of business half-breed | 09/15/16 |
| insecure laughsome goal in life | 09/15/16 |
| Fantasy-prone hall | 09/15/16 |
| Razzle-dazzle Puce Parlor Electric Furnace | 09/15/16 |
| submissive space fortuitous meteor | 09/19/16 |
| submissive space fortuitous meteor | 09/19/16 |
| Indecent Shimmering Potus | 09/27/16 |
| orchid personal credit line | 09/24/16 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 09/27/16 |
| Indecent Shimmering Potus | 09/27/16 |
| Seedy titillating school friendly grandma | 09/27/16 |
| Bespoke Fragrant Chapel Foreskin | 10/08/16 |
| Orange Exciting Brunch Candlestick Maker | 07/29/24 |
| Ultramarine Indirect Expression | 09/28/16 |
| Fuchsia parlour | 09/28/16 |
| Indecent Shimmering Potus | 09/28/16 |
| Odious black bawdyhouse | 09/28/16 |
| blathering buck-toothed menage | 09/28/16 |
| swashbuckling gold plaza kitty | 10/08/16 |
| Indecent Shimmering Potus | 10/09/16 |
| Light shrine wrinkle | 10/09/16 |
| Indecent Shimmering Potus | 10/09/16 |
| Cyan misunderstood theatre rigpig | 10/09/16 |
| Ultramarine Indirect Expression | 10/10/16 |
| Talking zippy azn community account | 10/30/16 |
| Painfully honest stage turdskin | 11/01/16 |
| Fantasy-prone hall | 11/01/16 |
| mustard lettuce market | 11/02/16 |
| heady hyperactive stag film liquid oxygen | 11/02/16 |
| Ultramarine Indirect Expression | 11/07/16 |
| Know-it-all Voyeur Center | 11/08/16 |
| Ultramarine Indirect Expression | 11/08/16 |
| orchid personal credit line | 11/08/16 |
| Ultramarine Indirect Expression | 11/08/16 |
| harsh box office mental disorder | 11/08/16 |
| Mahogany toaster | 11/08/16 |
| Razzle Arrogant Area | 11/08/16 |
| submissive space fortuitous meteor | 11/08/16 |
| orchid personal credit line | 11/08/16 |
| Passionate dog poop | 11/09/16 |
| maroon arousing home twinkling uncleanness | 11/09/16 |
| comical blue whorehouse | 11/09/16 |
| orchid personal credit line | 11/09/16 |
| Fantasy-prone hall | 11/09/16 |
| Passionate dog poop | 11/09/16 |
| Talking zippy azn community account | 11/09/16 |
| Marvelous Base | 11/09/16 |
| smoky field | 12/03/16 |
| racy grizzly masturbator | 12/07/16 |
| aphrodisiac snowy house | 12/17/16 |
| mauve histrionic church | 10/11/24 |
| stubborn tattoo stage | 11/09/16 |
| Cowardly dragon tank | 11/09/16 |
| Hyperventilating naked locus mad cow disease | 11/09/16 |
| zombie-like fanboi | 11/09/16 |
| smoky field | 11/09/16 |
| Painfully honest stage turdskin | 11/09/16 |
| orchid personal credit line | 11/09/16 |
| free-loading sapphire location persian | 11/09/16 |
| Indecent Shimmering Potus | 11/09/16 |
| Medicated Diverse Pervert | 11/09/16 |
| orchid personal credit line | 11/09/16 |
| Claret Exhilarant Institution Idiot | 11/09/16 |
| Beady-eyed Thirsty Business Firm | 11/09/16 |
| orchid personal credit line | 11/09/16 |
| Supple coldplay fan | 11/09/16 |
| Up-to-no-good pit | 11/10/16 |
| coral excitant library | 11/10/16 |
| insecure laughsome goal in life | 11/10/16 |
| rose station | 11/10/16 |
| orchid personal credit line | 11/10/16 |
| Ultramarine Indirect Expression | 11/10/16 |
| Umber Jet-lagged Son Of Senegal Trust Fund | 11/10/16 |
| submissive space fortuitous meteor | 11/14/16 |
| Chrome site | 11/14/16 |
| Mind-boggling Magical Incel Organic Girlfriend | 12/04/16 |
| aphrodisiac snowy house | 12/17/16 |
| mauve histrionic church | 10/11/24 |
| orchid personal credit line | 11/25/16 |
| Effete Corner Ladyboy | 12/03/16 |
| Cyan misunderstood theatre rigpig | 12/04/16 |
| misanthropic curious point | 12/07/16 |
| insecure laughsome goal in life | 12/07/16 |
| Effete Corner Ladyboy | 12/07/16 |
| orchid personal credit line | 01/02/17 |
| Aromatic Really Tough Guy | 01/02/17 |
| orchid personal credit line | 01/02/17 |
| Aromatic Really Tough Guy | 01/02/17 |
| orchid personal credit line | 03/03/20 |
| insecure laughsome goal in life | 01/02/17 |
| Chestnut Fluffy Private Investor Mexican | 01/16/17 |
| Aromatic Really Tough Guy | 01/20/17 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 01/20/17 |
| Aromatic Really Tough Guy | 01/23/17 |
| swashbuckling gold plaza kitty | 01/23/17 |
| Aromatic Really Tough Guy | 01/23/17 |
| violent avocado wagecucks | 01/23/17 |
| swashbuckling gold plaza kitty | 01/23/17 |
| Aromatic Really Tough Guy | 01/23/17 |
| Aromatic Really Tough Guy | 01/25/17 |
| Aromatic Really Tough Guy | 01/26/17 |
| Aromatic Really Tough Guy | 02/06/17 |
| Aromatic Really Tough Guy | 02/13/17 |
| Aromatic Really Tough Guy | 02/27/17 |
| Aromatic Really Tough Guy | 05/03/17 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 05/03/17 |
| Aromatic Really Tough Guy | 09/21/17 |
| Lascivious brilliant ticket booth doctorate | 01/23/17 |
| Fantasy-prone hall | 02/27/17 |
| adulterous rebellious locale | 03/22/17 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 04/17/17 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 05/08/17 |
| orchid personal credit line | 06/20/17 |
| orchid personal credit line | 08/10/17 |
| orchid personal credit line | 10/15/17 |
| Chestnut Fluffy Private Investor Mexican | 10/15/17 |
| nubile fishy casino idea he suggested | 10/15/17 |
| orchid personal credit line | 11/06/17 |
| big drab public bath | 11/06/17 |
| twinkling circlehead psychic | 11/08/17 |
| cream overrated tanning salon fat ankles | 11/08/17 |
| flickering trip gas station blood rage | 11/13/17 |
| Chestnut Fluffy Private Investor Mexican | 12/18/17 |
| Indecent Shimmering Potus | 12/18/17 |
| Chestnut Fluffy Private Investor Mexican | 12/18/17 |
| orchid personal credit line | 01/30/18 |
| insecure laughsome goal in life | 06/01/18 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 07/18/18 |
| Chestnut Fluffy Private Investor Mexican | 07/19/18 |
| Razzle-dazzle Puce Parlor Electric Furnace | 09/20/18 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 09/25/18 |
| walnut water buffalo | 10/06/18 |
| orchid personal credit line | 10/06/18 |
| insecure laughsome goal in life | 10/25/18 |
| frozen tantric place of business half-breed | 10/25/18 |
| out-of-control new version crackhouse | 11/05/18 |
| insecure laughsome goal in life | 11/05/18 |
| adulterous rebellious locale | 11/05/18 |
| insecure laughsome goal in life | 11/05/18 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 01/08/19 |
| crystalline boistinker | 02/23/19 |
| orchid personal credit line | 03/13/19 |
| out-of-control new version crackhouse | 06/24/19 |
| Talented lime kitchen gaping | 06/24/19 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 11/18/19 |
| Fantasy-prone hall | 02/12/20 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 02/12/20 |
| orchid personal credit line | 03/24/20 |
| Razzmatazz Bistre Trailer Park Prole | 03/24/20 |
| contagious spot | 04/04/20 |
| orchid personal credit line | 04/26/20 |
| orchid personal credit line | 05/13/20 |
| contagious spot | 06/05/20 |
| wild roast beef office | 06/05/20 |
| contagious spot | 09/09/20 |
| Fantasy-prone hall | 09/09/20 |
| Sexy splenetic round eye | 09/09/20 |
| abnormal galvanic native sound barrier | 09/12/20 |
| Erotic at-the-ready abode cuckold | 09/24/20 |
| Talented lime kitchen gaping | 10/09/20 |
| Chestnut Fluffy Private Investor Mexican | 10/10/20 |
| Soul-stirring rough-skinned police squad | 10/22/20 |
| smoky field | 10/22/20 |
