Date: August 18th, 2026 12:33 PM
Author: gunneratttt (gunneratttt)
Source?
**No, housing prices have not turned negative in a majority of U.S. states, and they have not declined nationally over the past two years.** National indices continue to show modest year-over-year gains (typically ~1–2%), though growth has slowed sharply from pandemic-era rates, with clear regional divergence: strength in much of the Midwest and Northeast, and softness or declines in parts of the Sun Belt, Mountain West, and some other markets.
### Recent state-level picture (primarily FHFA House Price Index data for Q1 2026, with supporting evidence from other sources into mid-2026)
- Of the 50 states, **roughly 42 posted positive year-over-year appreciation** in Q1 2026, while **about 8 states plus the District of Columbia declined**. Appreciation ranged from roughly +7.3% (Illinois) to –2.4% (Colorado).
- Declining or weakest states in recent data have commonly included Colorado, Texas, Florida, Louisiana, Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and a few others (exact rankings vary slightly by source and period; Zillow-based reports sometimes show additional softness in places like Nevada or Arizona). Gains have been strongest in Midwest and Northeast states.
- Later mid-2026 snapshots (e.g., Quantarium TerraIndex through July) indicate roughly one in four states with year-over-year depreciation, still far from a majority. Month-over-month readings can look weaker in some summer periods due to seasonal patterns.
National FHFA readings have remained positive (e.g., ~1.7–1.8% YoY in recent periods into spring/summer 2026). Case-Shiller national index readings have also shown low-single-digit nominal gains (around 1% or slightly higher in various recent months), though often lagging inflation and thus negative in real (inflation-adjusted) terms.
### Metro and listing-price nuance
- Among large metros, a substantial minority (sometimes ~1/3 of the top 100, or higher shares in certain snapshots) have posted annual declines, concentrated in former high-growth Sun Belt and Western markets (e.g., Austin, parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast, Denver, Las Vegas). Many Midwest and Northeast metros have continued rising.
- Median *listing* prices (Realtor.com data) have shown clearer year-over-year declines in some recent months (e.g., –2.4% nationally in May 2026, the steepest in that series since 2017), with weakness broader across regions. Listing prices can diverge from closed-sale indices due to composition, price cuts, and inventory shifts.
### Over the past two years
National home-price indices (FHFA, Case-Shiller) have continued to rise, albeit at a much slower pace than in 2020–2022. There has been no broad national decline over a two-year window. Local corrections have occurred in specific markets that saw extreme pandemic-era run-ups, often alongside rising inventory, higher insurance costs (in places like Florida), or affordability pressures. Real (inflation-adjusted) prices have been softer or negative in some periods.
In short, the market is highly uneven and has cooled significantly from prior peaks in many areas, with outright declines in a minority of states and a larger share of metros. It is not accurate to say prices have turned negative in a majority of states or declined nationally over the past two years. Data sources (FHFA purchase-only HPI, Case-Shiller, Zillow ZHVI, Realtor.com listings) differ slightly in methodology and timing, so exact counts can vary, but the overall pattern is consistent across recent reports.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5894389&forum_id=2~#50075615)