| Flesh well-lubricated temple | 10/22/20 |
| Flesh well-lubricated temple | 10/22/20 |
| emerald sandwich | 03/23/22 |
| orchid personal credit line | 10/27/20 |
| adulterous rebellious locale | 10/27/20 |
| Talented lime kitchen gaping | 10/30/20 |
| Chestnut Fluffy Private Investor Mexican | 11/03/20 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 03/22/22 |
| salmon legal warrant | 03/23/22 |
| hairless | 03/23/22 |
| Shivering Depressive | 03/23/22 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 07/25/22 |
| Sexy splenetic round eye | 07/25/22 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 10/23/22 |
| orchid personal credit line | 11/16/22 |
| orchid personal credit line | 04/25/23 |
| free-loading sapphire location persian | 04/25/23 |
| Erotic at-the-ready abode cuckold | 04/29/23 |
| Orange Exciting Brunch Candlestick Maker | 05/28/23 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 02/22/24 |
| Erotic at-the-ready abode cuckold | 02/23/24 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 05/23/24 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 08/26/24 |
| Erotic at-the-ready abode cuckold | 09/13/24 |
| Sexy splenetic round eye | 09/13/24 |
| Erotic at-the-ready abode cuckold | 10/18/24 |
| mauve histrionic church | 10/11/24 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 11/06/24 |
| Marvelous Base | 03/04/25 |
| Marvelous Base | 03/04/25 |
| Razzle-dazzle Puce Parlor Electric Furnace | 03/04/25 |
| mauve histrionic church | 03/04/25 |
| Electric | 03/04/25 |
| Soggy | 03/05/25 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 03/07/25 |
| preventive strike | 03/07/25 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 03/08/25 |
| pale weed whacker | 03/08/25 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 03/08/25 |
| Lascivious brilliant ticket booth doctorate | 02/18/26 |
| Lemon dopamine party of the first part | 05/15/26 |
| partner | 05/17/26 |
| Soggy | 08/11/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: orchid personal credit line December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: godawful swollen immigrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: orchid personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: adulterous rebellious locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: insecure laughsome goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: insecure laughsome goal in life another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: Fear-inspiring Cruise Ship Headpube 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: stirring orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: charismatic pungent puppy address "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Sexy splenetic round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: walnut water buffalo 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Lascivious brilliant ticket booth doctorate 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Supple coldplay fan Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: Spectacular jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: red volcanic crater mediation FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Seedy titillating school friendly grandma Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: adventurous codepig kitty cat Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: appetizing boltzmann range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: deranged heaven deer antler Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: useless concupiscible dilemma cuck Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Copper idiotic crotch rehab Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Scarlet Rigor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: orchid personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: Green international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29359818) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: poppy set 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29359849) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: appetizing boltzmann range November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: House-broken Stimulating Theater Regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29364617) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: out-of-control new version crackhouse Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29677834) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: racy grizzly masturbator (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31866880) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: orchid personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: free-loading sapphire location persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29364621) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Multi-colored nursing home mood lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: Floppy flatulent forum patrolman March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: Abusive milky stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: magenta corn cake 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: Fuchsia parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29364847) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: Cordovan sinister bbw nowag lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: bateful school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29364887) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Marvelous Base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29364890) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: canary hissy fit Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: wonderful hairy legs Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Seedy titillating school friendly grandma OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Seedy titillating school friendly grandma And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: 180 church building black woman 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Azure skinny woman dingle berry fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: bisexual jap I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: heady hyperactive stag film liquid oxygen 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Cobalt insane knife hominid February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Outnumbered multi-billionaire You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: orchid personal credit line Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: orchid personal credit line http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: orchid personal credit line http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: orchid personal credit line http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: orchid personal credit line http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: obsidian macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: out-of-control new version crackhouse Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: aphrodisiac snowy house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: Domesticated cruel-hearted sanctuary factory reset button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Painfully honest stage turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: orchid personal credit line http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Chestnut Fluffy Private Investor Mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Narrow-minded Pink Faggotry Scourge Upon The Earth Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Flesh well-lubricated temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: vibrant peach den This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: vigorous mother elastic band 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: Irradiated offensive hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: cerebral love of her life Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: Cerise boyish garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: adulterous rebellious locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Up-to-no-good pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: magenta corn cake 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Copper idiotic crotch rehab flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: orchid personal credit line ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: out-of-control new version crackhouse Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: Cerise boyish garrison From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: Thriller Striped Hyena 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Lilac Hospital Toilet Seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: dashing piazza An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: angry principal's office boiling water 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: dashing piazza I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: adulterous rebellious locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: dashing piazza Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: angry principal's office boiling water No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Painfully honest stage turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: magenta corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: Indecent Shimmering Potus 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: magenta corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: Cerise boyish garrison http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: magenta corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: Cerise boyish garrison looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: orchid personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29677719) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM Author: coral excitant library 180000000000000000000000000000000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29677863) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM Author: out-of-control new version crackhouse You're a democratic, remember? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29677913) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM Author: coral excitant library No way! 100% TRUMPMO (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29791782) |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Indecent Shimmering Potus (2-time shitbama voter) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31345881) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: adulterous rebellious locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#37162047) |
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Date: January 29th, 2016 4:25 PM Author: aqua vengeful property background story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29708433) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29727124) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 11:21 AM Author: Razzle Arrogant Area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29727197) |
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Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM Author: orchid personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29732588) |
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Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: orchid personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29771453) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 8:59 PM Author: Thriller Striped Hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29791735) |
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Date: February 9th, 2016 9:00 PM Author: Flirting Cracking Yarmulke Step-uncle's House (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29791763) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29877406) |
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Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM Author: Umber Jet-lagged Son Of Senegal Trust Fund OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29877434) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM Author: Domesticated cruel-hearted sanctuary factory reset button PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29903568) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM Author: Tripping theater stage The OP is XO at its peak brilliance. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29903615) |
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Date: February 27th, 2016 6:57 PM Author: Judgmental meetinghouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29931652) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:52 AM Author: 180 church building black woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30015868) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Awkward degenerate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30066562) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:55 PM Author: Lascivious brilliant ticket booth doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30066681) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:52 AM Author: Azure skinny woman dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30070592) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 8:18 AM Author: hilarious marketing idea hosting error... LOL
this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years. |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM Author: Frum alpha hunting ground (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29904083) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM Author: Azure skinny woman dingle berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30987707) |
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Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Henna State Old Irish Cottage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29904074) |
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Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM Author: Lascivious brilliant ticket booth doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29931637) |
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Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29960115) |
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Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#29976826) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30015799) |
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Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM Author: Thriller Striped Hyena yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30015891) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30065629) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM Author: Domesticated cruel-hearted sanctuary factory reset button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30065970) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM Author: Impressive pea-brained stead people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30066291) |
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Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM Author: Disturbing Lodge truly 180 thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30066549) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM Author: Seedy titillating school friendly grandma March is very accurate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30070601) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM Author: Chestnut Fluffy Private Investor Mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30119676) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30119337) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM Author: bateful school cafeteria http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30140474) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM Author: Vivacious Iridescent Philosopher-king Karate Lol,holy Fuck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30140513) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30144174) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: obsidian macaca jesus. . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30151942) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM Author: Chestnut Fluffy Private Investor Mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30151965) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM Author: walnut water buffalo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30151975) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Painfully honest stage turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31172540) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: adulterous rebellious locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: Ultramarine Indirect Expression lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30160689) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Ultramarine Indirect Expression "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Ultramarine Indirect Expression interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: blathering buck-toothed menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30279158) |
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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30307876) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: lavender resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30310760) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM Author: Odious black bawdyhouse I love this thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30310807) |
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Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30335375) |
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Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30346848) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30353572) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM Author: slippery ruby university nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30353587) |
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Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM Author: provocative hot lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30378951) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: brindle big-titted national legend Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: brindle big-titted national legend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: Chestnut Fluffy Private Investor Mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: Motley antidepressant drug jew holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30398720) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: autistic bonkers senate halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30402170) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30405223) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Indecent Shimmering Potus 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30405346) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: Marvelous Base Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: orchid personal credit line LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Frum alpha hunting ground Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: free-loading sapphire location persian This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Domesticated cruel-hearted sanctuary factory reset button In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: free-loading sapphire location persian cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: orchid personal credit line lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: orchid personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: contagious spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Painfully honest stage turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: Indecent Shimmering Potus 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: citrine haunting indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: Glittery violet messiness Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Talking zippy azn community account Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Ultramarine Indirect Expression amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: orchid personal credit line Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: orchid personal credit line THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: Indecent Shimmering Potus holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: orchid personal credit line I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Hairraiser slimy stock car LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: orchid personal credit line THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: Indecent Shimmering Potus 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Indecent Shimmering Potus lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Ultramarine Indirect Expression ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Fuchsia parlour Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: maroon arousing home twinkling uncleanness September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: frozen tantric place of business half-breed September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: insecure laughsome goal in life god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Fantasy-prone hall XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle Puce Parlor Electric Furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: submissive space fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: submissive space fortuitous meteor The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Indecent Shimmering Potus let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: orchid personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Indecent Shimmering Potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Seedy titillating school friendly grandma This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: Bespoke Fragrant Chapel Foreskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Orange Exciting Brunch Candlestick Maker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Ultramarine Indirect Expression http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Fuchsia parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: Indecent Shimmering Potus 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: Odious black bawdyhouse This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: blathering buck-toothed menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: swashbuckling gold plaza kitty (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Indecent Shimmering Potus hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Light shrine wrinkle Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Indecent Shimmering Potus doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Cyan misunderstood theatre rigpig half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Ultramarine Indirect Expression nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Talking zippy azn community account close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Painfully honest stage turdskin Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Fantasy-prone hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: mustard lettuce market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: heady hyperactive stag film liquid oxygen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Ultramarine Indirect Expression prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Know-it-all Voyeur Center You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Ultramarine Indirect Expression true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: orchid personal credit line ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Ultramarine Indirect Expression ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: harsh box office mental disorder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Mahogany toaster Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Razzle Arrogant Area (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: submissive space fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: orchid personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: Passionate dog poop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: maroon arousing home twinkling uncleanness (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: comical blue whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: orchid personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Fantasy-prone hall GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: Passionate dog poop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Talking zippy azn community account it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: Marvelous Base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: smoky field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: racy grizzly masturbator (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: aphrodisiac snowy house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: mauve histrionic church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: stubborn tattoo stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Cowardly dragon tank Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: Hyperventilating naked locus mad cow disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: zombie-like fanboi 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: smoky field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Painfully honest stage turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: orchid personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: free-loading sapphire location persian this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: Indecent Shimmering Potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: Medicated Diverse Pervert (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: orchid personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Claret Exhilarant Institution Idiot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Beady-eyed Thirsty Business Firm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: orchid personal credit line November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Supple coldplay fan you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Up-to-no-good pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: coral excitant library Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: insecure laughsome goal in life bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: rose station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: orchid personal credit line sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Ultramarine Indirect Expression ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Umber Jet-lagged Son Of Senegal Trust Fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: submissive space fortuitous meteor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: Chrome site They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: Mind-boggling Magical Incel Organic Girlfriend Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: aphrodisiac snowy house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: mauve histrionic church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: orchid personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: Effete Corner Ladyboy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Cyan misunderstood theatre rigpig GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: misanthropic curious point https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: insecure laughsome goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: Effete Corner Ladyboy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: orchid personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Aromatic Really Tough Guy October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: orchid personal credit line ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Aromatic Really Tough Guy ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: orchid personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: insecure laughsome goal in life truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Chestnut Fluffy Private Investor Mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Aromatic Really Tough Guy https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Aromatic Really Tough Guy http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: swashbuckling gold plaza kitty TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Aromatic Really Tough Guy It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: violent avocado wagecucks I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: swashbuckling gold plaza kitty it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Aromatic Really Tough Guy The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Aromatic Really Tough Guy https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Aromatic Really Tough Guy https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Aromatic Really Tough Guy https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Aromatic Really Tough Guy https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Aromatic Really Tough Guy https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Aromatic Really Tough Guy https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Aromatic Really Tough Guy https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Lascivious brilliant ticket booth doctorate this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Fantasy-prone hall One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: adulterous rebellious locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: orchid personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: orchid personal credit line What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: orchid personal credit line https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Chestnut Fluffy Private Investor Mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: nubile fishy casino idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: orchid personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: big drab public bath credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: twinkling circlehead psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: cream overrated tanning salon fat ankles (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: flickering trip gas station blood rage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Chestnut Fluffy Private Investor Mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: Indecent Shimmering Potus Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Chestnut Fluffy Private Investor Mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: orchid personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: insecure laughsome goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Chestnut Fluffy Private Investor Mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: Razzle-dazzle Puce Parlor Electric Furnace (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: walnut water buffalo It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: orchid personal credit line lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: insecure laughsome goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: frozen tantric place of business half-breed Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: out-of-control new version crackhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: insecure laughsome goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: adulterous rebellious locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: insecure laughsome goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: crystalline boistinker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: orchid personal credit line Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: out-of-control new version crackhouse There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: Talented lime kitchen gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Fantasy-prone hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: orchid personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Razzmatazz Bistre Trailer Park Prole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: contagious spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: orchid personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: orchid personal credit line https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: contagious spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: wild roast beef office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: contagious spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Fantasy-prone hall (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Sexy splenetic round eye Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: abnormal galvanic native sound barrier (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: Erotic at-the-ready abode cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: Talented lime kitchen gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Chestnut Fluffy Private Investor Mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: Soul-stirring rough-skinned police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: smoky field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Flesh well-lubricated temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Flesh well-lubricated temple https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: emerald sandwich (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: orchid personal credit line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: adulterous rebellious locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: Talented lime kitchen gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Chestnut Fluffy Private Investor Mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: salmon legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: hairless (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: Shivering Depressive 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Sexy splenetic round eye A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: orchid personal credit line Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: orchid personal credit line https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: free-loading sapphire location persian why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: Erotic at-the-ready abode cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Orange Exciting Brunch Candlestick Maker FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: Erotic at-the-ready abode cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: Erotic at-the-ready abode cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Sexy splenetic round eye One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: Erotic at-the-ready abode cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: mauve histrionic church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: Marvelous Base 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: Marvelous Base https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle Puce Parlor Electric Furnace Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: mauve histrionic church The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: Electric He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: Soggy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: preventive strike 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: pale weed whacker Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: Lascivious brilliant ticket booth doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: Lemon dopamine party of the first part ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
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Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: partner i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |
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Date: August 11th, 2026 2:24 AM Author: Soggy Weird how 99% of the internet disappeared one day (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2phpsessid=49d358651c#50060136) |